Season 7 Playoff Predictions

Foreword

Just a note before I begin. It was extremely hard for me to do the AL portion of the playoff preview this season since my team is involved. Worse, my team is one of the favorites based on the regular season record. I tried to be as objective as possible, though it is unavoidable that I write more about my Orioles since I am more familiar with them. Please excuse any signs of favoritism. I tried my best to keep this open minded and I hope it came out OK.

Detroit at Baltimore

OFFENSE – Baltimore comes in with the top offense in League C, scoring 953 runs. The secret to their success is getting men on base. A league high .367 OBP ensures that there is a steady flow of baserunners for the O’ power hitters. Seven Oriole hitters drove in 90+ runs led by MVP candidate and AL batting champ Milt Gardner (.326, 21 HR, 138 RBI) and Rankin Gaffke (.281, 29, 126). There is also plenty of speed at the top (and bottom) of the lineup in the form of Ray Edler (45 SB), Koshorek (37) and Demeter (17 in 81 games). The Detroit offensive philosophy entails home runs and only home runs. All 9 of Detroit’s offensive starters hit 20+ homers with Bob Pitt (.255, 34, 116) and Cam Gallagher (.259, 32, 105) leading the way. Despite a few 30+ SB guys, they acquired an AL low 150 SB. They also hit only 108 doubles, second from worst. Truly this is a one trick pony.

Advantage: Gallagher is hurt for the series, but that likely wouldn’t have given Detroit an advantage. BALTIMORE has a slight advantage here.

PITCHING/DEFENSE – Detroit will be starting shoe-in Cy Young winner Joe Schilling in Games 1 & 5. Despite his lofty numbers, Detroit may actually be at a pitching disadvantage in those games with Gary Mays going for the O’s. Mays pitched to an amazing 2.45 ERA while compiling a 17-6 record. Aside from Mays, Vangorder and Morrison make a respectable #2 & #3 respectively. The loss of co-ace Steve Bonin for the series will be felt in Game 4 as Skeeter Reichert will be called upon. In the bullpen, the Orioles are well-equipped with Mike Somerville being the anchor. His 37 saves and 3.14 ERA are among the tops in the league. McNamara and Curry provide extremely capable support should the low endurance Mays need help. Detroit will be sending the very capable Lindblad and Tiefenauer to the mound in games 2 and 3. However, Detroit will experience a HUGE dropoff in Game 4 when Gary Haas takes the mound. Haas has been nothing short of abysmal this season and even the Detroit offense will have a hard time making up for his incompetence. In the pen, Yoshii has proven he is among the best in the business. His 2.36 ERA over 141 innings may be enough to earn him FOY honors this season, despite only having 22 saves. Brush, Guetterman, Summers, and Covington provide plenty of depth. Defensively, the teams are virtually equal.

Advantage: Had Bonin been available for the Orioles, this would have been an advantage for Baltimore. However, as it stands the pitching staffs are simply to close to call. PUSH.

INTANGIBLES – Baltimore holds a 4-2 season series edge. The Orioles are a league high 59-22 at home. Both teams are suffering injuries to a key player each, but Baltimore’s appears to be far more critical.

Advantage: PUSH

VERDICT: This would have been a lot easier to predict had Bonin not been injured. However, any time a team loses an ace it affects the entire pitching staff. Still, I believe BALTIMORE has just enough to pull out the series in 5 games.

Toronto at Oakland

OFFENSE – The Jays employ a balanced offense of average, power and speed which was good enough to rank second in League C this season. Four players with .370+ OBP, 10 players with 12+ HR, 8 players with 80+ RBI and 9 players with 12+ SB gives you some idea of where the Toronto offensive mindframe is. The team is not without it’s stars, however. Jimmy Mejias is coming off another fine season going .302, 25 HR and 118 RBI. Ed Sexson (.257, 29, 111) and Gene Bell (.240, 27, 114) also are of note. Robert Bartley has proven to be an ideal setup man with a .373 OBP and 56 SB. While the Oakland offense also attempts to use the balance strategy, the results were just a bit below Toronto’s. While the power numbers were there (second in the AL in homers) and their speed is above average, they have had a tough time getting men on base as their .342 OBP attests. Only two starters on the team have over a .350 OBP, with one of them being slugger Bob Orta. His run-producing numbers (.276, 34, 120) pretty much ensure he will never be used in a setup capacity, which only leaves one decent setup man in Kelly. However, 7 players do have 20+ HR and 7 have 80+ RBI’s, so this offense should not be taken lightly.

Advantage: TORONTO has a clear advantage here.

PITCHING/DEFENSE – Oakland compiled the best team ERA in League C and it is easy to see why. Starters Cooney, Benton, Hayden and Branom all pitched to less than a 4.03 ERA. Even sometimes starter Qualters pitched a 3.42 ERA. Cooney is the likely ace and he is quite capable at shutting down the Toronto offense. The fact that there is almost no dropoff moving down the rotation could spell doom for Toronto. OH……I should also mention the A’s bullpen. Three players have under a 3.00 ERA, led by Cook with a 2.41 ERA and 38 saves. Shoupe and Coveney round out the three. Murphy has also done a fantastic job in long/short relief pitching 200+ innings this season. Toronto has a rotation that can keep up with Oakland’s. Stan Cone is perennial all-star that did not dissapoint this season (16-8, 3.38). Murphy, Pirtle and Azcue will ensure that the game stays close…..until you get to the Toronto bullpen. Quite simply, Toronto has nothing in the bullpen. Neill has been adequate when called upon and others have shown sparks of success, but this series will certainly not be won on the Jays bullpen. Conversely, it could very well be lost because of it. The Toronto defense is brilliant as always and may help a bit.

Advantage: The Jays bullpen makes OAKLAND a good size advantage here..

INTANGIBLES – Oakland holds a 5-4 season series advantage. Oakland was an uninspiring 45-36 at home this season.

Advantage: PUSH

Verdict: Toronto needs to hope that their bullpen is little used this series, or it could get ugly. Even as it stands, I see OAKLAND taking this series in 5.

ALCS

Oakland at Baltimore: The return of Bonin will give Baltimore a huge boost during this seven game series, virtually wiping out any pitching advantage the A’s would have enjoyed. That, with Baltimore’s superior offense, should give the Orioles their first World Series appearance. BALTIMORE in 6.

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

OFFENSE - Balance seems to be this year's theme on offense. Pittsburgh combines excellent on-base ability, superb speed and dangerous power into a potent offense that shared the top spot in the NL (with Cincinnati.) Kocher and Hurley (injured for the series) spark the offense at the top with a .404 and .387 OBP respectively. A combined 43 stolen bases only add to their effectiveness. A total of seven players have at least 20 SBs, which puts plenty of men in scoring position. On the power side, Twitty (.265, 34, 110) and Hayworth (.263, 32, 117) do the lion's share of the damage. 6 others have over 10 homeruns. Philly's offense is squarely in the middle of the pack in the NL and easily the weakest of the 8 playoff teams. Their .337 OBP, 133 HR and 130 SB are all worst among playoff participants. Despite this, five Philly players manager to drive in at least 80 runs with Sawyer (.274, 25, 106) and Iott (.256, 16, 100) leading the way. While team speed is quite poor, their 130 SB were second worst in all of League C, they do have a couple of players who are base stealing threats. Shettsline (42 SB) and Harman (33) have proven to have the ability to get themselves into scoring position. Shettline just needs to concentrate on getting on base more (.325 OBP.)

Advantage: PITTSBURGH is quite easily the stronger of the two on offense.

PITCHING/DEFENSE - Neither team has anyone that could be considered an ace in the rotation. Philadelphia will likely start off with Williams (15-9, 4.08) in game 1. Loewer is a capable pitcher, though a bit weak for a #2. After that, there is a big dropoff. Any combination of Christopher, Byers, or Smith will likely prove disasterous against the Pittsburgh offense. The bullpen will offer little relief (no pun intended) should the starters not be able to handle their load. Aside from some stellar pitching from Hinsley (1.80 ERA in limited duty) there is very little to look for in the Philly pen. Hargis and Ojeda have proved adequate, but can handly be considered stoppers. Their closer, Wiley, did manage 42 saves, but compiled a 5.46 ERA in the process. Pittsburgh's ace, Steve Newhan (18-7, 4.06) , is no better than Philly's Williams. After the #1, however, Pittsburgh enjoys a solid advantage. Kilhullen (who could also be consider the ace on the team, going 21-7, 4.18), Bell and Rafter are all far and away superior to their Philly counterparts. In the pen, the Pittsburgh pitching staff really starts to shine. Closer Driscoll has produced another fine season picking up 37 saves over a 2.81 ERA. Chapman (2.43 ERA) , Kazanski and Sullivan all have been superb in relief this season. On defense, Philly is slightly weaker with 74 errors to the Pirates 62.

Advantage: Once again, PITTSBURGH has a firm advantage.

INTANGIBLES - Pittsburgh holds a 4-2 season series edge. Philly's road record is 38-43, worst among playoff teams. Conversely, Pittsburgh's home record is 57-24, best in the NL. Only Pittsburgh is affected by injuries, but the effect should be minor.

Advantage: PITTSBURGH

Verdict: I hate to criticize a team thay makes the playoffs, but Philadelphia simply is out of its league. PITTSBURGH will take this series, quite likely in 3 games.

Cincinnati at San Fransisco

OFFENSE - Cincinnati shared the NL lead in runs this year with.....you guessed it......a balanced offense. Their .348 OBP was third in the NL with Ward (.379) and Green (.370) leading the way. Green also picked up 27 SB, creating a find leadoff man. Seven Reds players stole at least 17 bases, led by Ted Carden (42), Durham (35) and Palmer (31). In the run-producing department, Jerry Ward (.301, 35, 141) and Ted "Mr. Everything" Carden (.293, 29, 131) are the big boppers. Five others drove in over 80 runs, giving the Reds a solid and flexible lineup. The focus of the Giants offense in on power and they have put together an effective lineup. Four players hit at least 29 homeruns with five others reaching double digits. Six player in total drove in 90 or more runs, led by Fisher (.269, 30,121), Stinson (.279, 34, 113) and Happenny (.249, 35, 105). Stolen bases is less of a priority in San Fransisco, but they still have players that can take the extra base. Seven players with 17 or more stolen bases with Fisher (35) heading the pack. The big weaknees with this lineup is at the top where the big OBP guys don't have the speed to consistently put themselves in run scoring position.

Advantage: CINCINNATI has a slight advantage in the offense department.

PITCHING/DEFENSE - The Giants will send out Cy Young favorite Bob Welch (23-5, 2.93) in games 1 and 5. Crowley and Hallahan are superb #2 and #3 pitchers. The question mark is with the #4. Rosado has done a find job in his 10 starts, but it remains to be seen if he can continue his success into the playoffs. Ed Doster, suffering through an off season by his standards, was relegated to the pen, but it is my bet that he becomes the 4th starter in the series. In the pen is where the Giants are in trouble, though of no fault to them. Four San Fransisco relievers are injured for the playoffs and this really cuts into the bullpen depth. Most notable is workhorse Roberts who put in over 100 innings in 46 games (and a 3.60 ERA to boot) before going down. Taylor is also a significant loss. The Giants still have super closer Seaman (2.25 ERA, 45 saves) and Haney might be adequate in a setup role. It is ironically fortunate that either Rosado or Doster will be relegated to the bullpen for the series as the pen can certainly use the help. The Reds have their choice of aces, but I believe that Cincinnati will go with Bill Kerlin for game 1. Despite his relatively low 15 wins, he has pitched the best among the Reds starters. There is virtually no dropoff going to games 2 & 3 with Zahn and Malone both exceptional pitchers, although both are slightly below their Giants counterparts. Howell will likely be the #4 and, while a notch below the others, is still solid...especially for a 4th starter. Closer Wickman (38 saves, 3.07 ERA) and Jorgenson (3.72 ERA) are both capable relievers who will certainly hold their own if and when the starters falter. Willey and Phebus are good enough to be called upon in an emergency and should be able to limit the damage. The Reds defense is the best in League C with a paltry 53 errors. San Fransisco defense is closer to the league average with their 85 errors.

Advantage: Despite the battered bullpen and superior Cincinnati defense, I feel that SAN FRANSISCO has the advantage here based on their starting four and especially ace Welch.

INTANGIBLES - The season series was split 3-3. San Fransisco was a solid, but not spectacular, 51-30 at home this year. Cincinnati was 45-36 on the road, second best in the NL.

Advantage: PUSH

Verdict: An extremely close series that I feel will see SAN FRANSISCO win in 5.

NLCS

Pittsburgh at San Fransisco: The big matchup will be the Pirates' offense versus the Giant's pitching. This series should go 7 with PITTSBURGH coming out on top.

WORLD SERIES

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh: The pitching is even, but the Baltimore offense is a little more fearsome. This series can easily go either way, but the odds are slightly in the favor of BALTIMORE in 7.