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[Page: S1990]
But today the message to China ought to be crystal clear: If they invade or have missile attacks on Taiwan, the United States will intervene militarily. We do not need to spell out how we intervene. My own feeling is that it can include weapons to Taiwan, the use of air power, and other options that can be effective but do not involve United States troops.
I welcome the steps that have been taken, but I don't want any Chinese leader, during this period of leadership uncertainty, to gamble on what will take place.
An article that I call to the attention of my colleagues appeared recently and merits careful reflection. It appeared in the New York Times, written by David Shambaugh, titled `How Far to Support Taiwan?' I ask that it be printed in the Record.
The article follow:
By firing ballistic missiles within Taiwan's territorial waters, China is sending political and military messages to both the United States and Taiwan. Unless the Clinton Administration delivers a demonstrably tough response--both diplomatically and militarily--the exercises could escalate dangerously and Beijing will be convinced it can act with impunity.
The military exercises are but the latest in a long list of irritants, including Beijing's human rights violations and its sale of international arms. The Clinton Administration has bent over backwards to engage China constructively and help it integrate into the world order.
But Beijing's crude tactics are provocative and irresponsible for a country seeking international recognition as a great power. They also potentially force the United States into choosing between its relationship with China and its longstanding ties with Taiwan. America understandably does not want war with the largest nation on earth, but it is time to lay down markers and protect American national interests.
Washington should begin by sending clear and unambiguous warnings to Beijing about its coercive behavior toward Taiwan. The Administration's condemnation of the missile tests does not go far enough. President Clinton should publicly restate America's commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to assist the island in defending itself. He should reiterate that America's entire relationship
with China--since President Richard Nixon's visit in 1972--has been premised on the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. President Clinton must clearly state that China's recent actions call the entire relationship into question.
Words are important, but China respects power and action. The United States Navy should dispatch the carrier Independence (which has been cruising north of Taiwan) through the Taiwan Strait--an international passage through which Navy ships pass regularly to insure freedom of navigation.
China's decision to fire missiles into the two `impact zones' within 20 miles of Taiwan's two largest ports, Keelung and Kaohsiung, constitutes a de facto blockade. Seventy percent of the island's trade and all of its oil imports pass through these ports. Such a partial blockade may be an act of war under international law and thus a matter for the United Nations Security Council. China must not be allowed to close Taiwan's harbors, as it will bring the island's economy to its knees.
The missiles are just the beginning. Leading up to Taiwan's first-ever free presidential election, on March 23, China will conduct the largest military maneuvers in its history. More than 150,000 troops have been mobilized. The exercises will involve mock bombing runs, simulated naval blockades and amphibious assaults on islands north of Taiwan.
The exercises may be an attempt to provoke a military response from Taiwan, which Beijing could then use as a pretext for `retaliation.' Clearly the exercises are intended to intimidate the Taiwanese electorate and to quell the rising sentiment for autonomy and independence.
Most China analysts are confident that the exercises will cease soon after the elections. Taiwanese diplomats are already putting out the word that Taiwan's President, Lee Teng-hui, who is almost certain to be re-elected, will call for a truce and seek to establish direct trade, shipping and air services.
But for China the essence of the problem is Taiwan's quest for international recognition. It is likely to continue its military harassment until Taipei officially abandons its aspirations for statehood. But Mr. Lee is unlikely to do so, giving the United States a stark choice between supporting the forces of freedom and self-determination on the island or those of suppression and belligerence on the mainland.
This is a choice America needs to avoid. By standing firm against Beijing and counseling Taipei to be cautious, America may be able to bring both sides to the negotiating table.
Given China's current hypernationalistic atmosphere and the struggle to succeed Deng Xiaoping, it is doubtful that it will show restraint on Taiwan if left unchecked. It is up to the United States, with the support of its Asian and European partners, to deter China's aggression. The alternative is escalating tension and possibly war over Taiwan.
[Page: S1991]
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