Are There Too Many Walks in GSB?

By skinneej, Braves

Short answer-Yes. You want data and graphs to back it up then keep reading. I feel there are too many walks in GSB, and decided to take a closer look. I took a sample of the 100 pitchers with the most innings pitched in a season and plotted their walks per 9 innings pitched (BB/9IP) vs their control rating. As expected, there is a general trend showing that for a higher control rating a pitcher will on average have fewer BB/9IP that a low control pitcher.

The problem is I don't believe there is enough difference between them. Take a look at the chart. The best control pitchers in the game are giving up 3 BB/9IP on average. A pitcher with 100 less rating points in control is giving up only 1 more BB/9IP. The best pitchers in MLB such as Maddux give up 1 BB/9IP or less, and I think this should be reflected in GSB. Holding down on the number of walks will also keep scores lower and keep the ridiculous number of big innings to a minimum.

Looking at the chart, linear regression shows us a trendline with a formula of basically -.001*Control + 8. Again, a pitcher with a control rating of 500 would on average give up 3BB/9IP which is way too high. The best pitcher on the chart had a 2.5 BB/9IP with a control rating of 485.

Does a hitter's ratings also affect walks? * I was under the impression that only a pitcher's control rating decided walks, but I've also heard from some that a hitter's power ratings also affect walks. If this is the case then the data I have presented doesn't show the whole picture, but it provides enough evidence to show there are too many walks. A simple change would be slightly adjusting the current formulas (if they are linear) downward so that walks were more infrequent. Another thought is to make the algorithm log based or exponential so that a pitcher with 490 in control would be much better than one with 450 and the same with 450 and 400 and so on. This would make the game more realistic, and would save us from wanting to hit something when our best control pitcher gives up 5 walks and 6 runs in an inning.

* Synocco's Note: The Commish has gone on record to say that walks are a function of the pitcher's CONROL rating and the hitter's AVG and PWR ratings.

[Download dataset in Excel format.]