CAIRO, Egypt (AP) — After 10 years of isolation in the luxury palaces of  his destitute
country, Iraq's president has celebrated the arrival of a  head of state and flight after flight
from countries exasperated with  sanctions that seem to touch all Iraqis except Saddam
Hussein.

Recent flights to Iraq, thinly disguised as humanitarian, gnaw at the edges  of U.N.
sanctions. Further erosion appears imminent, and the next U.S. administration may face a
hard  choice: to climb down on sanctions at the risk of looking weak, or take the risky course
of trying  to dislodge Saddam by force.

U.N. sanctions were imposed as punishment for Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait and kept in
force to curb Saddam's weapons programs. They have been the key component of the U.S.
policy of isolating Iraq.

Over the weekend, Defense Secretary William Cohen reiterated the U.S. position that the
sanctions would remain in force until Iraq allows U.N. weapons inspectors to verify
it is not producing weapons of mass destruction.

``Saddam Hussein has an opportunity to provide relief from any suffering or deprivation on
the part of the Iraqi people ...,'' Cohen told reporters during a trip to Tunisia. ``Once
he complies with the Security Council resolutions, the sanctions come off.''

Last month, years of grumbling from Russia and France, Iraq's key allies on the U.N.
Security Council, turned to defiance of the U.N. committee that oversees sanctions. Arab and
other world leaders also appear ready to let Saddam out of the sanctions ``box.''

Russia and France merely notified the United Nations of the flights last month to Iraq,
instead of waiting for the necessary U.N. clearance.

Now, Jordan, a U.S. ally and Iraq's neighbor, is requesting U.N. permission
for regular passenger flights. Aeroflot, Russia's state-run airline, says it plans to resume
passenger  flights as early as this month; so far, it hasn't sought U.N. approval.

Turkey on Monday became the ninth country to send a token humanitarian flight to
Baghdad, and more flights from Egypt, Syria and Turkey went to Iraq Wednesday.

The United States is critical of what it considers breaches of the  sanctions, and of
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for visiting Saddam two months ago in Baghdad. But it
hasn't  flexed its diplomatic muscle to get these governments back in line behind its Iraq
policy.

With the Nov. 7 U.S. presidential election approaching, no one wants a confrontation on Iraq
because all the realistic policy alternatives would be seen as a U.S. climbdown, said
Gideon Rose, a senior fellow with the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations who
served on the National Security Council early in the Clinton administration.

`People just want Iraq to go away during the election year,'' he said. It's  ``the question that
the next administration will have to confront.''

``The policy has to be re-examined,'' said Rosemary Hollis, head of the Middle East program
at London's Royal Institute for International Affairs. ``It's eroding, and I would calculate that
the Americans hope that it will only continue to erode as opposed to completely come
unstuck prior  to the elections.''

Touring OPEC nations, Chavez became the first head of state to visit Iraq since the 1991
Gulf War. Although he skirted U.N. flight restrictions by driving into Iraq, it was the first
high-profile crack in Iraq's isolation.

``Who is going to be the next hero?'' Iraq's Babel newspaper, owned by Saddam's son, Odai,
asked afterward.

Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid stepped forward, saying he would visit soon.
Then Russia and France sent in their flights.

The economic temptations are apparent: Iraq has promised to reward its friends with
business deals once sanctions ease. The Russian flight carried oil executives openly
expressing  their economic interest.

Arab governments, which sided with the United States against Iraq after the  Kuwait
invasion, have uncomfortably obeyed the rules. Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Tunisia and the
United Arab Emirates have sent planes to Iraq since the French and Russian flights, but only
after  getting the nod from the U.N. Sanctions Committee.

Once the French flew in, ``the Arabs who've been complaining about  (sanctions) really had
no choice but to pile in with flights to Baghdad,'' Hollis said.

With each Arab flight has come the argument that the sanctions are harming  civilians,
causing malnutrition, disease and a brain drain, while Saddam continues to build  his palaces
and armies. Arab leaders are coming to the conclusion that if Saddam cannot be forced from
power, ways must be found to live with him.

Visiting Egypt earlier this month, Syrian President Bashar Assad said  sanctions must be
reconsidered because they never were meant to destroy or humiliate Iraq.

Standing at Assad's side, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said his  government wouldn't
hinder any private-sector flights to Iraq.
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The Kurdistan Observer
www.kurdistanobserver.com

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