Lecture Notes Day 9—Public Opinion and Political Socialization

 

“In a very real sense, it will not be one man going to the moon…it will be an entire nation.  For all of us must work to put him there.  This is not merely a race.  Space is open to us now; and our eagerness to share its meaning is not governed by the efforts of others. We go into space because whatever mankind must undertake, free men must fully share….  But why, some say, the moon?…And they may well ask, why climb the highest mountain?  Why, thirty-five years ago, fly the Atlantic?  Why does Rice play Texas?….We choose to go to the moon in this decade, and do the other things, not because they are easy but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills….Many years ago, the great British explorer George Mallory, who was to die on Mount Everest, was asked why did he want to climb it, and he said, ‘Because it is there.’….  Well, space is there, and…the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there.”—John F. Kennedy, Speech to Congress in 1962.

 

I.               How Powerful is Public Opinion?

a.     Originally, public opinion was thought to be dangerous

                                               i.     Hence Madison’s arguments in Federalist #10—controlling faction

                                             ii.     Limiting spread of a majority opinion through large districts, large territories, small legislatures, etc.

b.     In age of electronic media, public opinion has become more important and more powerful

                                               i.     E.g., protests over Vietnam War => Johnson’s decision not to run in 1968

                                             ii.     E.g., Watergate => Nixon’s resignation in 1974 after opinion polls showed his approval rating at 25%

                                            iii.     E.g., George H. W. Bush’s approval at 91% immediately after Gulf War but public opinion on the economy => Clinton’s election in 1992

                                            iv.     E.g., Clinton’s impeachment and trial resulted in acquittal partly because of his high approval rating which was because of a good economy

II.             Defining Public Opinion

a.     “Multiple publics”: (i.e., factions with varying ideas/opinions.  E.g., Religious Right, economic conservatives, NAACP, NOW, ACLU)

b.     What comes across as “public opinion” is, according to the book, “the aggregate (group/sum total) of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the population

c.     There are also multiple ranges of opinion on any given issue

                                               i.     E.g., whether tobacco companies are responsible for nicotine addictions—most of the public on a broad level says  no (to generally hold them responsible would adversely affect the business/industry/economy and allow for social irresponsibility, blaming someone else), but

                                             ii.     There is a more equal balance between those who support and those who oppose the right of private citizens to sue the tobacco companies for damages as a result of tobacco related illnesses (because if we restrict the liberty to sue/to hold perceived offenders accountable, then we no longer live in a free society where we have access to government institutions to redress our grievances as guaranteed by the first amendment)

d.     General argument may be made that there is a concern for individual liberty that may outweigh the concerns of the public as a whole—it’s your own fault, but I’ll fight for your right to blame someone else if that’s what you want to do.

e.     If it helps the common good/civil liberty (or my good), then I’m for it; if it does not help the common good/civil liberty (or my good), I’m at best indifferent or at worst entirely opposed.

III.           Consensus: General agreement among the citizenry on an issue

a.     Rarity of agreement among the citizens on certain issues.

                                               i.     E.g., some would support war with Iraq regardless of evidence one way or another

                                             ii.     Others would support war with Iraq under more varied and qualified conditions—is there the possibility of a threat?  Is there a reality of a threat to an ally?  Is there a reality of a threat to US? Has the U.S. been attacked?

                                            iii.     Still others would oppose war altogether

b.     Consensus in the war debate, then, would be that war is preferable if a significant threat existed (what takes in the largest portion of the population, constituting a huge majority—concentric circles)

IV.           Divisive Opinion

a.     Public opinion is polarized between two different opinions

                                               i.     Recent elections (Gore and Bush roughly equal in total votes)

                                             ii.     Abortion issues: pro-life and pro-choice camps are roughly equal

                                            iii.     Should tobacco companies be driven out of business by lawsuits (see chart on page 197)

b.     Makes policy decisions very difficult for public officials

V.             Non-Opinion: people are ambivalent about a particular issue

a.     Is it a good thing for China to become a member of the WTO? (see p. 197, fig. 6-3). Substantial portion of the population was unconcerned or did not know

b.     Allows wiggle-room for politicians; if people are uninformed or do not care, politicians may have a green light to proceed with their own agenda

c.     But, there is risk that a consensus or at least a more evenly divided public opinion will form after an action is taken, so the risks of such an action must be weighed before action is taken.

VI.           Private Opinion Becoming Public Opinion

a.     Opinion is expressed publicly and concerns public issues (your vocal protests against your neighbor’s poor lawn maintenance is not public opinion; your vocal support of going to war is public opinion)

b.     Private opinions expressed through political processes become public opinion (what you do at the ballot box, whether you write to your government leaders, use the media to voice your opinion, etc.)

VII.         Quality of Public Opinion

a.     Intensity: The strength of a position for or against a public policy on an issue

                                               i.     An intense, well-organized minority can often generate enough support in the government to have its way, particularly if the majority opinion is sluggish/non-committal. 

                                             ii.     E.g., the Religious Right is a minority in the population, but its high-intensive lobbying, campaigning, and fund-raising for Congressional candidates indebts the office-holders to them; laws get passed with a decidedly evangelical flavor; RR also has a broad spectrum of issues to deal with, giving it visibility in a number of important areas and it draws people from all walks of life (typically liberal groups are more single-issue-oriented, or are concerned with only one segment of the population)

                                            iii.     E.g., the ACLU supports many minority opinions, but its intense legal activity in the federal court systems puts pressure on the judges to issue rulings in their favor (e.g., the Jehovah’s Witnesses have had more influence on the Establishment and Free Exercise doctrines of the Supreme Court than any other religious group)

b.     Fluidity: extent to which public opinion changes over time (often in response to rapidly changing social and political conditions)

                                               i.     Most recently, higher numbers for Bush’s approval rating and support for going to war after Colin Powell’s presentation to the UN

                                             ii.     Perceptions of the USSR before and after the fall of the Berlin Wall

c.     Stability: Extent to which public opinion remains constant over a period of time

                                               i.     African American support for the Democratic Party since the Roosevelt administration

                                             ii.     Religious Right support for Republican Party since the early 1970s.

d.     Relevance: Extent to which an issue is of concern at a particular time.  Issues become relevant when public views them as pressing or of direct concern to daily life

                                               i.     E.g., when economy is sour, people are concerned about; when it’s doing well, it’s not a top priority

                                             ii.     When there is a threat of war, people are more likely to be concerned about defense budgets; if peacetime, there is lack of concern or a willingness to cut back on defense spending

e.     Political Knowledge: 

                                               i.     Stronger feelings about an issue usually result in greater knowledge about that issue (wanting to know more about it)

                                             ii.     Political information is insufficient in this country and is easily forgotten.  (How many people know who their representatives are in Congress?)

                                            iii.     Lack of public concern => unrepresentative democracy; government by the people falls by the wayside and trusteeship among congressmen becomes more common (they tend to vote with their own instincts rather than looking to the public for guidance)

1.     May have been what the Federalists anticipated when they argued for representative democracy in the first place

2.     Anti-Federalists were deluded thinking the people would be concerned with the daily workings of government

VIII.       Public Opinion Polls

a.     Began during the 1800s with magazines and newspapers polling their readers (not very scientific approach to polling—results only reflected the views of a particular readership)

b.     Developed into more scientific process by the 1930s with the Gallup Poll and the Roper Poll

                                               i.     Small (usually around 1500), random sampling of people

                                             ii.     Designed to reflect the views of the population at large (see p. 202)

c.     Polls can be wrong

                                               i.     Information may be outdated by the time polling data are disclosed

1.     Ronald Regan was predicted to lose to Carter in some of the last polls before the 1980 election

2.     Truman was predicted to lose to Dewey in last poll, taken one week before election, of the 1948 election

                                             ii.     Sampling errors

1.     Unscientific process of selection

2.     Sample may be too small

3.     Biases such as availability of people during the day to answer a phone, people who own a phone, people more likely to answer a phone, etc.

                                            iii.     Poll Questions can be misleading

1.     Limited choices of response to given questions (yes/no without any maybe)

2.     People want to please the interviewer and tailor their answers accordingly

3.     Questions can be phrased a number of different ways to sway the outcome

a.     1995 Republican citation of public desire to trim the annual increases in Medicare spending

b.     1995 Democratic citation of public opinion not wanting Medicare spending cuts

c.     Ramsey Farley’s distorted use of Chet Edwards’ voting record to say that Edwards opposed school prayer (reality is that Edwards opposes government-sanctioned school prayer) Question could be asked thus: Knowing that Chet Edwards opposes school prayer, are you more or less likely to vote for Edwards on election day?

IX.          Political Socialization: Process by which people acquire political beliefs and attitudes: Some General trends follow

a.      Family influences:

                                               i.     Parental approval sought when young

                                             ii.     Parent’s party identification may sway young voters one way or the other, particularly if party identification is strong in a household

b.     Educational Influences:

                                               i.     Higher level of education generally means higher level of interest in politics (however, many college students are unconcerned about politics and believe government has no influence on their lives); higher education also leads to more moderate/liberal ideas generally; more ability to understand the views of the other and to defend one’s own views effectively

                                             ii.     Lower level of education generally means less intense political interests; more conservative on many social issues, less ability to understand what other people’s views are

c.     Peer Group Influence:

                                               i.     Friendships—wanting to please the people with whom you associate

                                             ii.     Racial/ethnic identities—common cause of securing civil liberties

                                            iii.     Labour unions—common cause of supporting industry, etc.

d.     Religious Influence

                                               i.     Fundamentalist Christians more conservative socially and economically

                                             ii.     Roman Catholics more liberal economically/welfare issues, moderate-conservative socially

                                            iii.     Jews tend to be more liberal on all political issues

                                            iv.     Other religious groups fall into place depending upon issues of importance to them; not enough research has been done on the “religious minorities” that are becoming prominent on the political landscape

e.     Economic Status and Occupation

                                               i.     Lower classes—liberal welfare policies/conservative social policies

                                             ii.     Upper classes—conservative economic policies/tolerant of social change

                                            iii.     However, higher education moderates/liberalizes regardless of economic background 

f.      Influence of Political Events

                                               i.     E.g., Watergate/secret bombing of Cambodia—distrust of government and Republican Party generally (views moderated with time)

                                             ii.     Great Depression—Democratic Party gained lifelong adherents when FDR’s New Deal helped salvage the US economy (generational effect—long-lasting effect of events of a particular time on political opinions or preferences for those who came of age during that time)

g.     Influence of Opinion Leaders (those whose job it is to influence the opinions of others because of their position in society or personality)

                                               i.     Politicians

                                             ii.     Pundits

                                            iii.     Religious leaders

                                            iv.     Lobbyists

                                             v.     Media commentators

                                            vi.     University scholars

h.     Media Influence

                                               i.     More people today relying on the media as the primary source of information

                                             ii.     Are now as influential or more so than family

i.      Demographic Traits

                                               i.     Race/Ethnicity

                                             ii.     Age

                                            iii.     Social Class

                                            iv.     Region

j.      Gender Gap

                                               i.     Difference between the percentage of vote (or approval ratings from) of women and the vote (or approval ratings from) of men

                                             ii.     Women generally more liberal than men

X.            Political Culture: Collection of beliefs and attitudes toward government and the political process held by a community or nation (shared beliefs about the most important values of the nation)

a.     Liberty, equality, property

b.     Freedom of religion

c.     Community service/personal achievement

d.     Political Trust: degree to which individuals express trust in the government and political institutions, usually measured through surveys

XI.          Public Opinion about Government

a.     Ambivalence in America toward national institutions

b.     Still people turn to government for solutions to their major problems (e.g., unemployment, high crime rates, decline of morals/values, drugs, war, etc)

c.     US Government is responsive to public opinion

XII.        Spectrum of Political Beliefs

a.     Liberal

                                               i.     Big government

                                             ii.     National solutions to major problems

                                            iii.     Intervention of the national government in the economy

b.     Conservative

                                               i.     Small local government

                                             ii.     States’ rights

                                            iii.     Privatization of welfare/government bureaucracy

c.     Ideologues

                                               i.     Hard-line issue supporters (e.g., Pat Buchanan)

                                             ii.     Holistic, comprehensive worldview (Christian Reconstructionists)

                                            iii.     Small percentage of the population—largely because people are ambivalent about political issues—are concerned only with party labels or with economic well-being

d.     Majority of people

                                               i.     Daily events are more important than political issues

                                             ii.     Religious influences—in many European countries and elsewhere, political parties have developed highly comprehensive worldviews of their own largely in reaction to the Church’s dominance for the millennium and a half before the French Revolution.  America avoided this opposite extreme by allowing the Church and all other religions freedom to operate on an equal plane before the law.  Congress cannot restrict or advance Church/religious activity.  Therefore, in America, religious groups are still the foundation of more ideological and comprehensive thinking but are forced to compromise in the public arena and work for a common good that transcends their particular worldview.  The major political parties have developed not as ideological organizations but as umbrella organizations through which people may make decisions based on compromise and present them to the people writ large as a platform that is used to judge the party’s candidates.  Compromise is the basis of the American system

XIII.      Public Opinion and the Political Process

a.     Strong public opinion is crucial to strength of elected officials

b.     When president’s approval rating is low, he is generally ineffective (hence, Nixon resigned with a 25% approval rating)

More recently, Trent Lott’s numbers dropped after his comments about Strom Thurmand; he resigned because he knew it would be bad for his party if he stayed in his position as majority leader