LONDON (Reuters) - Ten years after a U.S.-led coalition unleashed Operation Desert
Storm to drive Iraqi troops out of Kuwait, Iraq is a problem contained but not resolved.

President Saddam Hussein's grip on power in Baghdad seems stronger than ever despite a
decade of United Nations economic sanctions, de facto Kurdish control over northern Iraq
and unsubstantiated rumors of failing health. But in the words of U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright, Saddam is "in his box" for the foreseeable future.

Iraq, which invaded Iran in 1980 and Kuwait in 1990, no longer poses an immediate threat
to its neighbors, analysts say. Nor does it seem in danger of an implosion that could suck in
other regional powers, despite the heavy toll of sanctions.

Iraqi society has been impoverished and the country's relatively advanced health, education
and welfare programs decimated by the embargo, but the state remains strong, says Charles
Tripp, author of a new "History of Iraq."

"Iraq has proved remarkably resilient as a state. It is not a basket case by any means," said
Tripp of London University's School of Oriental and African Studies. He said Iraqi
opposition reports that Saddam, 63, is suffering from lymph cancer or had a stroke appeared
to be wishful thinking.

Tripp said it was likely the authoritarian leader, in power since 1978, would die in bed and
be succeeded, at least at first, by his son Qusay, who controls key security services. In a
system built on violence there is always a chance of a coup or assassination, he said, but
Saddam has shown great ruthlessness in having suspected plotters arrested, tortured and
executed.

GULF WAR COALITION DEAD

The Persian Gulf War coalition of Western and Arab states built by the father of incoming
U.S. President George W. Bush has fallen apart but the core U.N. sanctions remain in place.

The United States and Britain are now alone in enforcing military containment and political
isolation of Iraq amid a rising clamor from the Arab world, France and Russia for an end to
the economic punishment of the Iraqi people.

Washington and London have spent billions of dollars policing sanctions, patrolling no-fly
zones over northern and southern Iraq and funding opposition groups but they have failed to
oust Saddam, the declared aim of U.S. policy since 1997.

The exiled Iraqi opposition is weak and divided. The Kurds, when they are not fighting each
other, care only about keeping control of their own region of northern Iraq. And none of
Iraq's Arab neighbors wants to see the Iranian-backed Shiite Muslim opposition to Saddam's
Sunni-dominated rule prevail.

The Iraqi leader continues to defy U.N. resolutions on the elimination of Baghdad's
suspected weapons of mass destruction.

A U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) on disarmament made big strides in the mid-1990s
in locating and destroying munitions, missiles and production facilities, despite Iraqi
obstruction. But the last arms inspectors left Iraq more than two years ago without being
allowed to complete their mission of checking on suspected chemical and biological weapons
programs.

Saddam has refused to let them back since the United States and Britain staged four days of
air raids in December 1988 to punish Baghdad for blocking UNSCOM's work.

In a low-key war of attrition, U.S. and British warplanes have routinely bombed Iraqi targets
since then in response to what Washington and London say are challenges to the no-fly zones
imposed by the West officially to protect Kurdish and Shiite Muslim civilians.

British officials say privately they will try to persuade the incoming Bush administration to
stop the southern air patrols, which they say are costly, risky and a source of growing public
resentment in Saudi Arabia.

PRESSURE TO EASE SANCTIONS

The 10th anniversary of "the Mother of All Battles" offers little cause for celebration beyond
the borders of Kuwait. Iraq's Arab neighbors have spent tens of billions of dollars on
high-tech U.S. and European weapons but still feel insecure and remain uncomfortably
dependent on Western military protection.

Their discomfort level has increased since the second Palestinian Intifada erupted last year,
fanning public anger at perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and causing most Arab
governments to move closer to Iraq and erode sanctions. which give the United
Nations control of how Iraq spends oil revenue, restricting purchases mainly to food and
medicine and siphoning off a quarter to compensate Kuwait and meet U.N. costs.

They also prevent foreign investment to develop Iraqi oil reserves, the world's second largest.

Iraq manages to smuggle small amounts of oil products out through Turkey, Iran and now
allegedly Syria, providing Saddam with sufficient income to reward key loyalists. But his
efforts to break out of sanctions by forcing lifters to pay a surcharge for Iraqi crude outside
U.N. control have failed so far.

The growing anti-Western mood in the Middle East, coupled with pressure from Security
Council powers France, Russia and China, is fueling pressure to end the embargo, but U.S.
Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell has vowed to "re-energize" sanctions.

British officials are looking at ways to target sanctions more specifically at military and
dual-use items while allowing civilian goods to be imported more easily. But neither
Washington nor London is willing to give up the U.N. financial control on Iraqi oil revenues
for fear that Saddam will use the money to rearm and start throwing his weight around
again.

"Sanctions didn't get Saddam out of Kuwait, they haven't made him disarm and they haven't
brought him down. The current situation undermines the credibility of the U.N. and the
United States," Tripp said.

"The question is whether they can target sanctions more effectively without seeming to have
lost the whole game."
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The Kurdistan Observer
www.kurdistanobserver.com