BURIED within the mass of data now referred to as the World Thoroughbred Racehorse Rankings there is usually a message. It is not an incontrovertible message as far as 2005 is concerned, but it is there nevertheless, writes James Willoughby.

In 1977, the International Classifications were born. These annual ratings were a predecessor of the WTRR and first enabled us to get a handle on the strength of thoroughbred talent across Europe.

The following year, the first classification for two-year-olds was produced, which showed Tromos as the leading juvenile of his generation. The Bruce Hobbs-trained colt was rated 131 and the 20th best horse was rated 123.

Something even more startling than the devastating Dewhurst winner was observed in 1978. Scientists noticed that there was a hole in the ozone layer that could result in a decline in the stability of the planet.

As tends to happen when a negative issue is raised, the major government scientists went into denial. This was only conjecture, they insisted. So the world continued as it had before, except that the use of harmful CFCs actually went up.

By 1985, everyone faced up to the truth. Newmeasures showed worse damage than was originally detected. The ozone layer was severely depleted, and it was time to start taking this issue seriously. In that year, the Vienna Convention was adopted to formalise international co-operation.

Meanwhile, a colt called Bakharoff, trained by Guy Harwood, was adjudged to be the most talented youngster in Europe by the official handicappers. He was rated 123, and the 20th best horse was now rated only 116.

By 2005, developed countries had taken the hole in the ozone layer very seriously. They have halted the production of CFCs, and the US Environmental Protection Agency has now insisted that the ozone layer will recover within 50 years.

In the same 20-year period, however, the hole in the European two-year-old ratings has continued to widen. In 2005, the outstanding George Washington headed the numbers on 124, but the 20th best horse was rated just 113.

If the official ratings of two-year-olds provided an objective measure of the decline of the Europeanthoroughbred, horseracing would have a problem of comparable size to the one that faced environmentalists. Thankfully, it is obvious that the approach to rating two-year-olds has changed somewhat within the period under consideration. But does this account for the decline?

Establishing an answer to that question in a rigid, mathematical manner is impossible because of the limitations of the data. Even if the official ratings were comparable, it would still be unscientific to infer a decline by the method used above. Population dynamics demand that we need a better mathematical measure of the entire crop than just the rating of the 20th best horse.

Unfortunately, taking a wider sweep of data is hardly any more beneficial. We must be wary of using any kind of mean figure of the entire crop, or any large portion of it, because the make-up of the population has changed.

There are more horses in training now than there were 27 years ago, and the numerical strength has been added to the middle and lower tiers by factors such as overproduction of yearlings and the increasing incentives to keep poor horses in training offered by the racing programme. The mean is therefore non-standard across generations.

If we can’t be certain of establishing a sound mathematical comparison of the relative strength of two-year-old racing now and in 1978, there is at least enough circumstantial evidence to be sure of this: juvenile racing in Europe certainly isn’t getting any better.

In 2005, the impression that Kevin Ryan is a superb trainer was underlined by his two Group 1-winning juvenile colts, Amadeus Wolf and Palace Episode. Given the proven statistical link between a horse’s yearling sales price – or its notional production costs inthe case of home-breds – and its merit, Ryan’s accomplishment would seem staggeringly unlikely in the light of his relative spending power.

Unless, of course, the general level of juvenile accomplishment during 2005 is nothing like a reflection of the latent talent of horses aged two. In other words, some of those who were either lightly raced or did not race at all could have brought about a big change to the ratings if pushed earlier.

Are horses now being brought along more slowly? Do trainers wantto keep their talented youngsters unexposed? Not one juvenile rated 110 or above is in the care of Saeed Bin Suroor or Sir Michael Stoute, who between them have simply incredible resources.

It’s as simple as this: you cannot assert that the breed is indecline from any mathematical extrapolation of two-year-old ratings, but the number of horses achieving exalted figures is definitely on a downward trend. That may be just the vagaries of handicapping fashion, or there may be an underlying reason why horses do not get the opportunity to post top-class figures.

Note the distinction. Ratings are an expression of what horses have achieved, not the maximum of which they are capable. Let’s throw around some possible influences that may have an impact in keeping the numbers down.

Take a horse notionally rated 125. Its potential for achieving this figure is limited by factors such as the environment in which it was raised, the skill of its trainer and its soundness. On the last issue, consider that in orderto penetrate the top class a horse must withstand a series of races, from which it derives experience and conditioning. Some horses get there fast, but the majority have a mountain to climb that demands a significant degree of physical robustness.

Now,a small decline in the soundness of the average thoroughbred – such as that which breeding experts postulate has occurred – would be felt most keenly by the group of horses with the innate potential to reach ratings in the 120s. It is they who have to gothrough the most stress by running at the highest speed.

It would be good to know answers to the questions suggested by the European two-year-old ratings; it would be reassuring to find that there really are lots of high-class horses waiting to be discovered this year; it would provide great succour to everybody who loves the sport that Flat racing is as good as ever.

Scientists wanted to reassure themselves about the ozone layer in just the same way, but it turned out that it really did have a hole in it when examined more closely. It is to be hoped that Flat racing is not of a similar composition.

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