Jane's.com
By Sean Boyne
Jan 4, 2001

An unconfirmed report that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein suffered a stroke while observing a
military parade in Baghdad on 31 December has focused attention once more on what would
happen if he dies or becomes physically incapacitated -- even though claims that Saddam is
seriously ill have long been denied by Iraq.

The most likely scenario is that the Iraqi leader would be succeeded by his mercurial
younger son Qusay, who heads Iraq's elaborate security apparatus. However, Saddam's other
son Uday, who was partially disabled after being shot in an assassination attempt in 1996, is
also considered to be hungry for power. There are others -- relatives of Saddam or belonging
to his inner circle -- who, it is thought, would also seek to take the top job if the opportunity
arose.

Developments in Baghdad are being closely monitored by the Iraqi opposition. Dissidents
hope that the death or serious illness of Saddam could trigger a violent struggle for power
among those presently close to the leader. Their hope is that the ensuing instability would in
turn encourage a coup by senior military officers that would mark the end of the Saddam
dynasty. A military coup is what the US Central Intelligence Agency has sought to foment in
Baghdad.

The problem with this scenario is that the regime may already have taken steps to ensure that
there is a relatively smooth hand-over of power when Saddam bows out. On 14 April the
newspaper Al-Watan Al-Arabi published a report claiming that Saddam had held a meeting
of those closest to him and that he had decreed that Qusay was to be his successor.
According to the story, those present included Uday; Saddam's powerful secretary, Abd
Hamid Mahmoud; Saddam's cousin and main 'enforcer', the ruthless Ali Hassan Majid; and
three tribal leaders from Saddam's home area of Tikrit. It was reported that they all declared
their allegiance to Saddam's chosen successor.

It has been believed for some time that Saddam, now 63, has had health problems. Last
September there was an unconfirmed report that he was suffering from lymphatic cancer and
that he had appointed a family council under Qusay to run the nation's affairs if he became
incapacitated. A report in the London-based newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat claimed that
among those attending the family meeting that set up the council were Saddam's three
half-brothers, Barzan, Watban and Sab'awi. The newspaper also said that a special security
committee headed by Abd Hamid Mahmoud had decided that only non-Iraqi doctors
should treat Saddam.

Barzan and his brothers were effectively sidelined by Saddam so that his own sons would
have an unimpeded rise to power. Sources say that Barzan, who was recalled in 1999 from
his post as Iraq's ambassador to the UN in Geneva, deeply resents his treatment and that he
may well be a contender to succeed Saddam, although he may lack the power base from
which to launch an effective challenge. It is believed that Ali Hassan Majid, who led the
bloody 'Anfal' campaign against the Kurds in the late 1980s, would also like to be leader,
but would settle for a position of power under Qusay.

In a recent interview for Jane's, Dr Salah Shaikhly of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), the
opposition umbrella group, said he believed it was most likely that the regime had drawn up
plans to ensure that Qusay took over the reins of power when Saddam died or stepped down.
"It is not something they would leave to chance," he said. Nevertheless, he believed that the
departure of Saddam could spark an inter-family feud over the succession and that this could
de-stabilise the regime, providing an opportunity for the army to take power.

Dr Hamid Al-Bayati, of the Iraqi dissident movement the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), also expressed the view in a recent Jane's interview that the
demise of Saddam could produce considerable disorder at the top. "When Saddam dies, there
will be in-fighting," he predicted. "There could be feuding involving the two sons and
Saddam's half-brothers."

Meanwhile, the Sunni-dominated regime faces resentment from many other elements who
would be only too glad to see Saddam and his cronies lose their vice-like grip on power. The
Shias in the south and the Kurds in the north have bitter memories of Saddam's repression.
There is believed to be unrest among senior army officers and even among some of the Sunni
tribal leaders on whom Saddam traditionally relied for support as a result of seeing friends,
comrades and relatives executed by a paranoid regime. There is thought to be deep
resentment even among Saddam's paternal cousins' family, the Majids, following the brutal
murder of returned defector Hussein Kamil (Saddam's son-in-law) and other family members
at Saddam's behest. There is also widespread discontent over the effects of sanctions. The
regime thus has many enemies at home and abroad who would like nothing better than to see
the final downfall of Saddam's dynasty.
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The Kurdistan Observer
www.kurdistanobserver.com