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There are three stages of development in demography. First, the country experiences high birth and death rate, and population are stabilized; second, as countries modernize, death rates will lower but birth rates will still remain high, resulting in population growth; finally, death rates and birth rates will become low and the population growth would stabilize (Brown, Gardner, Halweil, p.112). Whether developing countries can make stage three or not makes a big difference. If some governments do not reform to better education, provide basic services, allow women to vote, etc., the country will be pumped back to stage one as diseases, scarcity and unrest occurs. Economic optimists focuses on reforming economic institutions, and often, social institutions are overlooked. Recently, the Ontario Municipal Board or OMB had ruled out the Rouge Park protection plan that was devised to save wetlands in a proposed 5000-unit subdivision beside the Oak Ridges Moraine (Swainson, �Rouge�). As a consequence, �salmon spawning grounds and wildlife corridors linking the moraine and Rouge Park- one of the world�s largest urban parks- are at grave risk.� (Swainson, �Rouge�). Perhaps the most aggravating fact is that the OMB is partly composed of developers who are self-interested (Rehill). Such an example substantiate the need to reform some government institutions as soon as possible. The world is at risk with many negative effects of population growth and resource consumption, which alleviate its importance. For example, from 1950 until now, carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning increased four times; as a result, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increased by 30% and since 1979, we have experienced 15 of the warmest years in the known history of mankind (Brown, Gardner, Halweil. p.73). Furthermore, we are living in a time where species loss is 100 to 1000 times the natural rate due to habitat alternation, invasions by exotic species, pollution and over hunting (Brown, Gardner, Halweil, p.41). Subsequently, half of the world�s known species may disappear in the next 50 years. Neoclassical economists argue that developing the economy is more significant than preserving the environment for future generations, as they could supply ingenuity with the capital they have to solve societies� problems. (Wolfgram, �Population�) In the late 1970�s, Hong Kong was focussing on economic development and very much disregarded environmental issues (Leung). It was not until the late 80�s that they realize there is a need to establish a department to administer environmental issues. However, it was too late. Beautiful scenes and endangered species in the New Territory had been destroyed forever, and its effects on Hong Kong still ripple (Leung). Even in the climax economic success Hong Kong reached in the 90�s, it was impossible, with whatever ingenuity and capital available to correct the situation. As a former resident, it is truly disappointing.
Scarcity in food, water, sanitation, minerals and other resources will be an acute challenge and must be dealt with the most ingenuity supply available. To do so, it is imperative that population should be controlled through means like family planning, education and other policies. Institutions should be reformed in many cases to deal with ominous issues to come. Dealing with population and the environment should be a priority in any politician�s agenda; it is extremely imprudent to wait until scarcity is critical to try to preserve our environment. Looking back from the year 2100 that might be the most pitiable fallacy in history.
Bibliography
Brown, Lester R. & Gardner, Gary & Halweil, Brian. Beyond Malthus: 19 Demensions of the Population Challenge. New York, W.W. Norton & Company. 1999.
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. The Ingenuity Gap: Can We Solve the Problems of the Future?
Toronto, Vintage Canada, 2003.
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. �The Ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Societies Adapt to Resource Scarcities?"
Available http://www.library.utoronto.ca/pcs/ingen/ingen.htm
Kluger, Jeff & Dorfman, Andrea. �The Challenges We Face�. Time. p.33-73. August, 26, 2002.
Leung, Shiu-Hong. (Retired F.R.I.C.S., F.H.K.I.S.) Interview, May 03, 2003.
Malthus, Thomas. �An Essay on the Principle of Population� available
http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/malthus/malthus.1.html
Rehill, David. (Holy Trinity School Social Science Department Head). Interview, May 9, 2003.
Reynolds, Terrance. (Head of Holy Trinity Senior School, Former "Department Head of Social Sciences" and Former "Director of Senior School") Interview, April 14, 2003.
Swainson, Gail. �Rouge Park Plan Rejected� The Toronto Star. Thurs, March 13, 2003. B03
Wolfgram, Ann. �Population, Resources & Environment� available http://arts- sciences.cua.edu/econ/faculty/aguirre/resenv.htm
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