Season 6 Playoff Predictions

Seattle at Toronto

OFFENSE – Seattle's offense had been the model of underachievement this season. Despite leading the AL in BA and hitting a respectable 190 HR, their runs scored places them squarely in the middle of the pack. A complete lack of team speed is likely part of the reason. Seattle's 112 SB is the lowest of the non-tanking teams. The power is spread out very evenly with 7 players hitting 20 or more homers. None of them, however, hit more than 26. Despite the good balance of power in the lineup, only 3 batter drove in as many as 90 runs. The Toronto offense is much more effective with about the same amount of talent in the AVG and PWR categories. Despite a BA 3 points lower and hitting 1 less homerun, Toronto was able to score 87 more runs. Toronto has three premier run producers in Mejias (29HR, 128 RBI), Miller (35, 103) and Whitmore (39,129). Two other players drove in over 90 runs. The difference in the two offenses, however, is team speed. The Jays stole 254 bases this season, more than double of the M's total and easily tops in the league. Three players stole over 40 bases and 4 others stole as many as 20. Toronto also leads the AL in doubles. Anyone who read last year's playoff predictions (concerning San Diego) know what I feel about a team with high GAP and high SPD.

Advantage: This is a classic case showing the importance of team speed. Despite being nearly identical in every major offensive category aside from speed, the Jays score many more runs. Supreme team speed gives TORONTO a solid advantage here.

PITCHING/DEFENSE – Toronto has the best rotation in League C. Period. End of story. Well, not quite end of story. All four of their starters have ERA's under 4.00. Stan Cone (20-9, 3.07) will likely be the game 1 starter, but quite frankly, any of the four (including Neill, Pirtle and Miller) would do about as good a job in the key #1 role. What about the bullpen? Orosco (2.65, 40 saves) and Davis (3.18, 6 saves) are likely all they will need. I mean, do you really think the long reliever is going to see any action? Furthermore, the Toronto team defense is absolutely stunning. The Jays committed only 34 errors (compared to Seattle's 90) placing them as the best defensive team in League C. Seattle's pitching staff is good, but they are simply in a lesser league than Toronto's. Bud Rafter (13-10, 3.48) is a good starting pitcher and can hold his own against anyone Toronto throws. The rest of the rotation is questionable. With the injury to Art Ford, both Fred Mitchell and Dick Davis will be called upon to start (assuming the series goes at least four games.) Not very comforting if you ask me. On the plus side, the M's bullpen is simply fantastic. Six pitcher with ERA's under 4.00. With the trade of Cap Black earlier in the season, the M's have not settled on a closer. Still, the bullpen by committee method has worked quite well for them. One only wonders how many good relievers a team really needs.

Advantage: With all due respect to Seattle, there is no comparison here. TORONTO has a HEAVY advantage here.

INTANGIBLES – Toronto has a 7-3 advantage in the season series. The Jays 116 wins this season are a League C record. Seattle nearly pulled of the all-time monumental collapse by going 18-26 in their last 44 games. Only the end of the season saved them.

Advantage: TORONTO

Verdict: In order for Seattle to have any chance to avoid a sweep, they need to win game one. I don't think it's happening. TORONTO in 3.

Detroit at Oakland

OFFENSE – The Tiger offense can only be classified as mediocre. Their 828 runs scored firmly places then near the bottom of the AL offenses. They DO have good power in the lineup with 5 player hitting over 20 homeruns and 5 others over 12. However, none drove in over 100 runs which is surely a major concern for Detroit management. Once again, it appears a complete lack of team speed in the culprit. Their 133 stolen bases stands third worse among non-tanking teams, only behind Seattle and Philly. They will be hard pressed to score many runs against the A's pitching. The Oakland offense is only marginally better, but it really doesn't need to be. Despite a lower OBP and identical homers, the A's drove in nearly 40 more runs. 39 more stolen bases is likely the cause. What the Athletics DO have is two big time run producers in Luis Matthews (.269, 34, 131) and Press Reynolds (.230, 29, 108). With table-setters like Mcphee (.291, 17 2B, 55 SB) and Owens (.307, 22, 16), it's easy to see where the offense comes from.

Advantage: A small, but clear advantage to OAKLAND.

PITCHING/DEFENSE – While Toronto may have the best rotation in League C, the A's have the best complete staff. Cy Young favorite Jesse Hayden (23-6, 2.74) looks to continue his stellar season in the playoffs. Coveney and converted reliever Qualters look to provide solid #2 and #3 pitching respectively. No word on whether Baldwin or Branom pitches game #4, but either choice is adequate. The bullpen is even more impressive with three relievers packing ERA's under 3.40. Led by Cook (2.34, 42 saves) and Al Murphy (3.13, 14), there will be no relief after the starters leave. There is some question in the long-reliever position, especially given Qualters tendency for short outings. Detroit does not have a stopper to quality of Hayden, but their rotation is solid and quite capable of getting the job done. Lindblad (18-7, 3.56) will be leaned on heavily to win his potential two games. Iorg, Haas and (probably) Schilling provide above average quality for their spots. The bullpen is of good quality, but is not without it's share of question marks. Guetterman (4.75 ERA), despite racking up 29 saves, has proven mostly ineffective in the closer role. Brush (2.60, 18 saves) has proved capable of picking up the slack, but one has to wonder if his 156 innings in 68 games has taxed his arm. Covington and Summers are good go-to guys in a crisis.

Advantage: The only advantage Detroit enjoys here is in the #3 and #4 starter roles. However, it is not enough to give OAKLAND a clear overall advantage here.

INTANGIBLES – Oakland holds a 6-4 season series advantage. Oakland was a league best 60-21 at home, while Detroit is a poor 40-41 on the road. There is a rumor that Oakland will be bring up two big bats to start the series again Detroit. Frank Pitts and Bob Orta are major league ready and my sources say they will be making their debuts in the series.

Advantage. Oakland

Verdict: The difference between this series and the SEA/TOR one is that I fell Detroit has the ability to steal a game. So I go with OAKLAND in four

Cincinnati at Los Angeles

OFFENSE – Cincinnati is the top run producing team in League C. They do it with a lethal combination of AVG/OBP, power and speed. They led the NL (and MLB) in HR and Runs and was fifth in the NL with 198 SB. Three players reached 30+ HR and 120+ RBI, including MVP favorite Denny Gipson. His 137 RBI led the NL while his 41 homers were second. Two other players drove in 100+ runs. Six different players have 20+ stolen bases, ensuring (along with a league leading .367 OBP) that there are always runners in scoring position. Los Angeles’ offense is Cincinnati’s “Mini-Me”. Their offense is designed identical to the Reds, just not as powerful. They are slightly worse in runs (917 to 1018), homers (191 to 214) , BA (.283 to .292), OBP (.355 to .367) and SB (190 to 198). They do have some big sticks on offense led by OF Harry Gill (.297, 31, 127). Six other players drove in 90 runs or more and two other drove in 80+. Lots of balance here, but likely not enough.

Advantage: Los Angeles scientists need to work on their cloning techniques, because they can’t quite match CINCINNATI on offense.

PITCHING/DEFENSE – I can carry the “Mini-Me” analogy to the pitching/defense side as well. Cincinnati holds the advantage in ERA (4.23 to 4.26), strikeouts (942 to 940), walks (567 to 610), wins (104 to 99) and errors (65 to 67). Only saves (59 to 51) fall in LA’s favor. LA is also fielding the top starter among the two teams in Greg Clare. As a whole, Cincinnati’s top four look to be a hair better than LA’s, but with Clare potentially pitching two games, this is clearly a good sign for LA. The Dodgers bullpen is riddled with injuries as four relievers will be out for the series. Fortunately, LA still has some depth here. Pat Beckendorf (23 saves) and Bob Smith (14) may be alternating closing and setup duties. Wilson can provide some good short relief if needed. The rest of the pen is a question mark, but enough talent here to satisfy. The Reds have not had a consistent closer this season and it may come to haunt them in this series. Joe Phobus did pick up 21 saves, but he was erratic at times. Look for him and Wickman to share closing dutes. Sedgwick will be able to provide good middle relief and a handful of other relievers can be called upon in a pinch.

Advantage: LOS ANGELES has the advantage here by virtue of their #1 starter and slightly better bullpen. Not a huge advantage, and no advantage should the series not go 5.

INTANGIBLES: Los Angeles holds the 6-3 series edge this season. The Reds have played superbly on the road this year, going 50-31. Many injuries in the LA bullpen. Cincinnati had a much tougher schedule by virtue of strength of division.

Advantage: Push

Verdict: Cincinnati in 5. This is a extremely close series, but I have to with CIN in 5 despite LA’s top starter. Normally I don’t factor Intangibles into my final decision, but the strength of schedule is really sticking out to me (the NL schedule is unbalanced in favor of division rivals.) The NL Central is just so much more powerful than the NL West, it really makes me think that LA is weaker than it appears and CIN stronger.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

OFFENSE: The Pirate offense is centered around speed with just enough power to do the job. Their 216 SB were tops in the NL. Five players have over 25 SB and three other in double digits. The main go-to guy on offense, as usual, is Morrie Mansell. The perennial MVP candidate hit .281 with 34 HR and 123 RBI. Why not throw in 39 SB to boot. Is there a better player in the league right now? Five other players with 98+ RBI’s ensure that this isn’t a one man show. An injury to C-Bob Mabry will tame the offense somewhat, but I fear not enough for Atlanta’s liking. Atlanta fields an adequate offense that is designed to do just enough to compliment their pitching. As a team, they are pretty much around the league average in all of the major offensive categories. Individually, they have some fearsome bats in Bevil (.298, 34, 107) and Cochran (.258, 21,112). Only one other player hit as many as 90 RBI’s, so we are not talking offensive explosion here.

Advantage: No doubt that PITTSBURGH is far superior here. I liken Atlanta’s offense to a new Saturn SL2. A nice car, decent quality, but not going to turn many heads.

PITCHING/DEFENSE: If you are a Braves fan, this is the section you are waiting for. Atlanta has the best staff ERA of any of the NL playoff teams with a 3.97 ERA. Top quality starters are always the key to winning championships and Atlanta has two of the best in Sutherland (16-8, 3.01) and Young (22-8, 3.05). There is a question mark with their #4 starter as Wilhelm has been inconsistent. But should Pittsburgh be able to get a starter or two out of the game, things will not get easier. The Braves bullpen is among the finest ever assembled in League C. Ulisney had 49 saves for the Braves and mid-season pickup (acquired from SEA along with Young), Cap Black, had 28 (albeit most with his former team). Pittsburgh is again hit with the injury bug as top starter Bert Kilhullen is out for the series. This really puts a damper on the Pirates’ chances as their remaining four starters all pale in comparison to their Brave counterparts. The bullpen is very good with Driscoll (35 saves) as your closer. Sullivan, Cook and Rutner can all be relied on for solid relief work. However, the Pirates’ pen is nowhere near the quality of Atlanta’s. Defensively, the Pirates hold a 61-83 advantage in errors committed.

Advantage: A sizable advantage here to ATLANTA. Pittsburgh really needed Kilhullen healthy for this series.

INTANGIBLES: Pittsburgh holds a 4-3 series edge this season. Once again, division quality has me re-thinking the relative strengths of these two squads. Two key injuries have the Pirates limping just a little. Pittsburgh comes into the series on a 4-game winning streak.

Advantage: PITTSBURGH

Verdict: Once again, I find myself looking at Intangibles in determining a series winner. On paper, Pittsburgh is the superior team. However, the impact of their injuries swings the pendulum over to Atlanta’s side. Then there is division strength, which evens things out a bit. I think I’ll just go with the “Good pitching beats good hitting” cliché and say ATLANTA in 5