Fallout from the WTC attacks

by brian J. požun, october 2001

Though thousands of miles away, repercussions of the 11 September terrorist attacks on the United States have impacted Slovenia. Fallout from the shocking events has already been felt and there will most likely be long-term effects in several areas, from domestic and foreign policies to economics to national security.

In the wake of the attacks, official Slovenia's response followed that of other European countries. President Milan Kučan, Prime Minister Janez Drnovšek and other leaders denounced the terrorist acts and offered support and condolences to the people of the United States. A national day of mourning was declared on 14 September and flags flew at half-mast throughout the country.

Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel and his staff took to the American proposal for a global coalition against terrorism, and quickly set about formulating ways to help. Rupel told POP-TV that the country's most likely role would be in the exchange of intelligence information and police and military cooperation.

Military cooperation is unlikely, however. Other than standard ground troops, the only specialized unit of interest to NATO would be the Bohinjska Bela Mountain Brigade. Though they are highly trained for combat in Alpine terrain, the mountains of Afghanistan are considerably higher than the Julian Alps and the boys of Bohinjska Bela would not have much of an advantage.

Given that the Slovene government does not have strong ties to Central Asia or the Middle East, cooperation in the fields of diplomacy or information services is also limited. But that said, the country may still have a useful role to play. Should the war on terrorism require NATO to scale back its operations in Kosovo, Bosnia or Macedonia, Slovenia would be ideal to help pick up the slack. The army has extensive experience in peacekeeping operations, and an intimate knowledge of the former Yugoslavia. These are advantages no other country could offer.

Another problem stemming from the events in the United States is the fact that Slovenia's bid for European Union membership may be affected. Ljubljana should be ready to join the EU by 2003, but it is unclear whether Brussels is now more, or less, inclined to take on new members.

Expansion could lead to heightened European security overall. Senior EU enlargement negotiator Graham Avery told Reuters that expansion is one way the Union could contribute to the war on terrorism. The solidarity and stability EU membership would bring, along with the strengthening of border controls as part of the Schengen agreement could help overall European security. However, global economic trends are making expansion more costly.

But regardless of whether the timetable for taking on new members is altered, Slovenia's bid may be complicated indirectly by the attacks. One of the EU's constant criticisms is the country's slow rate of privatization. Plans to privatize one of the major state holdings, Telekom Slovenija, have now been put on hold because of "unfavorable economic conditions," exacerbated by the international crisis. Instead of privatizing 65 percent this year as planned, the government now may wait until even 2003.

The strain on the global economy has had other repercussions in Slovenia as well. Predictions of a 4.2 percent economic growth rate in 2002 are being refigured, according to the daily Finance. Many sectors, including transportation, tourism and the automotive industry, are expecting hard times, which will impact the country's growth overall.

It is Slovenia's bid for NATO membership that stands to lose the most. The country expected to join the military alliance in 1999, with the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, but was overlooked. That slight only strengthened the politicians' resolve, though the general public remains skeptical.

The next group of new members expected invitations at the NATO summit next year in Prague. But in light of recent events, further NATO enlargement seems unlikely. The support of Russia is now far more important to the United States than that of any of the top candidates for NATO membership - Slovenia, Slovakia and the three Baltic states. And again, given the state of the global economy, expansion would be more costly both to NATO and to the new members.

Having escaped the bloody wars fought throughout its former fraternal republics in Yugoslavia, Slovenia has a reputation as a stable, peaceful country. An act of vandalism a week after the attacks on the United States – Lep pozdrav - Osama bin Laden (All the best - Osama bin Laden) – graffitied on an Adria Airways plane in a secure area of Ljubljana's Brnik airport gave airport officials a scare. The suspect is a mischievous young Slovene and security found nothing otherwise wrong with the plane, but international circumstances could lead to much more threatening incidents.

With NATO bombing Afghanistan, the temporary NATO installation at Slovenia's port of Koper could find itself a target. The logistical base at Koper operated for about a month this summer and was closed on 5 October, but there are plans to make it a regular month-long event twice a year.

And NATO activity in Slovenia is far from the only threat to national security. An extensive network of former paramilitaries and criminals throughout the former Yugoslavia has connections in Slovenia and shady links to Osama bin Laden. This network is responsible for much of the traffic in drugs and human beings that goes through Slovenia, but could represent a terrorist threat to all of the former Yugoslavia and surrounding countries.

One of the first links to Osama bin Laden appeared in a 1992 arms smuggling debacle. That September, four aircraft from Khartoum, Sudan, landed at Maribor's airport. Security checks revealed the planes' cargo was not humanitarian aid, but 130 tons of weapons destined for Bosnia, then under an arms embargo.

Investigations revealed that the arms were ordered by Elfatih Hassanein, a Sudanese citizen and head of the Third World Relief Agency (TWRA), a Vienna-based humanitarian organization. In 1996, the Washington Post revealed that TWRA was supported by Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman, who was indicted in the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York, and that the organization was financed by Osama bin Laden, who was living in Sudan in the early 1990s. The Slovene security and intelligence service was also implicated, along with people close to President Kučan and Bosnian president Alija Izetbegović, but ultimately no one was convicted.

Slovenia's internationally renowned cultural theorist Slavoj Žižek, in his essay entitled "Reflections on the WTC," wrote that the phrase "Nothing will be the same after September 11" is empty and meaningless. "Is it, rather, not that the only thing that effectively changed was that America was forced to realize the kind of world it was part of?"

Unfortunately, it looks like Žižek is wrong. International politics and economics have also changed, requiring even Slovenia to adjust. The country's security situation will immediately change should NATO troops leave the Balkans, and its foreign policy will have to be redrawn if membership in either the EU or NATO is not secured. And not only has Slovenia created a likely terrorist target by inviting NATO into Koper, but it also has a potential threat already on the ground in the country. For now, that threat is unlikely, but in the event of a drawn out war, all that could change.