Do Process

Enough Talk About Bush’s Past Mistakes, the Real Danger of a Second Bush Term is That His Poor Judgment Will Impact Critical Issues In the Next Four Years

 

“We have a tendency -- I don't know if it's part of the American character -- to say, 'Well, we'll sit down and we'll evaluate the evidence, we'll draw a conclusion’” – Dick Cheney

 

INTRODUCTION

 

The debate thus far in the presidential election remains focused on the substance of Bush’s decisions. One argues for or against the merits of the Iraq invasion, for or against the value of the tax cut, etc. The mistakes are in the past and both candidates are presenting their ways to address these issues going forward and most of the electorate are evaluating the competing solutions. More critical, I believe, is the process Bush uses to make decisions.

 

An examination of Bush’s decision making process is particularly critical in an assessment of this president because his proponents are quick to compensate for an apparent lack of intelligence, minimal eloquence, and incuriosity by justifying that he is a plain spoken man, he speaks form his heart, uses his gut, relies on instinct. I suppose that would be desirable to some if the right decisions are made, yet in nearly every objective measurable instance his “gut” has been wrong.

 

Bush maintains a consistent record of overstating the most dire elements of an argument and ignoring or rejecting any contrary facts. He short cuts the decision making process, leaves out inconvenient information, and doesn’t reexamine prior decisions even when facts change. As articulated by conservative commentator George F. Will: “this administration cannot be trusted to govern if it cannot be counted on to think and, having thought, to have second thoughts.” Bush’s decision making process is simple to the point of being simplistic.

 

I argue that Bush’s inability to make thoughtful decisions is profoundly dangerous because by ignoring critical facts when presenting his case to the American public we cannot determine the best course of action. It destroys the civil discourse because one cannot rely on the President’s interpretation of event.

 

WHAT IS A FACT?

 

As a threshold matter, I think it’s important do define what a fact is and the extent to which facts are relevant . A fact is a piece of information that has objective reality, not subject to interpretation. One can apply an analysis to a fact and come up with a conclusion based on those facts. A faulty analysis will result is an improper, deceptive, or dishonest conclusion.

 

I’ll use the media analysis to Zell Miller’s RNC keynote speech as an example for how one can be technically correct with facts, yet be profoundly wrong in generating conclusions. Miller asserted that John Kerry was weak on defense (a conclusion) based primarily on a single vote Kerry made in 1992 (a fact). Miller justified his conclusion by repeating the fact of a Kerry vote in 1992. You certainly can’t argue when the debate is framed as such, Kerry did make that vote there is no denying that.

 

But, to say that Kerry is against these programs, that is attributing Miller’s interpretation of the 14 year old vote and projecting that into a conclusion regarding how Kerry views these programs and whether Kerry views them as valuable. Miller’s conclusion is not a fact, it has no objective inherent reality. Miller’s interpretation/analysis ignores all other votes and statements Kerry has made over his time in public service. Miller and others can come to a conclusion based on the fact that Kerry voted a certain way 14 years ago that Kerry is against these programs, but they would be wrong.

 

I’ll provide another example that I like.

 

Let’s say that the University of Mississippi brags about their marketing program by saying that the average salary of a 2004 University of Mississippi marketing graduate is $500,000.

 

Is that a fact? Sure. One can’t dispute this fact. You can research it and look it up.

 

Here’s another fact. Eli Manning signed a $45 million contract with the Giants this year, with $20 million guaranteed. He graduated from the University of Mississippi as a marketing major. Assuming there were 40 marketing majors from the university last year (I’m making that number up, but it’s reasonable with a 10,000 person campus), that’s an average salary of $500,000 per person.

 

Would the University be honest in jumping up and down saying that you can make a ton of money if you become a marketing major since the average salary is $500,000? It’s true! It’s factually correct! Like Zell Miller I can waive a piece of paper that provides the fact that the average salary is $500,000. But it doesn’t make the conclusion or assertion that you’ll make a lot of money an honest one. It may be a fact that the average salary is $500,000, but it’s not a fact that you’ll make that kind of money if you go there, it’s a faulty conclusion. Just like Miller’s faulty conclusion that Kerry is against those weapons systems.

 

We’ll see this kind of faulty analysis throughout the following examination of Bush’s decision making abilities.

 

 

BUSH’S DECISION MAKING IN FULL FORCE DURING THE CAMPAIGN

 

The Bush Campaign provides an excellent analogy for how the Bush Administration works. It’s probably more accurate for a challenger than an incumbent, but presumably a candidate is presenting to the public how he and his administration will conduct themselves in office. We can get a good sense for how Bush will solve problems in the future (and give insight as to how he solved problems in the past) by observing him throughout the campaign.

 

In running the campaign, Bush and his people have frequently addressed problems/issues by presumably reviewing all of the facts and circumstances surrounding and issue and through this analysis arrive at a conclusion. I am going to work from the assumption that Bush says what he means and means what he says – for he is the Character President. I will ignore tendencies to conclude that Bush is simply lying and proceed on the belief that Bush applied his reasoned judgment when commenting on the following subjects. The examples are endless, I am only detailing the ones that are freshest in my memory.

 

87 Billion Dollar Vote

 

Regarding Kerry’s decisiveness, the Bush Campaign has concluded that Kerry is inconsistent. The primary specter raised to support this claim is Kerry’s vote on the $87 billion bill to fund the troops, then his vote “against” it. Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of the legislative process in general (and the process surrounding the $87 billion bill in question) knows that this is a failed analysis of the facts. Kerry supported a different version of the bill, it was defeated – with of course the threat of a presidential veto – then he voted against the bill in hopes that it would be further negotiated. If we are to take Bush at his word that he says what he means and means what he says, if he continually uses the $87 billion vote as an example of indecisiveness, the only conclusion one can make is that Bush is inept at solving problem. By not making an effort to acquire the necessary knowledge to make an informed decision, he is negligent to the point of being lethargic. He ignores settled facts and highlights ones favoring his position in order to come to a conclusion.

 

When Bush sits on a stool in front of those who have signed loyalty oaths to him and says that his opponent voted for the war and now is against it and is therefore inconsistent, that’s simply wrong. There’s no room for interpretation, no gray area of analysis, it is simply incorrect reasoning and it should be called on as such. If Bush truly believes this, then he is profoundly incompetent at drawing conclusions from facts.

 

Using Bush’s thought process, it would be perfectly consistent to conclude that Saddam Hussein is an ally of the United States. Our current secretary of defense traveled to Baghdad and shook his hand. It’s the truth. I can wave documents like Zell Miller and proclaim that I had done my research that shows without a doubt that the fact that Rumsfeld met with Hussein is 100% correct and no one can deny that. Of course, that would ignore the facts and circumstances over the past 15 years, but nevertheless that single fact is true.

 

Isn’t it dangerous for our president to possess such a simplistic level of decision making ability?

 

 

Weak on Defense

 

The same can be said for the Bush campaign’s conclusion that Kerry is weak on defense. They took a single vote made 14 years ago against a broad omnibus appropriations bill and concluded that Kerry was against the military. While not only being seriously dishonest, this ignores the fact that Kerry has voted for just about every other military bill since (aside from SDI). Again, in order to present its case, the Bush campaign reviewed all of the available facts and ignored those disfavorable to it which resulted in a failed conclusion.

 

 

Global Test

 

During the first presidential debate Kerry said the following.

 

I'll never give a veto to any country over our security

 

No president, through all of American history, has ever ceded, and nor would I, the right to preempt in any way necessary to protect the United States of America.

 

But if and when you do it, Jim, you have to do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing and you can prove to the world that you did it [past tense] for legitimate reasons.

 

President Bush was standing 10 feet from Senator Kerry, so I will presume that he heard the above statement. Bush interpreted Kerry’s remarks as follows:

 

When he laid out the Kerry doctrine, he said that America has to pass a global test before we can use American troops to defend ourselves.

When our country is in danger, it is not the president's job to take an international poll, the president's job is to defend America

 

No reasonable interpretation of Kerry’s statement would conclude that Kerry would ask permission before defending America. Bush’s analysis is incorrect and reckless.

 

Sensitive War

In August Kerry stated that he would be able to fight a more sensitive war on terror that reaches out to other nations and brings them to our side and lives up to American values in history. Vice President Cheney misinterpreted this phrase as meaning that Kerry would be sensitive against the terrorists. Such an interpretation evidences an incompetence in comprehending what Kerry said and ignores everything else in Kerry’s statement that supports a contrary position.

 

A Matter of Intelligence

In the third debate Bush said: “My opponent said this war is a matter of intelligence and law enforcement. No, this war is a matter of using every asset at our disposal to keep the American people protected.”

 

Kerry did say that intelligence and law enforcement was an element to the war on terror, but never dismissed military or other comprehensive action. Bush’s interpretation was clearly wrong and evidences a reckless disregard of the truth.

 

Not a War

On March 5th Kerry said that he didn’t want to use the term “war” to describe the war of ideas in contrast to the physical battlefield war. Bush, Cheney, and Karen Hughes all failed in analyzing Kerry’s statement by continuously misinterpreting it as Kerry being uncomfortable using the term “war.” Clearly, their analysis was incomplete and erroneous.

 

I could go on and on with more examples, but a clear pattern is revealed. Bush and his campaign continually depend on dubious facts, ignore patent facts to the contrary, and come to a pre-determined conclusion. That certainly seems to be a familiar modus operandi. Similar to how the Iraq invasion was evaluated and presented. Selectively focusing on flawed intelligence, ignoring caveats and warnings, and presenting a failed analysis to the people. This is not just a one time operational error. It supports a recurring pattern of an inability to process and analyze information. Can we afford to continue such incompetence for another four years?

 

 

PAST DECISIONS

 

<Coming Soon>

 

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