The Security Threat of North Korea: North Korea's Ballistic
Missiles, Nuclear Warheads, Infiltration Underground Tunnels,
and Unification Strategy

Foreword

The discussion here for the given subject is based mainly on the North
Korea's military posture though political, economical, and diplomatic matters are
comparably influential for the security of Korean Peninsula.

In the history of war warlike dictators and communists have not been reliable
counterparts for peace talks and negotiations. Instead, they tend to take
advantage of such opportunities to win their goals by deceiving or giving
un-thought-of difficulties to the other party. Their means most frequently used
to achieve their goals have been surprise attack or intentional violation of
mutual agreement as was the case in the World War II, Vietnam, and Korean
wars. In most cases, at least at the beginning they were successful and in
Vietnam US forces and its allies finally were expelled. The main cause of
losing war in Vietnam politically was North Vietnamese intentional violation of
the peace agreement with the USA by massive military attack and militarily
might be the infiltration underground tunnels, technically assisted by North
Koreans and dug even in the process of and after the peace talking.

The lifetime aim of Kim Il-Song of North Korea, faithfully followed by his son
Kim Jong-Il to unify Korean Peninsula under their control has not been
changed ever since Kim's regime was established in the North. The Korean
war of June 25, 1950 was to realize Kim Il-Song's aim, but it was failed due
to the involvement of the US forces, which was not foreseen by Kim Il-Song.
Thereafter, surmounting the US armed forces has been a huddle two Kims
had to overcome in order to realize their dream of unification of Korean
Peninsula.

Unification strategy of two Koreas: the South and the North during ruling
periods of South's Park Jong-Hie and North's Kim Il-Song

The deceased president Park of the South once said that our unification
strategy should be the one without actually waging war and foreign
intervention. To achieve this goal, he not only concentrated on developing the
economy but also initiated the development of medium-range surface-to-
surface missiles to surpass the North's military power within a short period of
time. This drew suspicion of him from abroad of nuclear warhead development
in South Korea.

Surprisingly, the deceased Kim Il-Song of the North might have had a similar
unification strategy, which could be perceived through his conversation with
Jochongnyon, the pro-north Korean residents' league in Japan. Kim said, that is,
"We should assist establishment of sturdy Pohang steel company. We will make
use of it when unified." This suggests that unification of Korean Peninsula
under the communist rule would be accomplished by him without a destructive
war and then most of the advanced and valuable facilities in the South could
be intact and utilized after unification. This strategy as in the South might have
caused the development of medium range surface-to-surface missiles and
additionally nuclear warheads, and not economy whose development inherently
is adverse under communism. However, these weapons may not be for ground
combat purposes but rather they may be to deter additional US forces from
landing in Korean Peninsula to intervene in Korean war.

Infiltration underground tunnel must be the one he was going to utilize in
ground war to occupy South Korea. One of self-confident tactics of Kim
Il-Song's might be using infiltration tunnels through which combatants can be
infiltrated to the rear of enemy, easily achieving a surprise attack from the
rear. This tactics has been well proven in guerrilla warfare in Vietnam and
could be the first and one of the most creative tactics in the history of war if
utilized in an all-out war in Korea. If this tactics is successful in Korean
Peninsula, casualties and destruction of buildings and facilities from battle can
be minimized and Kim's final goal can be accomplished in accordance with his
scenario.

Kim Jong-Il, closely following his father's military strategy proposed one state,
two systems under a federation rule for the unification of Korean Peninsula
after the first meeting with Jang Jie-min in Bei-jing. It has been reported that
he is more belligerent than his father and is a rather ambiguous character.
North Korean defector Hwang Jang-Yop said Kim Jong-Il requested Kim
Il-Song to attack South Korea in 1992, but senior Kim refused, saying that it
was not the right time to attack. The main reason that the roguish Kim Jong-Il
withheld his intention to invade South Korea till now might not be because of
US forces in Korea but the difficulty he might encounter in controlling South
Korea as he sometimes mentioned. Millions of South Koreans may be sacrificed
in setting up his regime in South Korea. This calamity, he might think, could
be avoided by adopting a federation with one state, two systems, that is,
communism in the North and capitalism in the South. This unification strategy
of Kim Jong-Il was modeled after the Chinese regime of one state two
systems, Hong Kong and main land China. However these systems in Korean
Peninsula can not be as successful as in China, since the area and the
population of Hong Kong are insignificant when compared with those of main
land China. Moreover the society of main land China except its political system
has been relatively open while that of North Korea unimaginably closed. Being
aware of these facts and after occupation of South Korea inevitable need for
slaughtering of millions of people in the South to suppress turmoil and make
people in the South obedient to his ruling, Kim Jong-Il could not but hesitate
to attack and occupy the South.

North Korea's strategic weapons and infiltration underground tunnels and their
usefulness for unifying Korean Peninsula

Development and production expenses for three North Korea's major weapons
of ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads including underground tunnels to
surmount US forces and achieve the unification of Korean Peninsula have
inflicted irrecoverable damage on North Korea's economy, starving millions of
people to death. However, the effectiveness of these weapons should not be
disregarded. It may play a decisive role in the next Korean war.

Infiltration Underground tunnels:

As mentioned earlier, the tactics utilizing infiltration underground tunnels might
be contrived by Kim Il-Song. With this tactics he might have thought that
capturing and disarming of the South Korean and US armed forces in the next
Korean war could be done without noticeable conflict or fighting. The tunnels
in Korea may not be for guerrilla warfare but for all-out war instead,
considering his unification strategy. This may be different from what many of
military analysts anticipate. Scrutinizing his military strategy and tactics for the
unification of Korean Peninsula, his ingenuity for military affairs should not be
taken lightly. Of course, digging tunnels is not only time-consuming but also
costly. Nevertheless, once exposed, immobile tunnels are very vulnerable.
Therefore, the cover-up of infiltration tunnels until necessary is indispensable
requirement of the strategy and it is highly tricky. North Korean underground
workers are well aware of this vulnerability and have devised a number of
counter-measures against the skill detecting tunnels. This is why US forces
in Korea have not been able to find any infiltration tunnels, and they are
not aware of even the ones passing right under their military posts. With these
counter-measures and the help of espionage, the North Korean infiltration
tunnels have been well protected until now.

It is estimated by US military intelligence in South Korea that there are more
than 22 unconfirmed infiltration tunnels and piles of debris probably from these
tunnels. Civilian reporters with the help of dowsing claim that more than 20
North Korean infiltration underground tunnels are located and reached far
south of Seoul. They have shown as evidences straw, thread, a bunch of
aluminum foil, and grout collected inside hard rock some 40m deep under the
ground near Imjin river and audio tapes recorded in various places deep
(30-100m) under the ground for coming and going of underground trains,
human utterance, and other sounds probably from operating machines and
drilling rocks. During my tenure in the Ministry of National Defense(MND) as
a science and technology assistant for the minister in 1992, I was reported by
a civilian through Joint Military Police in MND that he had many evidences for
North Korean infiltration underground tunnels. Upon being reported, I started to
intensively investigate all the evidence he had shown to me and once was
guided to the spot at one night in Haengjoo Sansong near Seoul where I could
hear the live sound probably of machine operation through earphone directly
connected to the microphone placed approx. 20m deep under the earth. With
the above evidence and 4 infiltration tunnels already found near the militarized
zone, the argument that North Korean infiltration tunnels have reached far
south can be confirmed.

Through various intelligence reports such as North Korean defectors'
statements, and writings of 6.25 Korean War history, estimation could be made
that digging infiltration tunnels in the North started in late 1950s and at the
beginning digging might be done with dynamite and drill, and later probably in
early 1970s with tunnel boring machine(TBM). Digging distance of tunnel of 3m
in diameter with dynamite and drill can be presumed at least some 20m per
24hrs a day according to North Korean defectors' testimony through their
experience and the boring capability of TBM in same size, 30m in average.
With the said capabilities presumption could be made that as of now North
Korean tunnels may have reached to the southernmost part of South Korea.
Assuming 20 infiltration tunnels reached far south with 20 exits per each axis
the total number of exits are 400. At the outbreak of next Korean war 200,000
North Korean infantrymen including special forces can come out of these 400
exits within less than an hour after midnight while our friendly forces are
sound asleep, and there would be no way for South Korean and US forces to
resist but to be disarmed immediately by them. We can perceive that North
Korean Kim Jong-Il foresees this situation, by analyzing his occasional uttering
that "if a war breaks out in Korea, none of the Americans will be able to get
out of South Korea" and "On the morning of one day you will have to see
Korean Peninsula is unified".
.
Nuclear warheads and Ballistic Missiles:

Why has North Korea wanted to develop and possess nuclear warheads, even
enduring enormous economic difficulties and international blame? Is it really
necessary to bomb on South Korean soil in waging war and physically
occupying the South? The answer may be "no". The most exact answer may be
to deter additional US military intervention during war. One of the North
Korea's worst fear in invading the South is probably not the US forces in
Korea but their intervention with additional troops from abroad through
disembarkation using aircraft carriers. However, these aircraft carriers will be
sailing or floating on the sea with poor agility and high vulnerability. They may
be good targets of ballistic missiles whose approaching velocities are Mach
10-20 and their circular error probables(CEP) unavoidable can be covered by
the wide lethal area of nuclear warheads. Therefore, Kim Jong-Il can menace
the USA with nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles of Nodong-1 class or
higher to hit US aircraft carriers near Korea and/or military posts in Japan and
to give up further military intervention in Korean Peninsula after North Korea's
occupation of the South. It might be true that North Korea has little potential
or capability of locating the exact positions of US battle ships and aircraft
carriers. Nonetheless, since the USA regards human lives most highly, it is
probable that instead of military intervention, with the supposition of losing
massive US forces in the event of continuing war the USA would seek peace
talks with the North, renouncing the South as was in South Vietnam. Then, the
next question is whether the North really has nuclear warheads and if so, how
many it has by this time.

While I was serving in MND, US authorities from State Department visited
MND twice, 1989 and 1990. They presented reports concerning North Korea's
development of nuclear weapon, informing that North Korea's production
capability of plutonium in weapon's grade was predicted approximately 7kg
per year with 11kg in hand as of 1989 and craters of a size equivalent to
those made by the explosion of some 10kg of TNT equivalent were found,
scattered over the area near Yongbyon. And in answering questions from
audience they estimated that it would take at least more than 5 years before
North Korea had an usable nuclear warhead, saying the reason was that the
design of detonation system for core might cause the delay since no body
would have informed North Koreans the design theory and its mechanism. At
the same time similar analysis was given to MND from the intelligence
department in Combined Forces Command(CFC). However, their prediction was
not in accordance with the information that I had at that time. The information
I had was that Dr. Kyong won-ha, a South Korean immigrant to Canada,
finished his graduate work in McGill University and defected to North Korea in
1980. The subject of his doctorate thesis was about "spherical detonation",
which is the basic theory for implosion system of nuclear core and his thesis
adviser was known as an expert in that field. With this knowledge, he might
not have much difficulty in designing an implosion mechanism for nuclear
warhead and North Korea might have developed nuclear weapons within 5
years since Dr. Kyong's defection if the only difficulty they had was the
detonation system. Furthermore, it is not plausible that some 10kg of TNT
equivalent test which must be a part of implosion system was done without
the complete design of implosion mechanism.

Assuming that what the US authorities during their visit to MND said is
correct, North Korea might have, by this time, at least 80kg of plutonium in
weapon's grade. With this amount of the plutonium North Korea might have, as
of now, some 10-20 nuclear warheads of 20kt class depending on its
technology. If it has high explosive of RDX class, it might have some 10. If it
has high explosive of HMX class, it might have some 20.

As for the ballistic missiles, it has been well known that North Korea has
Nodong-1 under production and Daepodong-1 & 2 under development.
However it was very curious to me how North Korean engineers got the
hypersonic wind tunnel test data which are indispensable to design external
configuration of ballistic missiles. While I was working in Daewoo Heavy
Industries, Ltd., I had a chance to visit TsAGI near Moscow, a comparable
agency to NASA in the USA and met the deputy director there. During
conversation with him about hypersonic wind tunnel, he told me "One of your
neighboring countries is our good customer for hypersonic wind tunnel". From
what he said I realized North Korea might have obtained some help from
Russia in aerodynamic field for the development of ballistic missiles.

Outlook for the North Korea's unification strategy:

To surmount the intervention of the USA in the next Korean war, North
Korea has invested enormous national resources for the development and
production of ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads. It has also finished
underground tunnels reaching not only deep in the south but also to the most
of Korean and US military post. Kim Jong-Il, with all the measures in hand
necessary to occupy the South proposes an unification regime of one state,
two systems under a federal government. However, as indicated earlier his
proposal is irrational and impracticable in Korean Peninsula and nothing but a
trick like a serpent under flower.

Since in recent years North Korea is undergoing extreme difficulties in
economy and international affairs for its mass destruction weapons and
diplomatic distrust on Kim Jong-Il, the options for him to survive can not help
being summarized as following.

One option is to adapt himself to prevailing international society. To have this
option be successful he has to accept and follow the international rules and
loosen much of the coercive domestic restraints to allow its national economy
to grow. However he is well aware that this might lead his regime to its grave.
If not, North Korea's international, political, economical, and even military
circumstances will be getting worse, pushing him into swamp and eventually
falling in an evil doom like Tchausesk in Romania.

The third option, which Kim Jong-Il might prefer, is to invade and occupy
South Korea by utilizing the infiltration tunnels, disarming and capturing Korean
and US armed forces within several hours. And if this option be realized
successfully, after occupation of South Korea an announcement can be made
for the proclamation of unification of Korean Peninsula, agreeing with South
Korea's president Kim Dae-Joong to set up a regime of one state, two systems
under a federation. And then claiming that since unification is agreed with the
South it purely is a domestic issue, he can threaten the USA that further
military intervention of US forces in Korean Peninsula is illegitimate in
international rule and could only result in losing lives of US forces in custody
in Korea. Under these circumstances we could hardly see any appropriate
counter-measure the USA can respond with except seeking peace talks to save
the lives of US forces and civilians in Korea. Kim Jong-Il might be dreaming
that if this option is materialized, he could be a Ho Jimin of Vietnam in Korea.

To be relieved from this probable peril and catastrophe in Korea, finding and
neutralizing North Korean infiltration tunnels in South Korea should be the
most imminent national project. Two options are foreseeable to realize this and
to prevent Kim Jong-Il's dream from being materialized in Korea.

One is to widen the current band width of 4km of DMZ to at least 10km or more
with mutual inspection to impede North Korea's surprise attack by
utilizing infiltration tunnels. And this requirement has to be met before any
humanitarian aid is provided to North Korea. The other is to occupy the
entrances of the tunnels by preemptive strikes and retreat after demolishing
them.

With the heretofore said capabilities, shall Kim Jong-Il's option be Ho Jimin or
Tchausesk?

Thank you.

October 15, 2002 Yo Kil Yoon