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Part 0: A Modest Proposal
A lot gets made about the missed Southern possibility with Lee's Special Order No. 191. If it doesn't get lost, the Confederacy wins the US Civil War. But what about the missed Northern possibility?
When McClellan first got the Lost Order, he was in position to deliver a blowout win. But then he blew it, and the Union got a close, bloody, hard-fought win at Antietam. WI he took full advantage of the Lost Order? (This may seem to be inconsistent with Little Mac's character, but I'd been wanting to explore this possibility for a long time.)
Consider:
1. McClellan was meeting with a group of local citizens when the Order came to him. He couldn't control his excitement. He gloated over what he had and by some reports even danced a little jig. One of these locals soon dashed off to warn the Southern troops. (Easy to change, need-to-know isn't a hard concept, & info this important should definitely have been secret.)
2. McClellan wasted precious time confirming the Order's authenticity. Rather than setting his men in motion right then, he waited until the next day. (Moderately harder. Stephen W. Sears in his bio of McClellan points out the Order actually made him more sensitive to risk because the fate of the war was suddenly in his hands. But suppose knowing Lee's plans actually emboldened him? The smell of glory can be very tempting.) #1 and #2 let Lee make some frantic last-minute changes, & Jackson still took the Harper's Ferry supply garrison.
3. McClellan was firmly convinced Lee had about 120,000 troops to his 75,000. This was a major cause of mistake #2. In reality, Lee only had about 40,000. Sears indicates it'd be almost impossible for McClellan to admit this error, even just to himself. (Really hard to change, but I think I have something that'll do it. See Part 4.)
Part 1: Uncautious Generals
Sept. 13, 1862
Fredericksburg, Maryland
General George B. McClellan stared down at the sheet of paper in his hands. Accounts by the local citizens meeting with him then would later say his eyes grew wide, but there was no other discernible reaction. "I'm sorry, gentlemen, but I seem to have pressing war matters at hand. I'm afraid I'll have to cut our meeting short." The general turned to his chief aide, Col. Thomas M. Key. "Colonel, would you see that these fine civilians get seen safely out of camp, please? Then report back here quickly."
When Key returned, the general had him issue a series of orders. "See that Franklin on the left moves forward ten miles to the base of South Mountain. I want him to then move on Maryland Heights at dawn. Have General Hooker take the First Corps alongside the Ninth Corps to face South Mountain. I want Burnside to move the whole right at Boonsboro in the morning." (1)
"Yes, sir. Our strategy has changed, then?"
"Oh, yes," answered McClellan, holding up the paper. "We have here information with which, if we can't whip Bobbie Lee, we should be willing to go home! A buck private in the 27th Indiana found it in a field; the Rebs must have lost it. See that the generals get copies with their orders so they'll know what to expect, and so they don't think I've gone insane. Make sure our couriers don't lose anything; I don't want the same mistake Lee made."
"Yes sir. General, sir, if this fails, or if it's a trap with that order left for us to find, we could lose the war now."
"I'll take that chance. The gain is too great to pass up. The Rebs outnumber us, but they are sitting ducks now. We will succeed. We're on a mission from God."
"Yes, sir."
Key walked out of the tent, wondering if his commander had taken leave of all his senses, or suddenly gained senses he'd never had.
1. The preceding battle plan is taken from Sears, who made a proposal on what McClellan should have done.
Part 2: Field Of Death
Sept. 14, 1862
The Peninsular Campaign
Franklin, having moved to take on McLaws, has sent a contingent of his men to intercept and harry Jackson's crossing of the Potomac. They find Stonewall crossing at Williamsport. Franklin's main force easily surprises and defeats McLaws at Maryland Heights (opposite Harper's Ferry). Brig. Gen. John Walker (CSA) was positioned on Loudon Heights (east of Harper's Ferry).
General Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson was in the middle of fording the Potomac on his horse when a flurry of gunfire broke out, accompanied by a little artillery. (Franklin kept most of his big guns for his main force, ordering his smaller force to pester Jackson a little and get out of there before the fighting got heavy.)
"Yankees!" shouted a junior officer. "How'd they know where we was? How could they know?"
"God's will, Lieutenant," Jackson answered, ignoring the man's grammar. But the General made a note to alert Lee to the possibility of a spy in their ranks.
Off in the distance, he thought he heard a much larger force giving McLaws trouble. His own men had begun to return fire, but the Union attack was scoring quite a few hits. Jackson had just reached dry land when a minie ball knocked his horse over. He landed badly, and before he could get up, another horse landed on top of his chest hard. He looked over to his right to see the headless corpse of the lieutenant who had wondered how the North came by its information.
Jackson felt blood rushing into his lungs and knew this would be the day he died. As he started preparing for the Lord to receive him, he heard a number of cries. Some were blasphemies and curses; some were calls for a mother; others were sheer howls of pain. Many carried Southern drawls, as the Union troops seemed to have run off.
Stonewall Jackson's final thought was a prayer for the souls of his men.
Part 3: Orders And Battle
Sept. 14, 1862
The Peninsular Campaign
General Franklin's main force meets McLaws at South Mountain and uses surprise to clobber him. Before McLaws turns and retreats, he has lost 20% of his men. Gen. Walker on Loudon Heights, hearing the battles faced by Jackson and McLaws before they reached their objectives, retreats back to Boonsboro to warn Lee that the Yankees seem to know the Southern plan.
Meantime, at Boonsboro, General Burnside has arrived and given battle. At first, he couldn't believe his orders. He'd never known McClellan to be so rash. But then, he had never known "Young Napoleon" to luck into his enemy's plans, either. No doubt that was why a copy of the Rebel orders was included, so he would not think McClellan had gone out of his mind. "Hold nothing back," his orders read. Burnside was a cautious man, like McClellan. But orders were orders. And, if there was ever a time to be rash, this was it, Burnside figured.
Burnside's half of what would be called the Battle of South Mountain was a one-sided affair. The Confederate troops, having expected Jackson to take Harper's Ferry, thought nothing odd to see so many Union uniforms. It was probably their comrades wearing the spoils of war. By the time they knew the truth, it was too late. Many Confederates died at Boonsboro. All the parts of Lee's army would lose hundreds to desertion. By the time Lee got his forces together and ordered a retreat back to Virginia, his army had shrunk from 40,000 men to 29,000.
Part 4: Reports And Revelations
Sept.15, 1862
Fredericksburg, Maryland
Colonel Thomas Key was disturbed and elated at the same time. He was elated because of the stunning victories won by Union troops, but he found himself deeply disturbed by reports of the opposition they had gotten. The reports certainly seemed to agree with what everybody outside of McClellan's camp believed about Confederate numbers. Now he needed to find a way to persuade the general that he had been wrong the whole time. If he failed, the Army of the Potomac would lose all the advantage it had just won while "Young Napoleon" went back to his dithering ways.
"General, sir, I've got the reports on our recent action."
"Go ahead, Col. Key."
"Well, sir, this was an excellent win for us. Franklin utterly destroyed McLaws, and he sent a small detachment to harass Jackson and retreat quickly. That detachment doesn't think it took many casualties, but they caused much chaos. They also think they witnessed the death of General Jackson, sir."
"Crushed under his horse, sir. Although events were frenetic enough to make it hard to tell for certain. Also, General Burnside reports a similar win. I've heard Southern deserters telling us General Longstreet was wounded and taken to a field hospital."
"A field hospital! What is it?"
"A big tent with patients, sir. But that's not important right now. He was hit in the arm, sir, and should be back to duty in a couple of days. What's interesting is the other stuff I'm hearing. General, from the opposition Burnside and Franklin report facing, plus what we've heard from the recent Rebel deserters, Lee has only put about 40,000 of his men in play."
"Well, why is he holding the rest back? This offensive was very important to him, he should've used the full 120,000. Or at least more than a third.""Agreed, sir. But what's puzzling is that some of the prisoner and deserter accounts indicate Lee only had 40,000 anyway. That goes against what we already heard." McClellan scratched his head at this. Key continued, "I've begun to suspect, General, that Lee's plan had another element, more insidious. What if he's been doing everything he can to convince us he had 120,000? Feeding Pinkerton false facts. Only now is the truth coming through his deception." The general's mouth went wide.
"But... that would mean..."
"That we've outnumbered him all along. Pinkerton has shown the ability to believe what he wants to hear and reject the rest. Even his math is bad. Sir, General Lee must be made to pay for this. He's made us all look like fools. Counting casualties and cowards, he might be down to 30,000 now."
"And pay he shall. Pay he shall, Colonel Key." McClellan's face was furious.
Note: I've taken this tactic I felt that because allowing McClellan to blame someone else rather than himself, namely Lee, for the error in numbers McClellan himself made would make him more willing to admit that there was an error.