| Population Studies - Town of Camp Verde and
Lake Montezuma / Rimrock area. Written by Roger Doering Jan 2008 Camp 1998 DES 2001 RPD 2006 DES 2006 DES 2006 DES Year Verde Projections Projection Projection Projection Projection Only CV and CV and CV only LM CV and LM/RIM LM/RIM LM/RIM 1980 3824 4324 1990 8084 8084 2000 9451 11179 12795 9451 3344 12795 2001 census census census census census 2002 2003 Averaged 2004 Curve Fit 2,005 Roger's 2006 methods 11779 4237 16016 2007 12163 4385 16548 2008 12539 4529 17068 2009 12908 4670 17578 2010 14483 17960 13270 4809 18079 2011 sdev 2022 13626 4946 18572 2012 13975 5080 19055 2013 14320 5212 19532 2014 14657 5342 19999 2015 14990 5469 20459 2016 15316 5594 20910 2017 15635 5717 21352 2018 15948 5837 21785 2019 16253 5954 22207 2020 17778 24932 16550 6068 22618 2021 sdev 5290 16840 6179 23019 2022 17123 6288 23411 2023 17400 6394 23794 2024 17669 6497 24166 2025 17932 6598 24530 2026 18186 6696 24882 2027 18434 6791 25225 2028 18673 6883 25556 2029 18906 6972 25878 2030 20567 33920 19131 7059 26190 sdev11375 Arizona 2006 DES Population Projections http://www.workforce.az.gov/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=138 Library Size Projections for the Camp Verde Library District Written by Roger Doering Jan. 2008 The Camp Verde Library Advisory Commission in studying the population projections made in 1998 by the Arizona Department of Economic Security (DES) noticed that the Year 2000 United States Census showed considerably higher population than DES had predicted. Hence various methods were used to attempt to predict growth and to take into account the year 2000 census. DES did not come out with a projection taking the Y2000 census into account until 2006. In 2001, I projected the rate of growth and differential growth rates between DES and the Census data by various methods and then took an average of all the methods including the 1998 DES projection. The standard deviation was computed for the data as well which is given in this table. When the library commission was projecting population 20 years into the future, it was this averaged population study that I did that was used. In the year 2020 the average population was predicted to be 25,000 people in Camp Verde / Lake Montezuma and Rimrock with a standard deviation of roughly 5,000. From this projection, the Wisconsin standard was used. This method projects the population 20 years into the future and determines a size based on per capita demand for library service. The Wisconsin Exemplary standard called for one square foot per capita in 20 years from the time that planning begins for a new library. In 2001, this meant that 25,000 to 30,000 sq feet would be needed using the high side of the bell curve. Now in 2008, the Arizona DES has made new projections which predict 25,556 population in 2028 for the combined areas of Camp Verde and Lake Montezuma / Rimrock. Refer to population data in Population Studies Table. Notice that my 2001 projection showed that in 2020 the population to be 24,932 which is very close to the current 2008 DES 20 year projection showing that in 2028 we will have a population of 25,556. The delay in getting the library built has brought the results of these two methods together so that the projection made by the Commission in 2001 is right on target in terms of the latest (2006) DES population projection. How big does the Camp Verde Library need to be? To determine this, we need to ask what is the service population of the Camp Verde Community Library? The Camp Verde Library got its start well before there was a Town established in Camp Verde. The area served by this library is not only Camp Verde, but also Lake Montezuma and Rimrock. By combining the populations of Camp Verde and Lake Montezuma and Rimrock we arrived at the estimated 20 year service population of 25,556. This is the current service population. However, a group of residents in the Lake Montezuma / Rimrock area asked for a local library of their own. The Camp Verde library director met with them and spoke with the Yavapai County Library district and the district made funds available for a local branch to be established in that area operating under the management of the Camp Verde Library. At the present, this branch is funded by County funds. Should the County funding cease, the funding source would revert back to the Camp Verde Library. At that time would this branch library continue to operate or be absorbed into the Camp Verde Library? Or would a separate library district with taxing authority be established in Lake Montezuma / Rimrock? This area is inside Yavapai County, but outside the Camp Verde Town Limits. Raising the question of how it would be financed if the County were to cease their funding. This question needs further review and determination when planning for a new Camp Verde Library to determine if the Camp Verde Library needs to plan for space to continue to service Lake Montezuma / Rimrock or if it should scale back its requirements to merely serve the population of Camp Verde. Since the report was made by the Commission to Council in 2001, the state of Wisconsin has modified its library standards as presented on its web sites. They present more data in terms of staffing, collection size, etc. that are recommended and are not as direct in terms of overall space needs as they had been. They list links to several standards in the library field, the most direct one being from the state of Kentucky. In their standards, there are three service categories for libraries. Essential, Enhanced, and Exemplary. The type of community and its demand for service will determine which of these categories apply to any given municipality. The size requirements for an Essential library call for a size serving a population up to 25,000 of the greater of 7,000 sq ft or 0.7 sq ft per capita. For population above 25,000 the essential standard calls for the greater of 17,500 sq ft or 0.7 sq ft per capita. For the Enhanced category the standards call for 0.8 sq ft per capita and for the Exemplary category one sq ft per capita. Parking for an Essential category calls for one space per 500 sq ft of building space. Parking for Enhanced libraries calls for one space per 400 sq ft and for an Exemplary library one space per 300 sq ft. The Camp Verde parking standards are more stringent. Going back to the data and making applications, how big do we need for the Camp Verde Library? If we need to continue serving Lake Montezuma / Rimrock and Camp Verde and do not make any allowance for the local branch being started in Lake Montezuma / Rimrock we will then use a service population of 25,556. An Essential library would then be 17,500 square feet. An Enhanced Library would be 20,444 square feet, and an Exemplary Library would be 25,556 square feet. If on the other hand we assume that Lake Montezuma / Rimrock is going to support and build up their own local branch library to where the Camp Verde Library no longer services this area, then the service population would be 18,673. This is the population projected by DES for Camp Verde alone in 2028. To service this population, an Essential category library will be 13,071. An Enhanced library should be 14,938 sq ft and an Exemplary library would be 18,673 square feet. Let's look at the Lake Montezuma / Rimrock branch operation. What level of service is it providing and what will it be capable of providing for the future? They now have a computer terminal that can be used to search the catalog files in the county to find materials, place holds and order items to be delivered to the branch. Patrons can pick up items ordered and drop off items to be checked into the system. There is little or no reading space nor collection space for storage of items. Presently, it isn't doing a lot to help with the demand for space required by residents of Lake Montezuma and Rimrock at the Camp Verde Library. What size should a branch library in Lake Montezuma and Rimrock be if it is to meet current library standards? In 2008, the 20 year future population for Lake Montezuma and Rimrock is projected by DES to be 6883. The size of this branch should be for Essential service 4818 sq ft, (or 7000 sq ft) Enhanced 5506 and Exemplary 6883 sq ft. The standard calls for 7000 sq ft minimum for under 25,000 population. This branch is in its infancy and nowhere near this level of service so they are not going to reduce the demand for service in Camp Verde any time soon. Only as they grow and put up a 5000 to 7000 sq ft library with collection, staffing etc could they cut the demand for space at the Camp Verde library. The present satelite library service with computer terminal to search for materials and place holds and pick up / drop off of materials may provide for minimual library service but it will not replace the need for a local balanced collection and reading room. If usage does not support continued operation, patrons can visit the Camp Verde library. In looking at the data, the difference between serving Camp Verde only and the entire Canp Verrde/ Lake Montezuma//Rimrock district is essentially 5,000 sq ft. Therefore, the impact of serving patrons in Lake Montezuma and Rimrock on the Camp Verde Library is 5,000 square feet needed in a new library. What one could do is design and build an Enhanced Service level building in Camp Verde of 20,000 sq ft with building pad of 30,000 sq ft for future growth. This includes space to service the entire area including Lake Montezuma and Rimrock along with Camp Verde. How would Lake Montezuma / Rimrock residents help pay their share of the cost of construction of the 5,000 sq ft of space required by the Camp Verde library to service their needs? This requires more study, but there are three options, One is set up a taxing authority to tax Lake Montezuma / Rimrock residents in some way and through an IGA transfer the funds to the Town of Camp Verde to administer the construction. Second is to set up a Camp Verde / Lake Montezuma / Rimrock Library district to administer construction and operation of library services in the area. Third is for Camp Verde to annex the area so that the borders of the Library District and the Town are the same. All these options require approval of the various citizens and entities involved. Funding option one, to help with the cost the Camp Verde Library could ask the Yavapai County Library District (YCLN) to set up a taxing authority to collect a tax to pay the Town of Camp Verde for construction cost of 5,000 sq ft at the Camp Verde Library . This will likely require a vote of the populace in that area. They should also collect taxes used for the support of the "satelite" office in Lake Monteauma / Rimrock if it proves to have enough demand to continue. If they should turn the construction asessment down then Camp Verde could build a 15,000 sq ft library but it would not solve the problem of Lake Montezuma / Rimrock residents coming to the CV library adding to it service population and need for space. We are the YCLN Camp Verde / Lake Montezuma / Rimrock library district in essence as this is the complete operation and service area that the Canp Verde Community library has been serving since its inception and should continue to provide unless Lake Monteauma / Rimrock votes to and actually builds and operates a library sufficient to service the needs of the area. Lake Monteauma/ / Rimrock should either provide funds to Camp Verde for construction costs of 5,000 sq ft of a new library or fund construction and operation costs of a 7,000 sq ft library of their own. If it goes to an election these options should be stressed as the only viable options. Not funding either one is not practical as their will continue to be demand for service from one or the other which creates costs that the public in that area should be responsible for. Another option would be for the County to set up a Camp Verde / Lake Montezuma / Rimrock Library District which would have officers voted from the public that would have authority to operate all libraries in the district. They would have the ability to hire and dismiss employees, collect tax funds for library M & O as well as new construction. They could oversee construction of new libraries. In this way the CV/LM/RIM Library district would cover the entire area served and not have Camp Verde with authority over its part but then having to work with the County to get income from the rest of the population that it was serving. We are now getting M & O income from the County in the way of property tax revenue based on the percentage of circulation that the Camp Verde Library has of the total Circulation of all materials in the County. This does not cover cost of construction which would require a separate revenue source. Such a Library District is responsible to the public and would be an administrative board rather than an advisory board as the Commission now is with the Council and Town Manager being the Administrative board. This option requires a lot of reorganization and don't know how well it would work in the long run. A third option is for Camp Verde to annex LM/Rim but I don't think that the residents there want to be annexed and it would have an uphill battle getting it voted to do so. These are the options to share the responsibility of this area to the residents to pay for services being provided to them. These three options are ways for the residents of the entire area served by the library to support the library utilizing the city and county governmental authorities. These are merely ways that this writer has knowledge of that could be employed. This is not an endorsement of any option! !! Before any option were to used, it would require approval of those entities involved and in some cases require a vote of the people. The purpose of this article is only to address the size needs. The details of governance are up to others to determine what shall be done. Getting back to issues of size needs. Keep in mind that these standards are based on planning at the current date and that if there is further delay, the population will continue to grow and demand will outpace the size of what is constructed so it is important that the project move along expediently. An additional square footage may be factored in as a cushion against future growth during the planning process. DES projections were low in the 2000 census and could be low again in 2028. In the Commission visits to other libraries, they mentioned that we should not build too small or we end up having to build an addition not long later. This is the basic bare bones data from which informed decisions can be made in selecting a library size. Where are we at now in terms of capacity to service the existing population? Working backwards on the planning methodology. We have roughly 4,500 square feet of space now. Based on 0.7 square feet per capita, this building is sized to handle 6,428 population at base or essential service level. We are well above this population so a new library is long overdo. Sometime around 1988 the library reached full capacity to service Camp Verde and Lake Montezuma / Rimrock. We are 20 years behind now, planning for a library to service a population for 20 years into the future, a 40 year stretch. This underscores the need for a new library sufficiently sized for the future of Camp Verde. What level of service is needed for Camp Verde? The definition in the standards state that Essential is the minimum standard which should be available to all. Enhanced is an expansion of service above the basic (or essential). Exemplary formerly comprehensive is the highest level of service. For further information look at the web for various state library standards. Some are listed below. Kentucky Public Library Standards http://www.kdla.ky.gov/libsupport/standards/manual.pdf Wisconsin Public Library Standards http://www.dpi.state.wi.us/pld/chapter1.html Colorado Public Library Standards http://www.cde.state.co.us/cdelib/Standards/pdf/FinalCopy_WithCoverandAppendices_RevisedJuly11.pdf Texas Public Library Standards http://www.tsl.state.tx.us/plstandards/ Yavapai County Library District http://www.co.yavapai.az.us/library.aspx Size data Projection Summary 20 years growth based on 2006 DES population projections Serving Camp Verde only expecting Lake Montezuma / Rimrock to provide their own branch library : Service Population: 18,673 Essential Size: 13,100 sq ft Enhanced Size: 15,000 sq ft Exemplary Size: 18,700 sq ft This requires Lake Montezuma / Rimrock to build and operate a 7,000 sq ft library. One Camp Verde Library serving the combined areas of Camp Verde and Lake Montezuma / Rimrock : Service Population: 25,556 Essential Size: 17,500 sq ft Enhanced Size: 20,500 sq ft Exemplary Size: 25,600 sq ft. The impact of Lake Montezuma / Rimrock on the CV Library is the cost of constructing 5,000 sq ft What size should we pick? The Commission has in the past without having the benefit of the 2006 DES updated statistics nor more recent standards however, come up with some pretty good recommendations. The recommendation of the Commission changed as more information came in. It was first around 18,000 sq ft based on the 1998 DES projections. When the census data came out and I did my projects, we discussed a minimum of 20,000 to 26,000 with room for growth up to 30,000 sq ft. In the minutes for June 21, 2001 the Commission voted to recommend 26,000 sq ft. Right on target for an Exemplary Camp Verde Library serving Camp Verde, Lake Montezuma and Rimrock. This was before there was any thought to a branch in Lake Montezuma / Rimrock. There has been no further size recommendation recently which is needed to take into account the latest DES figures and to discuss the impact of Lake Montezuma / Rimrock Branch library. The vote of the Commission stands at 26,000 sq ft. Together lets plan well for the future of the Camp Verde Library. ********************************************************************************* Note: The method of determing size listed above is based solely upon population of the service area. There are standards which take into account the size of the collection and how much space is needed to house it. The number of seats needed for reading areas, computer terminals, etc. along with the population of the service area. The state of Texas in particular uses this method as do some in Wisconsin. The method listed above is based soley upon population and is easier to understand. A list of space allocations which the Commission worked out in 2001 for a 26,000 square foot library is found on the Conceptual Plan page of this website. Click on the blue underlined words "Conceptual Plan" to go to this page. The space allocations are listed starting about half way down the page DIGITAL LIBRARY IMPACT ON SPACE: There is a trend in libraries, primarily those larger than ours in research oriented communities to digitize their collection and acquire future materials in digital format. There will always be a portion of the collection in paper form but there will be a day when some materials are stored on CD or other digital formats. There are studies relating to size and cost for digital vs paper. The main study listed belows shows that digital materials take up 30 to 60% of the equivalent space for print media. Equipment occupies 30 % less to 20 % more space, labor costs are at 60 to 80 % of that for print, and Materials 35 to 80 % of paper. Overall the cost is less and the digital collection is more compact. It would be wise planning for the library to begin putting some of its collection in digital format and acquire new materials in digital rather than print media. By utilizing digital resources, the space needs would be in proportion to the percentage of digital resources. In 25,000 sq ft library our collection area would take up roughly 7500 sq ft. If half the collection was digital, the digital half would take up instead of 3750 sq ft that the paper half has, only 1125 to 2250 sq ft. A space savings of 1500 to 2625 sq ft. 89.5 to 95.5 % overall of a totally print library. What one would do is to build the same space as for 100% print and be able to store 62,500 - 125,000 volumes in digital format and 37,500 volumes in print. The print section would occupy 3750 sq ft and the digital would take up the same, but you can see that there would be many more volumes in the same space in digital. It is clear that the library needs to begin a digital collection to save cost and space. Not only books, but back issues of magazines and newspapers in digital would be a great space savings and easier to access. Several studies are listed as follows: Study Comparing Paper and Digital Media - Space, Labor, Material Costs Digital Inititives Phase 2 Overall Plan Digital Initiatives Phase 2 Resources Blog Comparing Digital and Physical Libraries and needs for both in a Community Wikipedia Digital Library info University of Arizona Digital Library Resources Digital Library Research Arizona State Library Digital Library Resources GO TO CONCEPTUAL PLAN RETURN TO MY LINKS PAGE RETURN TO HOME PAGE |
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