The War with Iraq.
The war that is being planned by US against Iraq is not one of antiterrorist trends. Its purpose is to overthrow dictator Saddam Hussein with whom US started a war eleven years ago. Yet, if the war will start, it will overlook what will happen to the region as a consequence of the war. Another factor, which is against the war, is the lack of allies of US both internal and external to Iraq. And most importantly destruction that will be caused in the region, possible separation of the country into three states, and possibility of weapons of mass destruction getting into wrong hands, speak out against any action towards the war. There are other solutions than the war, and this fact should not be neglected. The fact that there are other solutions then the war should not be neglected. All factors in the consideration of whether to start on not a war against Iraq are opposing the start of such actions.
War on terrorism has started with fighting with terrorists directly involved in the 9/11 act. The reasonable and logical continuation would be fighting with terrorists who may yet cause similar acts and to those that are active right now, causing bombings, explosions, killings, and making threats. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein is not one of these people. There are stipulations that Saddam Hussein, possibly, supports terrorists’ groups. However, there are no direct proofs of it, and so there is no direct connection between Iraq and terrorism.
What is the purpose then of the war with Iraq? From global point of view the possible goal is to introduce democracy and to give opportunity for the economy of Iraq to develop under natural conditions of political freedom. Also, America would like to overthrow a dictator with whom it has started a war eleven years ago, and to eliminate the possibility of dispersion of weapons of mass destruction. However, if Saddam’s rein is overthrown, there are great chances that the new unstable region would cause anarchy, stirring forces, causing instability, and the possibility that the weapons of mass destruction, like mustard gas, which are in hands of Saddam Hussein, will fall into the hands of extremists and terrorists as the result of the war.
Another issue is how efficient the instilling of American Democratic political system into Iraq will be. The country has its own economic infrastructure right now. If war will cause the fall of that infrastructure, then it will take years, may be even decades, for the economy to rebuild its ties again. This would mean that it would destroy Iraq’s economy. Iraq is a poor country, and is considered as developing or Third World country. Under ten years of UN sanctions Iraq has struggled with economic development. In 1998, Saddam Hussein restricted UN weapon inspectors to come into Iraq to fulfill their duties as weapon inspectors (Timeline par.12). Since then Iraq’s economy bloomed, not restricted by the UN sanctions. If Iraq allows weapon inspections to go on, and instead will ask to ease the economic sanctions, that will be the most valuable compromise made for both sides.
Now, let’s discuss opposition and allies of US. There are four Iraqi oppositions, and, therefore, there are four American allies right in Iraq itself. They are northern Iraqi Kurdish groups, southern Shia Muslim groups, INC or Iraqi National Congress, acting as an umbrella for numerous other exiled oppositions groups, and SCIRI or Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. However, even though they are considered allies they are less than likely to be sufficient force against Saddam for a few reasons. First, is that Kurds have fought a long battle to obtain autonomous Kurdish state that they have in northern Iraq, and, therefore, they will not fight with Saddam unless they know who is the successor. As they state: “Is it going to be an attack for the sake of attacking? Is there an alternative?” (Osman sec.2). Second, is that SCIRI has attempted a rebellion against Saddam in 1999, however, US has failed to give support for the uprising, and, therefore, it has lost not only trust but thousands of valuable lives and possible allies (Who’s sec.5; Analysis: Saddam sec.5). Third, is that INC had a plan how to capture Iraqi president, yet, since most Arab countries disagreed with that plan, they did not allow the liberations army to step on their soil, and there are little chances they will agree now (Who’s sec.2). And, finally, a possible successor of Saddam General Naguib Salimi, head of INC, has little ambition and does not wish to be involved in political intrigues (Analysis: Saddam sec.4). All these are reasons for internals conflicts with Iraqi opposition.
There are also problems with the external to Iraq forces. Saudi Arabia together with Turkey, Iran, and Kuwait, the possible allies in this war against Iraq, for most part do not wish to interfere or are against the start of any military actions against Iraq, each having their own reasons. Saudi Arabia is currently struggling a strong anti-Americanism trend in the population, which Saudi Arabia is unlikely to be able to control, if American military bases will settle on Saudi Arabian territory (Analysis: Region sec.5). Turkey would oppose the military actions by Kurds because of the fear that Kurds would use this opportunity to establish Independent Kurdish State. The reason for Turkey’s worry is the fact that there are twelve million Kurds in Turkey itself, so the rebel Kurds in Iraq may cause rebellion in Turkey (Analysis: Iraqi sec.4; Russell sec.4). Iran would oppose to involving in the war against Iraq, fearing American declaration of ‘axes of evil’, and more importantly, fearing America going after their nuclear reactor at Bushehr. And, finally, even Kuwait, which is protected by United States, will have strong resistance to providing its territory for American bases (Analysis: Region sec.5).
And, finally, what will happen if Iraqi dictatorship of Saddam Hussein is overthrown? In developing countries, usually, a strong and powerful government is what holds the country from internal conflicts and power sieges by various political communities within the country. So is the situation in Iraq, only under a unified political control Iraq will not separate into three states with Kurds at north of Iraq, Shia Muslims in the south, and Sunni Muslims in the center, which is likely to occur if Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein is overthrown. This would cause instability in the region, wars in the region, and, finally, a possibility of weapons of mass destructions getting into the hands of extremist groups, such as terrorists, which should never be allowed to occur.
There exist solutions to the problem, we just have to find the right one. Maybe a more peaceful solution should be found to bring democracy into the country – perhaps education? Are there any realistic solutions? “The UN Security council has unanimously approved a US-Russian compromise that will revise the current sanctions against Iraq within six months, while extending the existing oil-for-food programme. … As part of the deal, Russia said it would approve by 1 June next year a new ‘good review list’, referring to supplies used for both military and civilian purposes that UN council members will be required to approve separately. The United States in turn agreed to review a December 1999 resolution that would ease sanctions in return for increased cooperation with UN weapons inspectors” (UN sec.1). “Branded by President Bush as part of an “axis of evil” that is bent on creating weapons of mass destruction, Iraq has been the subject of the tightest sanctions in modern history for more than a decade. It kicked out UN weapons inspectors in 1998 and refuses to let them return” (Peterson par.8). Whether it will let the UN inspectors to come in, is the pivotal point in the fate of Iraq.
It is vital to understand all factors affecting the situation, which America should do before going into a war with Iraq. The fact that the war is not an act against terrorism reduces the number of supporters of the war (at least by oneJ). The purpose of the war – the elimination of weapons of mass destruction – could be accomplished through reestablishing UN inspectors in Iraq. The building of free and democratic country, instead of current dictatorship in Iraq, is a noble cause, but it will take years to build it, and most effective way is to do it through education, not through war under current conditions existing in the region. The conditions are such that there are no reliable allies in the regions, inside ore outside of Iraq. And, finally, war may cause nonreversible changes in the region causing destabilization and ignition of wars and conflicts which may change political situation not only in the region, but also in the world. There are solutions, we just have to make sure we find the solution that includes consideration of most viable aspects of current situation in the region and in the world, for instance, the introduction of weapon inspectors into Iraq, which, in fact, a more peaceful solution of disarming Iraq, that is it does not destroy innocent or not-so-innocent lives and does not harm Iraq’s economy.
Works Cited
1. “Analysis: After Saddam Hussein.” BBC News. 19 March 2002. 3 April 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/england/world/middle_east/newsid_1879000/1879841.s
tm>.
2. “Analysis: Iraqi opposition to Saddam.” BBC News. 4 March 2002. 3 April 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_1853000/1853522.stm>.
3. “Analysis: Region opposes attack on Iraq.” BBC News. 18 March 2002. 3 April 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/news_id1879000/1879066.stm>.
4. “Blair faces war backlash.” BBC News. 11 March 2002. 3 April 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk_politics/news_id1866000/1866711.stm>.
5. Osman, Hiwa. “Iraqi Kurds cautious on new US war.” BBC News. 26 March 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east>
6. Petterson, Scott. “Russia rethinks its longtime support for Iraq.”
The Christian Science Monitor. The Christian Science Publishing Society: 3 March 2002. 1 April 2002. Lexis-Nexis. <http://web.lexis-lexis.com/universe/document?_m=57374c663ea97150ba73f18fc16d40db&_d…>
7. Russell. “Turks fear fallout from US-Iraq war.” BBC News. 30 March 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east>
8. “Saddam Hussein. Timeline.” BBC Education. 8 April 2002. 8 April 2002.
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/education/walden/sad_timeline2.shtml>.
9. “UN votes to overhaul Iraq sanctions.” BBC News. 29 Nov. 2001. 3 April 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_1683732.stm>.
10. “Who’s who in Iraqi opposition.” BBC News. 26 Feb. 2001. 3 April 2002.
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_1881000/1881381.stm>.
April, 2002