The American presidential election 2004 is a hot issue throughout the world.
Not only Americans but also people all around the world pay attention to the
election. The presidential election of America was always a global hot issue,
but especially this election is the hottest of all American presidential
elections ever. Why is the hottest? The election in 1960 between Kennedy and
Nixon was hot. At that time, Kennedy was young, about 40 years old, and he was
very passionate. Nixon, on the other hand, was old, and he graduated very good
university. Many people predicted that Nixon would easily win that election.
However, the result was Kennedy. Although that election was hot, it cannot be
hotter than this election. The reason is that the world is in danger, and
American soldiers are killed everyday in Iraq. The one who waged this war is
the 34th president of United States of America. His name is George Bush. His
counterpart is the senator John Kerry. Many people in the world may wish that
Bush should lose the election, but I do not think that so. I think that Bush
will be re-elected.
Let's see last year's election. (See the map1) Gore won the popular
vote, but he lost the electoral college vote. The problem was in Florida.
Florida has 27 electoral college votes. Florida was the last state to open the
ballot. As you see in the movie 'Fahrenheit 9/11' the majority of major TV
networks announced that Al Gore took the 27 electoral college votes, so Al
Gore was elected. So, Al Gore was celebrating his victory in Florida,
shouting 'Thank you Florida!'. However, starting from FOX network, major TV
networks corrected the result in Florida, and reannounced the 34th president
of America, George Bush.
That's the start of dark age of America. 8 years of Clinton's effort
to revive America's economy became useless. Bush ruined economic situation of
America. Moreover, in 2001, the 9/11 occurred, and Bush declared war on
terror, including Iraq, and Afghanistan. That war made a lot of casualties.
Everyday, more than one American soldiers are killed in Iraq. Of course,
American citizens think that this war on terror is going wrong way. In spite
of public opinion, Bush pushes a war on terror still now.
Because of his policies, many citizens of America become to dislike
Bush. Time passes, the year of election came, and the candidate of Democrats
became a hot issue. There were about 7 candidates who ran for Democratic
presidential candidate. I will not mention all 7 candidates, but Howard Dean,
John Edwards, and John Kerry were 3 possible candidate of Democratic party.
The primary began, and John Kerry was nominated as a presidential candidate of
Democratic party. He chose John Edwards as a candidate of vice president. This
is how Kerry and Bush became to compete.
Why I think that Bush will win this election? There are three reasons.
I. Not so many independent voters
II. Political Geography
III. Kerry is dependent on Bush
I. Not so many independent voters.
In 2000 election, there were many independent voters. They thought that their
vote was worthless, so they didn't vote. That had an effect on the result of
election. If Al gore got at least 200 votes, he would be the president of
America. This time, voters are concerned about their president, because they
do not just look on Bush. According to poll done by CBS. Question 1,2,3,4. The
poll result means that many citizens of America are more concerned with this
election than they had any other past elections. Moreover, majorities of
Americans are decided who to vote. Bush will definitely get votes from
Republicans, and Kerry will get votes from Democrats. There are a small number
of votes that they will get from independent voters. It will help Bush,
because he get fairly good response from American people. Q. 11, 16-20. 24
They think that national economy is getting slightly better. It will support
Bush. Also, people think that Bush's response to terrorism it good. It shows
that he is confident. Consequently, Kerry will be wish-washy comparing to
Bush. It will get votes from Kerry.
II. Political Geography
See the maps. 1) Election 2000
2) Presidential race 2004 -> Geographically
3) " -> Politically
See? Red portion is larger than Blue portion. That means Bush is leading this
election. Especially, middle part of America all goes to Bush. Why? They do
not see international news often, and they are somewhat conservatives. See the
west and East part. They are mostly blue. They are liberal. Key points are
swinging states shown as a orange-colored part. Florida decided election 2000.
Although colored red, Ohio, I think, is the most important area. One who gets
votes of Ohio, he will likely to win the election. So, President Bush has
already made 26 trips, and Senetor John Kerry has visited 18 times. Ohio will
act as a key to the president for two candidates. Tennessee and Virginia
always goes for Republicans(Mr Johnson!!!). Democrats should should should!!!!
get votes from North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida. In addition, North and
South Carolina is hometown of John Edwards. Also, John Edwards is favorable to
Hispanics, who mostly live in Southern part of U.S. Go! South! It should be a
slogan for Democrats. If Democrats seize N.C, S.C FLA, the result is like
this. {(4) Scenario}
Then, Democrats will get superiority in election 2004.
III. Kerry is dependent on Bush
Q. 8,9 See 'Would you describe your support for John Kerry as strongly favoring
him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because
you dislike the other candidates?'
DISLIKE!!!!! 25%. That means that this election will be Bush or No Bush
although this election must be Bush or Kerry. It is a problem because poll
result means that people do not know Kerry well. We can see how two candidates
respond to Gay marriage, Bush firmly says that it is not acceptable. In
contrast, Kerry says that it is a matter of state government, not matter of
president. It seems that Bush is more decisive. People likely give votes to
more decisive and believable candidate, so the candidate is likely to be BUSH.
The situation goes for Bush, for those reasons. However, there is a
hope that Kerry will win. The Debate. (Q.5) Before the debate, 41 Kerry, 49
Bush. After the debate, each has same percentage 47%. If Kerry shows how he is
powerful and confidential what he will do for America, independent voters
will vote for Kerry.
It is end of my prediction 2004 election. I hope that Kerry will win.
Works cited
1. James Moore. Bush's Brain : How Karl Rove Made George W. Bush Presidential.
John Wiley & Sons 2003
2. Linda Granfield. America Votes: How Our President Is Elected
Kids Can Press 2003
3. Washington Post. News on 2004 Election
(www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/elections/2004)
4. CNN.com: America Votes 2004
(www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004 )
5. Adam Nagourney.'Moral Values' Carried Bush, Rove Says. New York Times.
November 10 2004
6. Marjorie Connelly. How Americans Voted: A Political Portrait. New York Times.
November 7, 2004
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