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New Delhi: Politics won't change in Kerala.
Political forces are realigning and new combinations are
taking place elsewhere for the coming Lok Sabha
elections, but in Kerala the situation remains the same.
As usual, politics in the state revolves around two
fronts: the Marxist-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and
the Congress(I)-led ruling United Democratic Front (UDF).
As yet, no change is visible in the political
combinations in the state, which has been under the grip
of coalition politics since 1957.
| Preferred Chief Minister
|
| 36% |
25% |
7% |
Achuthanandan
(CPI - M) |
Oommen
Chandy
(Congress) |
A.K
Antony
(Congress) |
| |
|
|
| 3% |
3% |
2% |
K.
Karunakaran
(DIC)
|
Pinarayi
Vijayan
(CPI-M)
|
Paloli
Mohammed
(CPI-M) |
Anti-incumbency will play a major role in the coming
Assembly polls for the ruling UDF. In the 2004
Parliamentary elections, the coalition failed to win even
a single Lok Sabha seat. In the 2006 Assembly elections,
the situation will be no better. According to a
CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey, the UDF will be voted out
of power.
| Sample reflects the
image of Kerala’s population |
| |
Census
(In %) |
Survey
(In %) |
| Women |
51 |
51 |
| Rural |
74 |
87 |
| Hindu |
56 |
62 |
| Muslims |
25 |
19 |
| Christians |
19 |
18 |
| S.C |
10 |
10 |
| S.T |
1 |
2 |
| Seats Estimate (Total
Seats in Kerala 140) |
| LDF |
93-103 |
| UDF |
39-45 |
| Others |
0-2 |
| Votes Projected |
| LDF |
49 |
| UDF |
43 |
| Others |
4 |
| Swing from 2001 |
| LDF |
+6 |
| UDF |
- 6 |
| Others |
0 |
| Who is more popular
among the LDF leaders? |
| V.S Achuthanandan |
57% |
| Pinarayi
Vijayan |
9% |
| Paloli
Mohammed Kutty |
8% |
| Rest No opinion |
| Who is more popular
among the UDF leaders? |
| Oommen Chandy |
41% |
| A.K
Antony |
23% |
| K.
Karunakaran |
15% |
| Rest No opinion |
| Which govt. was better? |
| Present UDF |
35% |
| Previous
LDF |
37% |
| Rest No opinion |
| Should present UDF
Govt. Get another chance? |
| Yes |
43% |
| No |
46% |
| Rest No opinion |
| Where does the LDF
establish the lead? |
| Communities |
Vote for LDF |
Gains |
| Nairs and other upper
castes |
48 |
+ 14 |
| Ezhavas |
68 |
+ 5 |
| Other
OBCs |
63 |
+ 9 |
| SC’s
|
28 |
+ 5 |
| Figures compared from
votes among these communities during the 2001
assembly elections |
| Where UDF still enjoys
the lead? |
| Communities |
UDF |
LDF |
| Muslims |
61 |
36 |
| Christians |
66 |
27 |
| All figures are in
percent |
|
|