May 18
Levels to watch 1750-1730
or
1700-1660
(this depends on where the beginning of the wing began). The above is the destination.
Forwarning: We are about to complete or either have completed a high point in the stock market, and the helio is suggesting that the cycle is near at an end. It is time now to make decisions regarding new emerging markets or to rotate into safe haven or defensive stocks. The estimation for a "shock" wave will occur within the next 6 months, within 3 months near end of 2005 or the first 3 months of 2006 is predicted by my studies of harmonics. There is a possibility of a lag in the economy, wherebe the "shock" felt will create a temporary bottom and either a retest occurs or higher levels into 2007 to mid 2007 is a possibility. The next turn date a very rare occurrence whereby there are 2 transitions - this may arrive near end of September or early October timeframe.
May 5: The target for hierarchy 4th wave (also is a Minor 5th wave of "A:) is closer to 1980, but is said not to be able to breach 2000. If a breach of 2000 occurs, target is closer to 2050. When 4th wave hierarchy completes, it completes "B" of 5th wave from low of 1890 and a downtrend corrective to ensue with Batwing target of 1878-1850 level. This level indicates a possible completion of (B) wave and a retest of 2100-2200 to occur.
May 4: Caution alert. First move estimated at 15-35 points, second move estimated at approx 40-60 points.
Count: Major 5th (A) complete, but will encounter (B) wave. This will at some point retest 2192. The (B) wave can technically breach above the high (possible target 2300-2380). There could be a truncated (B) which fails to make a new high from 2192 which has terrible consequences, and a Batwing target of a larger degree to approx 1400-1300. Major 5th could have completed at 2192, but there are hierarchy siblings of alpha (A)-(B)-(C). (B) is the countermove against the short once a low is held (thinking 1878-1850, and not 1890), and where-ever (C) completes will become the Major (B) high wave off Major 5th and the cycle changes hands from Cycle 3-4 complete and moves to Cycle 5, the LT bearish count and a longer stay to remain short, possible Cycle 5 could be along Nasdaq 800.
What is occuring now will fail, but will retest the 1900 level. The 5th of C could hold at 1900 or above, but usually C is below the low of 1889. Either a hold or no hold, the leg that holds or below it is the leg to go long.
The turndate of May 18th, could either be corrective or continuation of the possible rally after a low.
My research on magnetic polarity went zap when my computer crashed, but hopefully memory will serve me. I need to look out for a new birth cycle which meets negative and positive at the exact parallel formation, this indicates Cycle 3-4 is complete but the data is at least one month delayed this is why I had to estimate that end of 2004 or early 2005 is cycle end, but won't know that for sure until the data is in.
I will communicate when the cavity of the old cycle is closed (this indicates that the cycle downtrend will end and a new beginning will give birth to another cycle). From data compilation of the magnetic polarity switch (cavity closed), keep in mind that a bottom may not be in but to suggest that it is nearing. I would put a 3 month allotment from when the data is received.
Data: Near end of 2004, early 2005 there was a narrowing of the magnetic polarity, but it does not indicate the cycle is closed - not complete. We are not yet in the "white" light and there is no showing of magnetic distribution (scattered debris is a warning sign). When we enter the light, the negative and positive touches and a "crash" or slow grinding down will occur, but usually once it enters the light, a crash occurs. This leads me to conclude that we may not have touched off a high off nasdaq yet and from the count, we will retest 2191 at some point in time.
* serious consideration
If this is going to complete a B high complex, we might not be able to stop at 1800 (although a rally is likely but to test 1920-2000). If 1920 is broken, it is likely that 1900 will not hold, and next level to watch is 1850-1800. If indeed this coming high is a B high complex, and we breach 1800-1790 (allow for marginal excess to 1775), then our next target is along 1670-1625 level (excess to 1600). Why might we breach 1800-1790? Because from a waves perspective, B complex or W3-4 must exceed W5ABC(A) at 1900-1896). If we hold 1800-1790, we may carve out another 5 waves sideways (ie high from 2153). The 5 ways sideways is hypothetical at this time.
Crash Commentary:
Helio Long-term:
An early indication from the Helio that our cycle is shorter than the average. A discolouration has shown up earlier than most cycles, and this is showing up in the upper lattitude region of the magnetic polarity. The cycle is estimated to end at 2006 which is an average and within norm, but since this shading has shown itself, I'm thinking more nearing end of 2004 or early 2005 within the first 6 months is the cycle end.
CYCLE: Major 3-4 (positive)
Next CYCLE: Major 5 (negative). LT duration.
Keep eyes on an EXIT, once a retest of the high occurs, or if presumed correct count, after completing Major 3-4 and on to Major 5. Keep eyes for a possible truncated 5th. If EW follows through with a new high, exit your stage to I would get out of longs and back into short positions on a longer term basis.
Major W5(A): Upon completion will retest 2155 high, and is said to be able to breach above it, but not too far from it (watch levels 2200-2300).
Minor 5 of (C): Same outlook as a Major W5 (A).
Major 5 (C): This will breach 2155, and will move higher than 2300. Destinatin target along 2380-2700.