Participation : What factors affect participation (voting) ?
Acts aimed at two things: 1.
influencing behavior of the people who make public policy; 2. influence through
choosing who makes public policy
A.
Votes
= Benefits – Costs
a.
Indirect
i.
Benefits:
policy, psychological
ii.
Costs:
time (researching candidates, propositions, etc.; voting)
b.
Direct
i.
Benefits:
sense of fulfillment of duty
ii.
Costs:
disappointment
B.
Personal
Factors
a.
Demographic
factors (i.e., population division, objective description of someone)
i.
Education:
greater understanding of the process => higher participation (costs of
information is reduced)
ii.
Age:
more time and greater benefit for the old; lifelong learning/experience teaches
importance of participation
iii.
Occupation:
reduces costs because of available information
1.
farmers
turn out at higher levels than expected b/c many government programs
help/hinder farmers (e.g., subsidies, loans, etc.)
2.
businessmen
(tax policy awareness, etc.)
iv.
income:
higher income people are more likely to vote than lower income people. Not much
effect on turnout
C.
Psychological
Factors Influencing Turnout
a.
Education
affects
i.
Civic
duty
ii.
Involvement
in politics (often entertaining for “political junkies”)
iii.
Political
efficacy
1.
internal
efficacy: sense of confidence and competence (I can understand politics)
2.
external
efficacy: government is responsive to what the people want
iv.
partisanship:
attachment to a political party (decline in recent years)
D.
Legal
Factors
a.
Voter
Registration laws: additional costs
i.
Closing
date: number of days before an election, the last day to register for an
election
ii.
Motor
voter: reduces costs because you are already there
b.
Mail
balloting: reduces costs, increases turnout
c.
Early
Voting
E.
Political
Factors
a.
Close
elections: greater turnout
i.
Political
parties reduce costs of voting by
1.
holding
voter registration drives
2.
mobilizing
voters (giving rides, etc.)
b.
Negative
campaigning; often disgusts people and brings lower turnout, but at times
produces the opposite effect.
c.
Political
parties are being replaced by the media and the pollsters
Government-Public Linkage Systems:
Input-Feedback;
Representation; Accountability
* Elections
are the way voters can hold politicians accountable
Actors: voters and
candidates
Interests:
election of a surrogate and winning elections
Resources:
vote/information and money/time
What Affects How People
Vote?
A.
Social
Groups:
a.
Group
interests (traditional)
b.
Association
with people in one’s own social groups; communication =>opinion leaders
c.
Cross-pressured
due to multiple group membership
B.
Party
Identification:
a.
Direction
(which party do you lean toward?)
b.
Strength
of identification
c.
Perceptual
screen (filter of perceptions) used to reinforce our own predispositions
C.
Issues
(spatial theory):
a.
Very
liberal
b.
Very
conservative
c.
Most
people fall somewhere along the median between the two extremes
D.
Ideology:
overall worldview
E.
Retrospective
Voting: look at the past rewards to decide future preferences
a.
Outcome
oriented
i.
Simple:
reward and punishment
ii.
Mediated:
look at how the incumbent has performed and is s/he responsible for how s/he
performed?
F.
Candidates’
Images and Characters: does not require much information (but do we want to
evaluate our leaders based upon “he seems like a nice guy”?)
G.
Expectations:
a.
Social
groups: speak to issues that concern the group; build coalitions of social
groups
b.
Party
identification: vote for parties’ candidates no matter what; appeal to
independents
c.
Issues/ideology:
clear issue positions
d.
Retrospective
voting
e.
Candidate
Character: honesty, trustworthiness
H.
Reality:
a.
Social
Groups: candidates do not appeal to them
b.
Party
Identification: remains shallow
c.
Issues/ideology:
vague and ambiguous goals/not always a clear position on issues of importance
d.
Retrospective
voting: candidates take advantage of their positions
e.
Candidate
character: forced to make or not to make character based choice
*Nomination Process: Differences from the
general election (The same basic procedure is followed in Congressional and
Presidential election campaigns; differences will be explained in class).
A.
Sequential:
one follows another over a period of time, state by state; general election is
one day
B.
Multiple
candidates: not just two or three as in general election; survival is the
key
C.
Different
rules:
a.
Caucuses
(a closed meeting of party leaders on a specified day and at a specified time
and place to select party candidates or policy; also, a meeting of party
members to select candidates and propose policies—in states like IA; caucuses
are usually governed by party rules, not state laws; balloting is open, not
secret; caucuses may be more susceptible to special interests or ideological
suasion than the primaries.)
b.
Primaries (first implemented in 1903 in WI;
major reforms after 1968)
i.
Closed
primaries (limited to people who reveal their party affiliation at the time of
voter registration or at the primary election site BEFORE casting a
ballot—party affiliation may be printed on a voter registration card)
ii.
Open
Primary (voters may decide which party’s candidates to vote for once they are
at the voting booth—it’s a more private affair—party affiliation stamped on the
registration card simply to preclude a voter in one party’s primary from voting
in any potential run-off elections in the other party’s primary; no
restrictions on independent voters; this is what TX has)
iii.
Blanket
Primary (voters may vote for candidates of more than one party; more expensive
and time consuming for candidates because they have to persuade a larger
constituency—in states like AK, LA, and WA; constitutionality has been
challenged in Supreme Court and court has ruled in favor of restricting blanket
primaries in the name of preserving the party’s rights of association; reforms
will be forthcoming)
c.
more
time v. less time (front-loading of primaries to increase a state’s influence
in choosing nominees of national party candidates; Super Tuesday in the South
designed to give better chance to moderate Southern Democrats over Liberal
Northern Democrats in the National nominating process; some states’ primaries
are later in the election season—Calif.’s used to be in June)
d.
inconvenience v. convenience (qualifications
to appear on ballots in the different states vary, etc.)
D.
Momentum
Resources:
a.
Attention
from media (front-runners chosen early—esp. after NH and IA primary and caucus)
b.
Money
(if ahead in the media’s eyes, more money will flow a candidate’s way; if
behind, then money donations begin to slow to a trickle)
c.
Endorsements
for the winner of primary or caucus—former candidates, party leaders, etc.
Historical Factors in Voting
and Non-Voting
A.
Party
Decline—less commitment to one party label; more independent voting; parties
are not the ideological arenas they once were
B.
Role
of Media—if one’s favorite candidate appears far behind in media polls, one is
less likely to make the effort to go vote; if one’s candidate is far ahead, one
is less likely to make the effort to go vote.
Voter turnout is greatest when the elections are too-close to call
C.
Limited
Political Choice/Alternatives—both major candidates appear moderate,
visionless, non-ideological
D.
Low
Internal Efficacy
E.
Difficulties
in Voting Registration
Congressional Elections
A. Views of Members of Congress
1.
Delegate
(middleman; gets instructions from constituents and follows them; delegate is
constituent preference)
2.
Trustee
(someone who acts in the best interests of constituents; trustee is the
legislator’s preference)
B. Incumbent Behavior
1.
Constituencies
2. geographic constituency
3.
reelection
constituency (people needed to be reelected)
4.
primary
constituency (hard won, solid supporters)
5.
personal
constituency (advisors, etc.)
C. Home Style: how members of Congress present themselves to their
constituencies (Build Trust to gain leeway)
1. advertising (press releases, constituent
services, etc.)
2.
Being
in the district (physical closeness to constituencies)
3.
ideological
closeness to constituents (position-taking)
D. Challenger Behavior
1.
Progressive
ambition (drive to get ahead); “moving up the ladder”
2.
Costs
and Risks (no incumbent/open seat => likely run)
Incumbent
Strong Weak
Strong Won’t Run Might Run
Weak Might Run Might Run
E.
Money
a.
No
public funding
b.
Own
money (personal wealth; cannot be bought off if personally wealthy; no limits
upon how much one can spend—Buckley v. Valeo decision ruled that
limitations on campaign spending limits free speech)
c.
Individual
contributions: limited to $1000 per person per candidate per election cycle
(primary and general election regarded separately); $5000 a year to a
PAC/overall limited to $25,000 a year to federal candidates; practice of
“bundling” (pooling of resources together as a law firm might take its
individual donations to give to specific candidates in one lump sum with the
law firm’s name on it)
d.
PACs
(see interest group lecture)
F.
Legacy
of Reforms
a.
Progressive
era anti-party reforms
b.
1970s
campaign finance reforms
c.
unintended
consequences
i.
Incumbent
advantage
1.
Franking
privilege (name recognition)
2.
Service
to district (pork)
3.
Fund-raising
advantages (favored by PACs)
d.
Motives
for Reform
i.
“fix”
the problem
ii.
interests
of the “out” party
G.
Party
Committees:
a.
National
parties (DNC or RNC) can give money directly to candidates ($5000 for House;
$17,500 for Senate)
b.
Congressional
campaign committees: spending on behalf of members of Congress ($27,620 for
House; $1.3 min. for Senate); can get up to $20,000 from individuals each year
c.
“Soft
money”: related to party building; registration drives, etc.
H.
Independent
Expenditures: cannot be done in collaboration with candidate’s committee—VERY
RARE
Presidential Election: The
Electoral College Process
States are allowed a certain number of
electoral votes based upon their total number of Representatives (based upon
population) and Senators (each state has two).
E.g., Texas has 32 Representatives, 2 Senators, therefore 32 + 2 = 34
electoral votes. Washington, D.C.,
though not a state, is given 3 electoral votes. Total number of electoral votes up for grabs is 538; total needed
to win is 270 (absolute majority).
No State has fewer than 3 electoral votes
since no state can be without at least one Representative. California has the most electoral votes with
55. Electoral votes are apportioned every
10 years since the number of Representatives each state may have may change
with the new census figures. However,
by law, there can be no more than 435 Representatives, so it is simple
redistribution, not addition of Representatives, and thus also of electoral
votes.
When you go vote in a presidential election, you
are not voting for the presidential candidate or vice presidential candidate;
rather, you are voting for a slate of electors who will in turn elect the
president when the electoral college meets (in the 50 state capitals and in
Washington, D.C.) in December after the election in November. The votes are tallied at the opening session
of Congress in January. Some States
place the names of the electors on the ballot beside the name of the candidate
they are pledged to support (generally electors are chosen as an honorary
reward for party loyalty, service, etc.)
Some States require electors to vote for the candidate for which they
are pledged (i.e., if they are pledged to vote for Bush, they must vote for
Bush; if for Gore, then they must vote for Gore) Some states do not require electors to vote for the candidate to
whom they have pledged (i.e., they may feel that the other major party
candidate or a third party candidate may better represent their interest, or
they may vote for someone else for ceremonial reasons, etc.)
The winner of each state’s electoral votes is
determined by who receives the plurality of votes in that particular
state. (e.g., if A gets 48% of the vote
in Texas and B gets 47% of the Texas vote, then A wins all of Texas’ 34
electoral votes; A few states require an absolute majority of votes [50% + 1]
for a candidate to win their electoral votes; A couple of states divvy their
electoral votes out proportionally to the number of votes each candidate
receives [e.g., Maine has 4 electoral votes but may split its votes 3 to 1]).
Thus it does not require a majority of the
national popular vote to win a presidential election (No one since the first
George H.W. Bush in 1988 has won a majority of the national popular vote). It
DOES require a majority of electoral votes to win (270 or more).
If there is no majority in the electoral
college, then from the top three candidates, the House of Representatives will
choose the President and the Senate will choose the vice president. Each state in the House will have one
vote. Thus it will require 26 votes out
of the 50 states to win the election.
No election has gone to the House of Representatives since 1824. The
only other time was in 1800. (The
founders expected the House to have to decide more times than not). Nowhere in the Constitution does it specify
what would happen to the votes of Washington, D.C. if the House were to have to
decide.
Once the election is made official, the
President-elect will take office on 20 January following the November
election.
****Disclaimer: These notes do not correspond exactly to the book. They come directly from my own college notes. It is up to you to make the connections between what is herein presented and what is in the book when studying for the exam.