Season 5 Playoff Predictions

Seattle at Toronto

OFFENSE – Toronto’s offense is the best in the majors….PERIOD!! Their 1007 runs scored is, by far, the most of any other team in the league. They do it with a combination of power and speed. Their 208 homers and 218 SB are #1 and #4 in the AL respectively. Five Blue Jays have driven in over 100 runs with Mejias (117) and Whitmore (116) leading the way. Four more drove in at least 80. Even with the injury to Miller, I see no weak link in this lineup. Seattle’s offense, while quite respectable, is riddled with injuries. Rufer, Leard and Sadler are all key members of the Mariner offense who will be out for the remainder of the playoffs. While the M’s four main run producers (all over 100 RBI) are still healthy, there simply isn’t enough offensive firepower to compare to what the Jays can field. I should also note here that the Mariners are the slowest team in the majors with a league worst 94 stolen bases. That’s not gonna help.

Advantage: TORONTO far and away.

PITCHING – The Seattle starting rotation ranks as one of the best in the league. All four of the M’s starters have an ERA under 4.00. Rafter and Young (22 and 21 wins respectively) are both Cy Young candidates. The Mariners are gonna to have serious problems in the bullpen, however. While Cap Black (48 saves) appears ready to pick up where he left off in the regular season, Seattle has no other reliable relievers available. Davidson and the Taylor brothers (Jack and Kevin) are all out for the playoffs. Even with their presence, the bullpen would be a sore spot for Seattle. Hopefully, they won’t need it. Their injuries simply make it worse. While Toronto’s rotation is not of the same quality as Seattle’s, they are not far behind. Stan Cone is a Cy Young favorite with a 24-5 record and a 3.32 ERA. Pirtle has gotten over his early season injuries and appears as strong as even. There is no dropoff at #3 and #4 as Wysong and Neill (17 and 21 wins respectively) are certainly quality starters. Where Toronto does have the advantage is in the bullpen. While the Jays also have their share of injuries in the bullpen, the also have much more depth. Davis (25 saves) has done a fine job filling in for injured stopper, Jorgensen. Tobin and Knauss also can be called upon for reliable relief.

Advantage: A slight edge to TORONTO here. While the Seattle rotation is a bit better, the Jays bullpen is MUCH better.

INTANGIBLES – Surprisingly, Seattle holds 8-1 season series edge. While the road records are identical, Toronto is nearly unstoppable at home with a 64-17 record. Both teams have key injuries, but Seattle’s are more numerous and more debilitating.

Advantage: Push

VERDICT: The Seattle starters all have the ability to steal a game…but only one. TORONTO in 4.

Detroit at Oakland

OFFENSE – The Detroit lineup is centered around the slugging prowess of Newman (39 HR, 112 RBI) and House (26, 112). Their OBP of .349 is lowest among the AL playoff teams and their 120 SB was third worse in the AL, so it remains to be seen if enough batters reach base (and scoring position) for the power hitters to do the most damage. Three other Tiger batters drove in 95 or more runs, but clearly Detroit is counting on the two big guys to get the job done. Oakland’s offense is similar in concept, but more versatile. The Athletics have three big bats they can all on in Willis (32, 117), Matthews (32, 105) and Reynolds (26, 116). While Oakland does a slightly better job of getting on base, they do a FAR better job getting into scoring position with 188 stolen bases. Of course, with only 117 doubles third worst in AL), they may need the homeruns to score after all.

Advantage: OAKLAND with a slight edge.

PITCHING – Detroit had to lowest ERA in the majors (by far) and it is well deserved. The rotation, while not featuring any one super starter, is populated by five high quality pitchers. Whether it is Bell, Rowen and Lindblad all have the ability to take over a game. The Tigers have no fear in game 4 as Iorg has proven capable all year. And should they NOT prove capable, no fear. The Detroit bullpen is simply fantastic. Yoshii (who, curiously is currently listed as a starter…misprint I am sure) has done well with his 26 saves, but the real gems of the bullpen are Covington and Guetterman. Both sport ERA’s under 2.40 and have been baffling hitters all year long. Several other pitchers have proven more than reliable all season long. Oakland’s rotation, especially their top four, are comparable to Detroit’s. This is especially true if rookie Jesse Hayden can continue his truly remarkable season. Called up halfway through the year, Hayden has posted a 7-2 record with a paltry 2.87 ERA. He has the potential to completely steal the series, should it go 5. The Athletics bullpen is decent, but nowhere near the quality of the Tiger pen. There is no true stopper with Cook, Coveney and Murphy sharing the duties. Neither of them has proven up to the task and Oakland must hope they are not relied on to save a game.

Advantage: DETROIT has a good size advantage here, though Oakland rookie Hayden may make up part of the difference.

INTANGIBLES – Detroit holds a slight 6-4 season series edge. Will rookie Hayden shine or will he crumble? Detroit has been fantastic on the road with a 55-26 record….better than Oakland’s home record.

Advantage: DETROIT.

VERDICT: Two very similar teams, in both quality and makeup, duke it out in what will be a series talked about for years. DETROIT in 5.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh

OFFENSE – Pittsburgh is slightly better than Atlanta in almost every offensive category. Pittsburgh has a .284 team batting average, Atlanta .282. Pittsburgh has 899 runs, Atlanta 882. Homers (198 to 156) and stolen bases (204 to 188) also follow this trend. Aside from the slight disadvantage in offensive numbers, Atlanta will also be without two key members on their lineup, Dan Host and Glen Bailey. The injury to Host is especially painful as the Braves lose his 109 RBI's and 35 SB's. Atlanta can still score runs, as Paynter, Thon, Cochran and Romero all have over 100 RBI's, but it still will have a long way to catch up to their counterparts. Pittsburgh has three of the top run producers in the game in Mansell (42 HR, 114 RBI), Hayworth (35, 140) and Sullivan (24, 133). Five other players drove in 74 runs or more. With the combination of their 198 homeruns (2nd in NL) and their .355 OBP (also 2nd in NL) it is no wonder they were tops in the National League in runs scored.

Advantage: PITTSBURGH, injuries or not.

PITCHING – The NL best Atlanta pitching staff start with a fine rotation. Sullivan is the Ace and will anchor a staff consisting of Sutherland, Wilhelm and Grimshaw. Curiously, the Braves have apparently decided to move George Aikens to the bullpen, despite a 14-11 record and a 4.02 ERA. While the Brave bullpen is quite weak (Aikens would likely be the go-to guy) I don't think moving the #3 starter there is the wisest of moves for a short series. An injury to Eddie McCall likely prompted the move. Hal Ulisney, while recording 41 saves, has been quite inconsistent with his 5.07 ERA. Cristante can be called upon in a pinch, but there really is no one else. Pittsburgh's rotation is fronted by veteran Denny Rutner. Rutnet is fantastic year with a 19-7 record and 3.80 ERA. Ferris (16-8), Schult and Kilhullen round out the top 4. The bullpen is noticeable better then the Braves, with four reliable pitchers to choose from. Driscoll filled in as closer with 41 saves and Lawson and Graber did most of the setup work. 5th starter Reichert, banished to the bullpen for the playoffs, will likely prove a capable long reliever should the situation merit it.

Advantage: PUSH. Atlanta's rotation is a little better but Pittsburgh's bullpen is much better.

INTANGIBLES: Pittsburgh holds a 6-3 season series edge...the only one of the four home playoff teams having accomplished this. Atlanta has done a poor job on the road, barely breaking .500 (42-39). Key injuries to the Braves could prove costly.

Advantage: PITTSBURGH.

VERDICT: Pittsburgh is clearly the favorite, but Atlanta has enough talent to make it a struggle. Still, my money goes on PITTSBURGH in 4.

Cincinnati at San Diego

OFFENSE – The San Diego offense has a unorthodox, but effective way of scoring runs. While their OBP is a mediocre .342 and 174 homeruns is about average for the NL, they led the majors in two categories that, while marginal by themselves, prove deadly in combination: stolen bases and doubles. Once again the anti-GAP argument is blown out the window as the Padres were able to score 885 runs (third in NL) with only slightly above-average power. Sure, San Diego has some heavy hitters in Hill (33 HR, 119 RBI) and Campau (31,124), but the core of their offense is doubles and stolen bases. 9 players with 19 stolen bases or more, three of them over 36. 6 players with 19 doubles or more, and three more in double digits. The combination has the added effect of spreading out the offense, leaving the Padres less affected by injuries or cold streaks. Very Impressive! Cincinnati employs a more conventional, but less efficient, offense. They have the traditional sluggers in Ward (33, 119) and Durham (36, 127) and the normal table-setters in Palmer (.394 OBP, 35 SB) and Bender (.334 OBP, 42 SB). Five other players drove in 84+ runs and 7 more hit 11+ homeruns (including Ted Carden's 12 homeruns in limited duty). Still, the numbers don't lie. San Diego scored nearly 40 more runs during the regular season and I expect this trend to continue into the playoffs.

Advantage – A clear advantage to SAN DIEGO here.

PITCHING – The Cincinnati rotation was looking to be among the best in baseball until Cy Young candidate Bill Kerlin got hurt. His injury give the Reds only two consistent starters in Zahn and Howell. Zahn is an ace and has the ability to win a game single handedly. Howell is only a touch below Zahn. Beyond that, however, there are plenty of question marks. Bruyette and Parrish have not done well this season and there is no reason to think that their luck will change any in the playoffs. The Reds bullpen has some quality pitchers, but not a lot of depth. Phebus pick up 33 saves in sometimes erratic duty. Schaffer seems to have taken over, picking up 12 saves and a 2.81 ERA. Aside from them, there is little quality to be found. The Padres rotation would not have been comparable to the Reds had Kerlin not been injured. As it stands now, they are nearly equal. Schilling is the ace of the staff compiling a 16-10 record with a 3.44 ERA. Ludwick and Rudderham (19 wins) have done remarkably well as the #2 and #3 starters. The Padres #4 is a question mark, whether it be Shuba or Mcmakin. Either choice would still be better than the Reds #4. The Padres bullpen is about the same as the Reds. Felder picked up 35 saves in sometimes questionable duty. Robinson (2.74 ERA in 23 innings) has pitched well in a limited role, but will likely need to called upon more in the playoffs. An injury to Walker leaves only Herbert as the last reliable reliever.

Advantage – Push. Had Kerlin not been injured, this would clear be in Cincinnati's favor. As it stands, the teams are pretty much even here.

INTANGIBLES – Cincinnati holds a 7-2 season series edge. Cincinnati is going into the playoffs on a 5 game losing streak while San Diego is going in on a 4 game winning streak. San Diego, the main beneficiary of Los Angeles' monumental collapse, needs to stay cool as the only playoff newcomer this year.

Advantage: Cincinnati, slightly.

VERDICT: Had Kerlin been available, I would have chosen Cincinnati in 5. Without him, it's SAN DIEGO in 4.

THE REST OF THE WAY.

ALCS: Detroit vs. Toronto

Toronto just have way too much offensive firepower for the Detroit pitching staff to handle. TORONTO in 6.

NLCS: San Diego vs. Pittsburgh

A very close match-up that should go the distance. A tough decision, but I feel PITTSBURGH will take it in 7.

WORLD SERIES: Toronto vs. Pittsburgh

The two best teams in the majors will have played in the ALCS. After defeating Detroit, Pittsburgh should prove an easier task for the Jays. TORONTO in 5.