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Sample Situation #1
For instance, a simple 1% improvement
in a 10 MW cogen project's net heat rate
(basis of 6,000 btu/kwh @ $2.50/mmbtu
fuel and 80% load factor)
can save over $10,000 per year,
or almost $80,000 NPV on a 15 year project life
(10% effective discount rate
after tax).
This in turn improves the projects
coverage ratio, reduces performance risk, and could qualify a project for
better debt costs and/or reduced insurance fees.
In contrast a similar project
which has had its heat rate underestimated by 3%
(basically a 6,000 estimate
as opposed to an actual 6,180)
could cost a project almost
$240,000 in NPV, thereby decreasing coverage ratio and increasing project
risks.
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Sample Situation #2
A 3,000 KW end use customer
currently paying $0.06/kwh for electricity has just signed a supply contract
with a wholesale load aggregator for an anticipated 15 mill (1.5 cent)per
kwh reduction in electricity costs for a binding (take or pay) contract
term of 5 years from deregulated retail access which will occur on 1/1/2002.
With a 65% load factor the customer is expecting an annual savings in excess
of $250,000!
After the contracts are finalized,
the customer learns that pending regulation allows for the current utility
to collect "exit fees" from existing customers of 12 mills (1.2 cents)
per kwh for a period of 36 months after deregulation. In addition, the
current utility must reduce all classes of rates by 15% upon deregulation.
The end result is that the customer
will not see any effective savings for the first 3 years of the contract.
In fact, the customer will actually lose over $100,000 per year during
the first 3 years after deregulation and only begin to save a little over
$100,000 per year in years 4 and 5.
Net result is a NEGATIVE savings
for the entire deal! |