THE RESPECTED BRITISH DEFENSE PUBLICATION "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" SAYS INDIA HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING A NUCLEAR ARSENAL TO RIVAL THAT OF FRANCE AND CHINA.
VOA'S ANDRE DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM LONDON.
TEXT: "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" SAYS THE RECENT NUCLEAR TESTS CONDUCTED BY INDIA LAST MONTH HAVE PROVIDED CRUCIAL INFORMATION AS TO THE SHAPE AND SIZE OF THAT COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL.
THE BRITISH DEFENSE MAGAZINE SAYS INDIA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM COMES PRIMARILY FROM WEAPONS-GRADE PLUTONIUM REPROCESSED FROM TWO RESEARCH REACTORS.BASED ONLY ON THESE TWO REACTORS, THE MAGAZINE SAYS INDIA'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL IS ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 20 AND 65 WEAPONS.
HOWEVER,"JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" ALSO SAYS INDIA HAS OTHER COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR REACTORS WHICH PRODUCE ELECTRICITY BUT CAN ALSO MAKE PLUTONIUM. ALTHOUGH THIS PLUTONIUM IS NOT IDEAL FOR MAKING WEAPONS, THE DEFENSE MAGAZINE SAYS BRITAIN HAS SUCCESSFULLY PRODUCED NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM SUCH PLUTONIUM AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS INDIA ATTEMPTED A SIMILAR FEAT IN THE TESTS CONDUCTED LAST MONTH.
THE DEFENSE MAGAZINE GOES ON TO SAY, ACCORDING TO ONE ESTIMATE, IF THE COMMERCIAL REACTOR PLUTONIUM IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, THEN INDIA WOULD POSSESS ENOUGH FISSILE MATERIAL TO BUILD AT LEAST 390 NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND AS MANY AS 470 WEAPONS. THIS MAKES THE POTENTIAL INDIAN NUCLEAR ARSENAL BIGGER THAN THAT OF BRITAIN AND IN THE SAME LEAGUE AS FRANCE AND CHINA.
THE EDITOR OF "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" PETER FELSTEAD SAYS INDIA IS ALSO DEVELOPING LAND,SEA AND AIR SYSTEMS TO DELIVER SUCH WEAPONS. INDIA'S MAJOR PROGRAM IS THE "AGNI" MISSILE. THIS IS AN ONGOING PROGRAM THAT USED TO BE JUST A TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATOR. BUT THIS IS ACTUALLY CONTINUING NOW AS A FULL
PROGRAM IN
THE LIGHT OF RECENT EVENTS. NOW THAT (MISSILE SYSTEM) WILL EVENTUALLY COME OUT TO A RANGE OF 2500 KILOMETERS "IF IT ACHIEVES ITS FULL POTENTIAL".
MR. FELSTEAD SAYS IF THE "AGNI" MISSILE IS PLACED ON INDIA'S BORDER FACING CHINA, THEN IT COULD HIT SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST REGIONS OF THAT COUNTRY. HE SAYS INDIA'S POTENTIAL NUCLEAR STRENGTH COULD AFFECT CHINESE DEFENSE POLICIES. CHINA
HAS BEEN LOOKING TO EXPAND THEIR NAVAL CAPABILITIES WHAT WE CALL THEIR 'BLUE WATER' CAPABILITIES WHICH WOULD GIVE THEM THE CAPABILITY TO ACTUALLY OPERATE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. THEY HAVE BEEN WORKING, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH BURMA NOW MYANMAR TO ACTUALLY TRY TO SET UP SIGNALS INTELLIGENCE BASES ON THE BURMESE COAST.IT MAY BE THAT ALTHOUGH INDIA HAS NOTHING LIKE THE MILITARY POWER TO ACTUALLY CHECK A COUNTRY THE SIZE OF CHINA, IT MAY MAKE THEM (CHINA) THINK TWICE ABOUT THEIR EXPANSIONIST POLICIES IN THAT REGION.
AS FOR PAKISTAN, "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" ESTIMATES IT HAS BETWEEN SIX AND 12 NUCLEAR WEAPONS. AND IT GOES ON TO SAY DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST PAKISTAN CONDUCTED BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR NUCLEAR TESTS IN RESPONSE TO THE INDIAN BLASTS AND NOT SIX AS ANNOUNCED BY THE PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT. "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" SAYS
PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL IS DESIGNED TO COUNTER THE PERCEIVED CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR SUPERIORITY OF INDIA. BUT THE MAGAZINE GOES ON TO SAY THE ARSENAL WAS INTENDED TO BE USED ONLY AS A WEAPON OF LAST RESORT WHEN THE VERY EXISTENCE OF PAKISTAN WAS AT STAKE.
MR. FELSTEAD BELIEVES THE REGION HAS STABILIZED BUT THERE ARE DEFINITE CONCERNS.A MORE OBVIOUS CONCERN WOULD BE THE PROLIFERATION ARISING OUT OF THESE TESTS PAKISTAN BECOMING COMPELLED TO SELL ITS NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER STATES THAT ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS SUCH AS IRAN AND LIBYA, POSSIBLY EVEN SYRIA SELLING THEIR TECHNOLOGY TO ACTUALLY FUND THEIR OWN PROGRAMS.IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE WHAT THE TRICKLE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE AROUND THE WORLD WITH THESE OTHER STATES. NOW I THINK THAT IS WHERE THE CONCERN IS. MANY POLITICIANS AND DEFENSE EXPERTS HAVE URGED PAKISTAN AND INDIA TO RESUME NEGOTIATIONS AIMED AT REDUCING TENSIONS IN THE REGION AND TO MAKE SURE THAT NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY DOES NOT GET INTO THE WRONG HANDS.
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