If you have questions, comments or suggestions, send e-mail to Ken Matinale at [email protected]
Bill James's book, Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame: Baseball, Cooperstown, and the Politics of Glory, covers most of the bases on the Hall of Fame including his opinion on who should be in and who should not. I recommend it highly. In Chapter 14, Hall of Fame Standards, he uses 10 lifetime categories to produce a number that represents achievement.
This article uses a simple common sense method to evaluate players and provides an alternative guideline. I will recommend both deductions and inductions to the Hall of Fame. The article covers National and American League seasons 1901 through 1995.
I will try to establish a Mendoza line per position by suggesting a bottom level threshold. My method is simply based on the big four stats: Batting Average (BA), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI) and Runs for batters; Wins, Earned Run Average (ERA), Winning Percentage (Pct) and Strikeouts (SO) for pitchers. These are the key stats both in terms of importance and tradition.
A further distinction is that the Bill James Hall of Fame Standards are based on lifetime totals whereas my method is based on top five finishes in the four categories per season. Using data per season accomplishes two things: 1) recognizes that players who had enough big seasons can be Hall of Famers even if they had short careers and 2) it smooths out the numeric differences between eras. It also reduces the risk of rewarding a player for hanging around and producing lifetime numbers that suggest more productivity than is warranted.
Let's face it, if Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays with their batting stats had played the rest of the game, defense and base running, like Harmon Killebrew or Ralph Kiner they would still have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Why? Because batters who play the big bopper positions, outfield and first base, are elected for their offense, not their defense. To a lesser extent pitchers are elected for wins. It's interesting that people who are concerned about a batter's defense and base running are seldom concerned about a pitcher's defense and batting. I can't even remember whether Koufax could field. I do remember that he couldn't hit.
By looking at the top five finishes per season in the four traditional categories we can quickly see who were the dominant players of their respective eras and avoid the confusion that has long plagued selection especially that caused by the enthusiasm for BA. How does one compare a .300 BA in the National League in 1930 when the entire league batted .303 to Carl Yastremzski's .301 which led the American League in 1968? Look at the league leaders and don't worry about actual numbers.
Let me emphasize again that this method is an interesting and enlightening guideline but it is not an absolute standard. We cannot overlook 50 HR or a .900 winning percentage in a season. Nor can we ignore 500 HR, 3,000 hits or 300 wins, the three traditional automatic lifetime qualifiers. When a player is on the bubble we will look at these and other common sense factors (MVP and Cy Young awards, records, contributing to winning teams) on an ad hoc basis.
Here is the method. Counts were made of the number of top five finishes. This is really an expanded version of the black ink test, i.e., looking for league leaders. I found that the counts while interesting in and of themselves left something out. They resulted in many ties in individual categories and they did not give enough credit for higher finishes. Therefore I used a simple point system: 5 for first, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth and 1 for fifth. I considered assigning more points for first but decided that this more conservative approach would be easier to understand and accept. The points are shown in each category and are totaled for each player in the tables below. If space permitted I would submit tables in their entirety. In some cases parts of tables are shown but they are clearly marked as such.
As a point of interest I also used a point system for Most Valuable Player (MVP) finishes and for Cy Young finishes. This applies to the MVP system used since 1931 and is mostly useful for players, both batters and pitchers, whose careers started after 1930. It also applies to the Cy Young award instituted in 1956. My awards point system is: 10 for first, 7 for second, 5 for third, 3 for fourth and 1 for fifth. It seemed obvious to me that it was much more important to win than merely be a top finisher. Neither my MVP points nor my Cy Young points are part of the player's total. They serve more for ad hoc analysis and general interest.
Here are definitions for the remaining fields in the tables. Position (POS) shows the player's main position first and a second position only if a significant number of games were played there. Inducted is the year of Hall of Fame induction. Start contains the player's first year in the majors. End contains the player's final year; it is 1995 for player's active through that season.
Big Boppers (outfield and first base):
Here are the all time big boppers regardless of position or Hall of Fame status.
| Ruth | Babe | 27 | 74 | 53 | 49 | 203 | 1 | 1936 | OF | 1914 | 1935 |
| Cobb | Ty | 70 | 23 | 32 | 46 | 171 | 1936 | OF | 1905 | 1928 | |
| Williams | Ted | 52 | 42 | 34 | 41 | 169 | 59 | 1966 | OF | 1939 | 1960 |
| Gehrig | Lou | 29 | 43 | 48 | 45 | 165 | 32 | 1939 | 1B | 1923 | 1939 |
| Hornsby | Rogers | 52 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 148 | 1942 | 2B | 1915 | 1937 | |
| Aaron | Hank | 27 | 47 | 34 | 37 | 145 | 41 | 1982 | OF | 1954 | 1976 |
| Musial | Stan | 63 | 11 | 24 | 44 | 142 | 62 | 1969 | OF-1B | 1941 | 1963 |
| Mays | Willie | 24 | 37 | 24 | 43 | 128 | 51 | 1979 | OF | 1951 | 1973 |
| Wagner | Honus | 46 | 8 | 41 | 26 | 121 | 1936 | SS | 1897 | 1917 | |
| Schmidt | Mike | 2 | 52 | 36 | 31 | 121 | 40 | 1995 | 3B | 1972 | 1989 |
| Ott | Mel | 63 | 30 | 28 | 121 | 9 | 1951 | OF | 1926 | 1947 | |
| Foxx | Jimmie | 23 | 44 | 28 | 21 | 116 | 37 | 1951 | 1B | 1925 | 1945 |
| Mantle | Mickey | 19 | 35 | 11 | 41 | 106 | 58 | 1974 | OF | 1951 | 1968 |
| Crawford | Sam | 22 | 27 | 42 | 13 | 104 | 1957 | OF | 1899 | 1917 | |
| Robinson | Frank | 18 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 103 | 36 | 1982 | OF | 1956 | 1976 |
| Mize | Johnny | 21 | 34 | 29 | 16 | 100 | 20 | 1981 | 1B | 1936 | 1953 |
| Speaker | Tris | 40 | 17 | 11 | 25 | 93 | 1937 | OF | 1907 | 1928 | |
| Killebrew | Harmon | 1 | 46 | 34 | 9 | 90 | 33 | 1984 | 1B-3B | 1954 | 1975 |
| DiMaggio | Joe | 16 | 25 | 32 | 16 | 89 | 49 | 1955 | OF | 1936 | 1951 |
| Klein | Chuck | 14 | 28 | 22 | 19 | 83 | 24 | 1980 | OF | 1928 | 1944 |
| Medwick | Joe | 26 | 9 | 29 | 17 | 81 | 14 | 1968 | OF | 1932 | 1948 |
| Simmons | Al | 27 | 15 | 23 | 13 | 78 | 5 | 1953 | OF | 1924 | 1944 |
| Kiner | Ralph | 2 | 36 | 21 | 14 | 73 | 4 | 1975 | OF | 1946 | 1955 |
| Greenberg | Hank | 1 | 28 | 29 | 14 | 72 | 30 | 1956 | 1B | 1930 | 1947 |
| Rose | Pete | 26 | 44 | 70 | 24 | OF-1B | 1963 | 1986 | |||
| Yastrzemski | Carl | 23 | 10 | 9 | 25 | 67 | 13 | 1989 | OF | 1961 | 1983 |
| Lajoie | Nap | 28 | 7 | 21 | 11 | 67 | 1937 | 2B | 1896 | 1916 | |
| Rice | Jim | 8 | 21 | 24 | 11 | 64 | 27 | OF | 1974 | 1989 | |
| Jackson | Reggie | 39 | 10 | 15 | 64 | 22 | 1993 | OF | 1967 | 1987 | |
| Carew | Rod | 47 | 16 | 63 | 10 | 1991 | 1B-2B | 1967 | 1985 |
Well this looks like a pretty reliable method. I consider all the batters listed above as legitimate Hall of Famers and the top dozen or so as the cream of the crop. I had to go all the way past number thirty, Rod Carew, before I hit consecutive players (Gavvy Cravath and Dale Murphy tied at 62) who are not in the Hall. Aside from Pete Rose who would be in the Hall of Fame based solely on his batting record, the only non-Hall of Famer is Jim Rice. While Rice's numbers, as were Ted Williams's, are inflated by his having played his home games in Fenway Park Boston, a notorious hitter's park, Rice's high finish and an MVP indicate to me that he should be inducted .
Babe Ruth is at the top and by plenty. The Babe is the one and only. No matter how you slice it or dice it the Babe is clearly the best hitter of all time. When I hear somebody try to sound knowledgeable by stating that Ted Williams or anyone other than the Babe is the best hitter I can only assume that they are going by some warm fuzzies and not looking at these or any other numbers.
Except for Nap Lajoie (2B) tied at 26th place, the only infielders other than first base in this group are Rogers Hornby (2B), Honus Wagner (SS) and Mike Schmidt (3B) each of whom has at least twice as many points as the next player at their respective positions. In other words Hornsby, Wagner and Schmidt dominate their positions with Wagner and Schmidt being great fielders as well.
Bill James alludes to a natural selection process that may affect baseball whereby players over time improve across the board making it increasingly difficult for individuals to dominate. This list has pretty even distribution across eras except for the 1970s and 1980s. This makes Mike Schmidt's showing all the more impressive.
I have long thought that Frank Robinson's greatness has been underestimated. The list seems to confirm his place among the top echelon. Hank Aaron actually looks even better than expected. His high numbers in each category confirm his all around greatness and his number in HR shows that he was consistently among the league leaders for many seasons, not merely hitting moderate HR totals.
Check out Lou Gehrig's MVP total. Amazing considering that he played only half his career after the MVP started. And take a look at the MVP totals for Stan Musial and Mickey Mantle. Despite the injuries Mickey Mantle is in thirteenth place; his last season with over 500 official at bats was 1961.
What the heck were they waiting for on Johnny Mize? He was not inducted until 1981 and by the Veteran's Committee. Maybe he was friends with Vern Stephens, but more on that later. Sam Crawford - who would have guessed? All eleven triiple crown (BA, HR, RBI) winners are in this list.
Here's the middle group of Hall of Famers who played big bopper positions.
| Snider | Duke | 9 | 17 | 14 | 21 | 61 | 12 | 1980 | OF | 1947 | 1964 |
| Heilmann | Harry | 26 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 58 | 1952 | OF | 1914 | 1932 | |
| Waner | Paul | 31 | 5 | 20 | 56 | 11 | 1952 | OF | 1926 | 1945 | |
| Wilson | Hack | 24 | 23 | 7 | 54 | 1979 | OF | 1923 | 1934 | ||
| Clemente | Roberto | 36 | 8 | 4 | 49 | 18 | 1973 | OF | 1955 | 1972 | |
| Williams | Billy | 9 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 14 | 1987 | OF | 1959 | 1976 |
| Kaline | Al | 24 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 20 | 1980 | OF | 1953 | 1974 |
If it were up to me and we were starting from scratch, I'm not sure I'd induct this group. Their MVP points are low. Paul Waner and Clemente played mostly in Pittsbhurg's Forbes Field but the rest played in hitter's parks: Snider - Ebbets Field, Heilman and Kaline - Tiger Stadium, Wilson and Billy Williams in Wrigley Field. Hack Wilson has additional credentials: 1930 season - 56 HR, National League record, and 190 RBI, major league record. But in 1930 National League teams averaged a wopping 5.68 runs per game. Kaline and Clemente each had 3,000 hits. Clemente was MVP. Snider, Billy Williams and Kaline were well protected in the lineup. Snider especially benefited from his being a lefty surrounded powerful righthanders. Snider played in six World Series, winning two, in which he hit 11 HR, twice hitting four in separate World Series. Clemente put on a memorable show in the 1971 World Series but I never considered Clemente in the same league as Aaron, Frank Robinson or even Yastremzski; not enough power, not dominant enough. It seems to me that our Mendoza line for post 1945 boppers is Billy Williams, a left fielder who only saw the World Series on TV, with no lifetime marks, no MVP, no records. Snider played center. Kaline and Clemente were great right fielders.
Another post 1945 big bopper Hall of Famer who belongs in the middle echelon is Willie McCovey.
| McCovey | Willie | 1 | 26 | 12 | 1 | 40 | 15 | 1986 | 1B | 1959 | 1980 |
McCovey hit 521 HR (tied with Ted Williams for tenth) and won
an MVP. Easy selection for the Hall of Fame.
Here are the deduction candidates from the big bopper postions.
| Roush | Edd | 21 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 31 | 1962 | OF | 1913 | 1931 | |
| Slaughter | Enos | 10 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 17 | 1985 | OF | 1938 | 1959 |
| Wheat | Zack | 17 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 30 | 1959 | OF | 1909 | 1927 | |
| Stargell | Willie | 13 | 13 | 3 | 29 | 29 | 1988 | OF | 1962 | 1982 | |
| Goslin | Goose | 6 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 29 | 1968 | OF | 1921 | 1938 | |
| Manush | Heinie | 22 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 10 | 1964 | OF | 1923 | 1939 | |
| Flick | Elmer | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 1963 | OF | 1898 | 1910 | ||
| Cuyler | Kiki | 7 | 3 | 15 | 25 | 1968 | OF | 1921 | 1938 | ||
| Keeler | Willie | 13 | 12 | 25 | 1939 | OF | 1892 | 1910 | |||
| Carey | Max | 25 | 25 | 1961 | OF | 1910 | 1929 | ||||
| Ashburn | Richie | 18 | 4 | 22 | 1995 | OF | 1948 | 1962 | |||
| Clarke | Fred | 5 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 1945 | OF | 1894 | 1915 | ||
| Youngs | Ross | 10 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 1972 | OF | 1917 | 1926 | ||
| Averill | Earl | 4 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 11 | 1975 | OF | 1929 | 1941 |
| Brock | Lou | 19 | 19 | 7 | 1985 | OF | 1961 | 1979 | |||
| Combs | Earle | 17 | 17 | 1970 | OF | 1924 | 1935 | ||||
| Delahanty | Ed | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 1945 | OF | 1888 | 1903 | |
| Burkett | Jesse | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1946 | OF | 1890 | 1905 | ||
| Waner | Lloyd | 3 | 9 | 12 | 1967 | OF | 1927 | 1945 | |||
| Hafey | Chick | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1971 | OF | 1924 | 1937 | |
| Hooper | Harry | 6 | 6 | 1971 | OF | 1909 | 1925 | ||||
| Irvin | Monte | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1973 | OF | 1949 | 1956 | ||
| Rice | Sam | 2 | 2 | 1963 | OF | 1915 | 1934 |
Several of these players get a bye because they played a number of seasons before 1901 and their earlier seasons are not included: Keeler, Delahanty, Burkett. Others have additional credentials. Willie Stargell played on two World Series champions, was MVP, hit 48 HR, and has a surprisingly high MVP total considering his low rating. Lou Brock played on two World Series champions and set the season and lifetime stolen base records which have since been broken by Ricky Henderson; Brock had 3,000 hits; still, it's surprising that he finished so low. Monte Irvin was excluded by the color barrier. I would place these players in the middle group above.
Deduct the others: Roush, Slaughter, Wheat, Goslin, Manush, Flick, Cuyler, Carey, Ashburn, Clarke, Youngs, Averall, Combs, Lloyd Waner, Hafey, Hooper and Sam Rice. Ashburn had a lot of sentimental support because he played the game so well but his numbers are more in line with a second baseman's. Ashburn is the only player in this group who could have earned MVP points but was shutout.
Here are the top twenty batters not in the Hall of Fame regardless of position.
| Rose | Pete | 26 | 44 | 70 | 24 | OF-1B | 1963 | 1986 | |||
| Rice | Jim | 8 | 21 | 24 | 11 | 64 | 27 | OF | 1974 | 1989 | |
| Cravath | Gavvy | 4 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 62 | OF | 1908 | 1920 | ||
| Murphy | Dale | 27 | 18 | 17 | 62 | 20 | OF | 1976 | 1993 | ||
| Magee | Sherry | 10 | 9 | 28 | 10 | 57 | OF | 1904 | 1919 | ||
| Stephens | Vern | 20 | 24 | 10 | 54 | 11 | SS | 1941 | 1955 | ||
| Boggs | Wade | 39 | 14 | 53 | 3 | 3B | 1982 | 1995 | |||
| Williams | Cy | 1 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 50 | OF | 1912 | 1930 | ||
| Gwynn | Tony | 43 | 7 | 50 | 5 | OF | 1982 | 1995 | |||
| Henderson | Rickey | 8 | 39 | 47 | 22 | OF | 1979 | 1995 | |||
| Bonds | Barry | 2 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 47 | 40 | OF | 1986 | 1995 | |
| Jackson | Joe | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 46 | OF | 1908 | 1920 | ||
| Colavito | Rocky | 17 | 22 | 7 | 46 | 9 | OF | 1955 | 1968 | ||
| Oliva | Tony | 27 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 17 | OF | 1962 | 1976 | ||
| Parker | Dave | 11 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 44 | 28 | OF | 1973 | 1991 | |
| Camilli | Dolph | 1 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 44 | 10 | 1B | 1933 | 1945 | |
| Allen | Dick | 6 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 13 | 1B-3B | 1963 | 1977 | |
| Foster | George | 3 | 14 | 19 | 7 | 43 | 22 | OF | 1969 | 1986 | |
| York | Rudy | 22 | 18 | 2 | 42 | 5 | OF | 1934 | 1948 | ||
| Minoso | Minnie | 13 | 9 | 20 | 42 | 12 | OF | 1949 | 1980 |
These players are only being considered because tradition has already lowered the Mendoza line to Billy Williams. Otherwise, I'd keep the standard closer to Ruth and Cobb, Mantle and Mays, Hornsby, Wagner and Schmidt. There are some players who are specialists in a single category, usually BA or HR. BA specialists include Carew, already inducted and in the first list, third baseman Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn both of whom will be inducted. How about HR specialists from forgotton eras such as Gavvy Cravath and Cy Williams? According to Bill James, Cravath hit "almost all of his home runs" from 1913 through 1915 in the Baker Bowl in Philadelphia: 51 of 62,including possibly all 19 in 1914. Cy Williams has a similar problem - Sportsman's Park in St. Louis: 1922 - 32 HR at home, 7 on the road. No to Cravath and no to Cy Williams.
Vern Stephens could field according to Bill James. I mention this because he was a shortstop and they are elected for fielding as we shall see. He did play in hitter's parks in Boston and St. Louis. Stephens had 159 RBI in 1949. My list shows that shortstop Vern Stephens is well above the Mendoza line for boppers! Induct him.
Dale Murphy is well above the Mendoza line. He played in the launching pad in Atlanta. He and Roger Maris are the only retired players with two consecutive MVPs not in the Hall. Murphy should probably be inducted.
Rickey Henderson is the greatest leadoff batter of all time; MVP; induct him. Barry Bonds could quit now and be inducted; three MVPs in four years. Joe Jackson has a much worse problem than Pete Rose. This guy threw the 1919 World Series! No way! Rocky Colavito - interesting; don't knock the Rock; had some big power seasons. Why are people concerned about Oliva but not Colavito? Is it the BA bias even now? Tony Oliva is a little short on time but I wouldn't object to his induction. Dave Parker - MVP; one of the big crashers of the late 70s along with Rice and Foster; on two World Series champions for two different teams. Dick Allen - MVP. George Foster in 1977: MVP; 149 RBI; 52 HR, the only 50 HR total between Mays's 52 in 1965 and Cecil Fielder's 51 in 1990; Foster played on two World Series champions. I'll bet your surprised to see Minnie Minoso.
Rice should be inducted. Among the post 1945 boppers in this group could one argue that Colavito, Oliva,, Parker, Allen and Foster are at or above our Mendoza line of Billy Williams? Probably. Parker, Allen and Foster bounced around and had some negative press and any negative hurts a borderline candidate. I'm ambivalent about this group.
What about boppers often mentioned as worthy of serious consideration but not already discussed? I selected thirty outfielders and first basemen from a group of the top ranked players not in the Hall of Fame. The list includes a field called Rank which shows their position in the group mentioned.
| 29 | Dawson | Andre | 4 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 37 | 24 | OF | 1976 | 1995 | |
| 32 | Murray | Eddie | 7 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 36 | 20 | 1B | 1977 | 1995 | |
| 33 | Kingman | Dave | 29 | 7 | 36 | OF-1B | 1971 | 1986 | ||||
| 35 | Puckett | Kirby | 18 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 17 | OF | 1984 | 1995 | |
| 36 | Howard | Frank | 18 | 13 | 4 | 35 | 4 | OF | 1958 | 1973 | ||
| 39 | Mattingly | Don | 13 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 1B | 1982 | 1995 | |
| 45 | Williams | Ken | 1 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 32 | OF | 1915 | 1929 | ||
| 46 | Doby | Larry | 2 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 32 | 7 | OF | 1947 | 1959 | |
| 47 | Evans | Dwight | 9 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 8 | OF | 1972 | 1991 | ||
| 51 | Hodges | Gil | 14 | 13 | 3 | 30 | 1B | 1943 | 1963 | |||
| 52 | Kluszewski | Ted | 5 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 1B | 1947 | 1961 | |
| 54 | Maris | Roger | 10 | 10 | 9 | 29 | 20 | OF | 1957 | 1968 | ||
| 57 | Cepeda | Orlando | 4 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 28 | 17 | 1B | 1958 | 1974 | |
| 58 | Scott | George | 6 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 28 | 1B | 1966 | 1979 | ||
| 62 | Madlock | Bill | 27 | 27 | OF | 1973 | 1987 | |||||
| 63 | Winfield | Dave | 7 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 9 | OF | 1973 | 1995 | ||
| 64 | Cash | Norm | 5 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 3 | 1B | 1958 | 1974 | |
| 70 | Johnson | Bob | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 1 | OF | 1933 | 1945 | |
| 75 | Perez | Tony | 2 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 1B-3B | 1964 | 1986 | |
| 81 | Powell | Boog | 2 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 22 | 1B | 1961 | 1977 | ||
| 85 | Meusel | Bob | 9 | 14 | 23 | OF | 1920 | 1930 | ||||
| 88 | O'Doul | Lefty | 14 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 5 | OF | 1919 | 1934 | ||
| 92 | Sauer | Hank | 17 | 5 | 22 | 10 | OF | 1941 | 1959 | |||
| 94 | Baylor | Don | 7 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 10 | DH-OF | 1970 | 1988 | ||
| 96 | Oliver | Al | 14 | 7 | 21 | 5 | OF-1B | 1968 | 1985 | |||
| 97 | Runnels | Pete | 17 | 4 | 21 | 1B-2B | 1951 | 1964 | ||||
| 98 | Garvey | Steve | 6 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 1B | 1969 | 1987 | ||
| 105 | May | Lee | 8 | 12 | 20 | 1B-OF | 1965 | 1982 | ||||
Eddie Murray's longevity does it for him; he should join Aaron and Mays as only batters with 3,000 hits and 500 HR. He played on one World Series champion. Murray is the only player in this group whom I recommend for induction. Ironically, it's in spite of my methodology.
Hey, Jose Canseco (40), Frank Thomas (39) and Albert Belle (37) are already ahead of Andre Dawson who has played forever. What does that tell us about Dawson? Still, he was MVP in 1987: 49 HR and 137 RBI in Wrigley Field.
Kingman, Hodges, Scott, Madlock, Runnels and Lee May could have earned MVP points but did not. That pretty much eliminates them since, except for Kingman, they are all well below the Mendoza line and the writers voting for MVP during the careers of these players didn't think they were so hot.
Kirby Puckett probably has less than most people think; the five year wait may be a good test here. Frank Howard was a HR specialist but it's diffucult to support him. Don Mattingly is another sentimental favorite who is on the bubble; MVP; set two HR records: most HR in a season - 6 and most consecutive games hitting HR - 8 tied with Dale Long and Ken Griffey, Jr.
Ken Williams was a HR specialist in a hitter's park in St. Louis and deserves consideration for that. Doby, Evans and Kluszewski have low MVP points along with their moderate batting points. Evans has inflated Fenway stats.
As we drift further from the Mendoza line we need to look for extenuating circumstances. Roger Maris holds the greatest season record of them all, 61 HR. Maris won consecutive MVPs in 1960 and 1961 when he was the best right fielder in baseball. Maris played on five consecutive pennant winners including two consecutive World Series champions for the Yankees and two consecutive pennant winners and one World Series champion for the Cardinals. However, the best argument for Maris is a bad one - if Hack Wilson is in ... It's difficult to support Maris based really on his first three years with the Yankees when he hit 133 HR. Orlando Cepeda was Maris's teammate on those two Cardinal teams and a unanimous MVP on the World Series champion but it's not enough. I'd select Maris over Cepeda.
Dave Winfield's 3,000 hits will probably save him. He benefited in the press from anti-Steinbrenner hysteria yet his MVP points, which count much more, are very low. For a guy who played twenty-two years what the heck was he doing that was so great? In his favor is that Winfield has the most HR, 465 - 19th all-time, of any non-Hall of Famer and the most RBI, 1,833 - 12th all-time, of any non-Hall of Famer except Murray who should be inducted. Winfield also has the sixth most at bats, 11,003. Murray has 400 less at bats. League Championship Series: .216 BA, 37 AB, 2 HR, 9 Runs, 5 RBI. World Series: .136 BA, 44 AB, 0 HR, 0 Runs, 4 RBI. Winfield's only clutch hit drove in the winning run for his only World Series champion, the 1992 Toronto Blue Jays. Winfield's only black ink in anything was leading the National League in RBI for the 1979 San Diego Padres. He'll make it but I'm not supporting him.
Bob Johnson keeps getting mentioned by people who supposedly know something that the rest of us don't; I can't see it. Tony Perez is another; can't see him either. Boog Powell was MVP but that's all. Lefty O'Doul had too short a career. Baylor (MVP), Oliver, Garvey: all rated the same, at about half the Mendoza line. Oliver was almost shutout on MVP.
Non-Boppers:
The importance of the other defensive positions probably rates in this order: catcher, shortstop, second base and third base. Third base is the least represented position. It's a semi-bopper position which seems to require offense first but allows for great defense. All of these positions require better than average offense for the position. Most of us think that Ozzie Smith is an automatic Hall of Famer because he revolutionized shortstop play and is probably the best defensive shortstop ever. But what if his offense was more like Roy McMillan's? And what about Roy McMillan? He played a lot of good shortstop for a long time. Even a defensive specialist at a defensive position must show enough offense to strike a balance.
Catchers:
Here are the Hall of Fame catchers.
| Bench | Johnny | 16 | 22 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 1989 | C | 1967 | 1983 | |
| Berra | Yogi | 12 | 15 | 4 | 31 | 52 | 1972 | C | 1946 | 1965 | |
| Campanella | Roy | 4 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 1969 | C | 1948 | 1957 | |
| Hartnett | Gabby | 3 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 1955 | C | 1922 | 1941 | ||
| Lombardi | Ernie | 5 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 1986 | C | 1931 | 1947 | ||
| Dickey | Bill | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1954 | C | 1928 | 1946 | ||
| Cochrane | Mickey | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1947 | C | 1925 | 1937 | |||
| Bresnahan | Roger | 2 | 2 | 1945 | C | 1897 | 1915 | ||||
| Schalk | Ray | 0 | 1955 | C | 1912 | 1929 | |||||
| Kelly | King | 0 | 1945 | C | 1878 | 1893 | |||||
| Ferrell | Rick | 0 | 1984 | C | 1929 | 1947 | |||||
| Ewing | Buck | 0 | 1946 | C | 1880 | 1897 |
Notice that they are all catchers with no significant secondary postion. Most were elected for their defense. Buck Ewing is regarded by some as the greatest catcher of all time. He and King Kelly could not accumulate points under my system since they played in the previous century. They get a bye.
Bench (2 MVP), Berra (3 MVP) and Campanella (3 MVP) really stand out. Yogi's MVP points are exactly twice Bench's. Yogi was on TEN World Series champions for the Yankees. Bench two. Campanella one. Was Yogi the greatest of them all? There's strong evidence to support this.
Points for Lombardi, Dickey and Cochrane, an MVP, are surprisingly low. They all played during the big hitting 1930s. Dickey and Cochrane are true Hall of Famers. Both could field and were team leaders. Dickey was on nine World Series champions for the Yankees, all different from Yogi. Lombardi and Cochrane had one each.
Lombardi was not a good defensive catcher and, as we can see, wasn't that great of a hitter. He should be deducted.
I'm setting a guideline for myself that no matter how great a player's defensive skills may be that player must show at least some offense. Schalk and Ferrell show none. They should be deducted.
Here are the leading post 1945 candidates at catcher.
| Torre | Joe | 11 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 11 | C-1B | 1960 | 1977 | |
| Carter | Gary | 6 | 12 | 18 | 12 | C | 1974 | 1992 | |||
| Fisk | Carlton | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | C | 1969 | 1993 | |||
| Munson | Thurman | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | C | 1969 | 1979 | |||
| Howard | Elston | 7 | 1 | 8 | 15 | C | 1955 | 1968 | |||
| Simmons | Ted | 5 | 1 | 6 | C | 1968 | 1988 | ||||
| Freehan | Bill | 1 | 1 | 12 | C | 1961 | 1976 | ||||
| McCarver | Tim | 0 | 7 | C | 1959 | 1980 | |||||
| Boone | Bob | 0 | C | 1972 | 1990 |
I would induct Fisk, Carter and Torre in that order.
Torre, Munson and Howard won the MVP. Fisk and Boone were the leading defensive catchers for two decades and played the most games as catchers. Fisk could hit with power. Boone didn't hit at all. Carter hit well and was a good receiver contributing to a World Series championship. All contributed significantly to winning teams. Torre played a lot at firstbase but his offense carries him. I'd love to induct Boone for his defense but his offense is invisible.
Munson and Howard lead Yankee teams to pennants but not for long enough. That's a tough call since their numbers are better that Dickey, Cochrane and even Lombardi who was known only for his hitting. I'd better stop thinking about this one or I'll change my mind.
Simmons requires you to stand on your head to pretend that he was a good defensive catcher and his offense is surprisingly below Munson and Howard; no way. I threw Freehan and McCarver into the equation to see how they'd do. Not well.
Semi-boppers (third base):
Here are the Hall of Fame third basemen.
| Schmidt | Mike | 2 | 52 | 36 | 31 | 121 | 40 | 1995 | 3B | 1972 | 1989 |
| Baker | Frank | 4 | 33 | 19 | 5 | 61 | 1955 | 3B | 1908 | 1922 | |
| Mathews | Eddie | 24 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 14 | 1978 | 3B | 1952 | 1968 | |
| Kell | George | 21 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 1983 | 3B | 1943 | 1957 | ||
| Robinson | Brooks | 6 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 1983 | 3B | 1955 | 1977 | ||
| Traynor | Pie | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 1948 | 3B | 1920 | 1937 | ||
| Lindstrom | Freddy | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1976 | 3B | 1924 | 1936 | |||
| Collins | Jimmy | 1 | 1 | 1945 | 3B | 1895 | 1908 |
Mike Schmidt dominates third base as Honus Wagner dominates shortstop and Rogers Hornsby dominates second base. Home Run Baker does surprisingly well. Mathews hit 512 HR. Kell and Robinson were inducted in the same year even though Kell retired twenty years earlier with offensive production at least comparable to Brooks Robinson. Did we overate Brooks? In the 1960s he and Clete Boyer set a new defensive standard for playing third. Brooks was MVP and later on two World Series champions. No, we didn't overate him.
It looks like our Mendoza guy is the legendary Pie Traynor. Old Pie didn't hit all that much for his era. MVP voting covered the last seven years of his career but he was shutout in this analysis. At best he's on the bubble.
Lindstrom and Collins should be deducted.
Here are the candidates for third base.
| 7 | Boggs | Wade | 39 | 14 | 53 | 3 | 3B | 1982 | 1995 | |||
| 30 | Brett | George | 23 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 29 | 3B | 1973 | 1993 | ||
| 34 | Rosen | Al | 4 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 35 | 10 | 3B | 1947 | 1956 | |
| 38 | Zimmerman | Heinie | 8 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 3B | 1907 | 1919 | |||
| 41 | Molitor | Paul | 12 | 21 | 33 | 8 | 3B-DH | 1978 | 1995 | |||
| 50 | Hack | Stan | 11 | 20 | 31 | 3B | 1932 | 1947 | ||||
| 69 | Johnson | Howard | 10 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 2 | 3B | 1982 | 1995 | ||
| 76 | Williams | Matt | 14 | 10 | 24 | 7 | 3B | 1987 | 1995 | |||
| 84 | Groh | Heinie | 7 | 1 | 15 | 23 | 3B | 1912 | 1927 | |||
| 90 | Boyer | Ken | 5 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 3B | 1955 | 1969 | |
| 106 | Santo | Ron | 5 | 11 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 3B | 1960 | 1974 | ||
| 107 | Bando | Sal | 6 | 10 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 3B | 1966 | 1981 | ||
| 114 | Evans | Darrell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 3B-1B | 1969 | 1989 | |||
| 159 | Yost | Eddie | 13 | 13 | 3B | 1944 | 1962 | |||||
| 169 | Rolfe | Red | 12 | 12 | 3B | 1931 | 1942 | |||||
| 184 | Nettles | Graig | 10 | 10 | 1 | 3B | 1967 | 1988 |
The Hall needs third basemen since it's the most underrepresented position. We've got a dilemma or an opportunity here. Of the sixteen candidates all exceed Pie Traynor offensively and thirteen exceed Brooks Robinson. But Traynor and Robinson are legends. Defensive play at third has continued to improve over the last three decades. Do we induct this entire group all at once?
We could make Eddie Mathews the standard for third basemen who are primarily hitters and Brooks Robinson the standard for players who are primarily fielders. Evans hit 414 HR, Nettles 390. Brett's the only one with 3,000 hits although Boggs and Molitor (as a DH) could join him. Brett, Rosen and Ken Boyer were MVP. Nettles was as good defensively as Robinson and was a clutch performer on two World Series champions. Nettles led the American League in HR one season.
Santo is often mentioned as a prominent candidate. Bando is not. Santo played in a hitter's park. Bando played in a pitcher's park. Santo was never on a first place team. Bando was on several including three consecutive World Series champions. Bando has three times as many MVP points. Maybe people are considering the wrong Italian third baseman. Or maybe they should consider both.
Now I can see why third base is so underrepresented in the Hall. When it seems that you should induct everybody it's easier to induct nobody. Since there are so many candidates, I'm going to concentrate only on the post 1945 players.
Boggs and Brett (MVP and World Series championship) should both
be inducted at the top of this class. Both improved themselves
defensively, especially Boggs. Rosen (MVP) played only seven seasons
which makes his numbers even more impressive; he should be inducted.
Molitor has been a DH for too long. Howard Johnson had some big
numbers, could steal bases, World Series championship ... why
don't I think of him as a Hall of Famer? Defense and low MVP points.
Matt Williams may be on his way. Let's wait and see. Ken Boyer
could field and led his team to a World Series championship. Induct
Boyer. I'm joining Santo and Bando at the hip. If someone wants
to convince me to induct Santo, that person is going to have to
take Bando as well. I'm not recommending either. Evans and Yost
were shutout on MVP points eliminating them. Nettles was a virtual
shutout but boy did he play a great third base. If we get to point
where we induct a third baseman primarily for his defense who,
by the way, happened to hit 390 HR, Nettles is our guy.
Shortstops:
Here are the Hall of Fame shortstops.
| Wagner | Honus | 46 | 8 | 41 | 26 | 121 | 1936 | SS | 1897 | 1917 | |
| Banks | Ernie | 26 | 19 | 8 | 53 | 28 | 1977 | SS-1B | 1953 | 1971 | |
| Vaughan | Arky | 11 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 10 | 1985 | SS | 1932 | 1948 | |
| Appling | Luke | 14 | 14 | 14 | 1964 | SS | 1930 | 1950 | |||
| Boudreau | Lou | 9 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 1970 | SS | 1938 | 1952 | ||
| Bancroft | Dave | 10 | 10 | 1971 | SS | 1915 | 1930 | ||||
| Reese | Pee Wee | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1984 | SS | 1940 | 1958 | |||
| Rizzuto | Phil | 4 | 4 | 17 | 1994 | SS | 1941 | 1956 | |||
| Cronin | Joe | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1956 | SS | 1926 | 1945 | |||
| Tinker | Joe | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1946 | SS | 1902 | 1916 | |||
| Aparicio | Luis | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1984 | SS | 1956 | 1973 | ||
| Sewell | Joe | 2 | 2 | 1977 | SS | 1920 | 1933 | ||||
| Maranville | Rabbit | 1 | 1 | 1954 | SS-2B | 1912 | 1935 | ||||
| Wallace | Bobby | 1 | 1 | 1953 | SS | 1894 | 1918 | ||||
| Jennings | Hughie | 0 | 1945 | SS | 1891 | 1918 | |||||
| Jackson | Travis | 0 | 3 | 1982 | SS | 1922 | 1936 |
After all the grief about Rizzuto, low and behold, he comes out in the middle of the pack ahead of Cronin, Tinker and Aparicio. Holy cow! If Reese was ten years better than Rizzuto why are they virtually tied and why is Rizzuto so far ahead in MVP points? MVP is based only on regular season performance and Reese's Dodgers won seven pennants while Rizzuto's Yankees won ten pennants. That doesn't seem like enough of a difference to account for it. They both played in the same city at the same time. It looks to me like the conventional wisdom was correct. Either both or neither should have been inducted at the same time. Making Rizzuto wait ten years was cruel.
It's clear that Honus Wagner dominates shortstop as Rogers Hornsby
dominates second base and as Mike Schmidt dominates third base.
Ernie Banks hit 512 HR and is the only shortstop to win consecutive
MVPs. In five years Banks hit over forty HR four times. Wrigley
Field helped but his numbers are awesome. Vaughn could certainly
hit and, Boudreau and Bancroft carried some lumber. But the rest
are in for their defense. I'm not going to recommend any deductions.
Here are the candidates for shortstops.
| 6 | Stephens | Vern | 20 | 24 | 10 | 54 | 11 | SS | 1941 | 1955 | ||
| 93 | Pesky | Johnny | 10 | 11 | 21 | 8 | SS-3B | 1942 | 1954 | |||
| 99 | Yount | Robin | 6 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 20 | SS-OF | 1974 | 1993 | ||
| 144 | Ripken | Cal | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 27 | SS | 1981 | 1995 | |
| 170 | Trammell | Alan | 9 | 3 | 12 | 7 | SS | 1977 | 1995 | |||
| Smith | Ozzie | 7 | SS | 1978 | 1995 |
Ozzie Smith was never in the top five in any of my four categories. He finished a strong second (with 193 points from the writers) to Andre Dawson's 293 (then with the Cubs) in the 1987 MVP vote. He should be inducted. He revolutionized shortstop play and was the best ever defensively. He was a decent offensive player with over 1,200 Runs and a key contributor to three pennants and one World Series champion.
Stephens, Yount, Ripken and Trammell should be inducted. Stephens has already been discussed; bopper hitting at shortstop. Yount had 3,000 hits and is the only player with an MVP award at two positions: shortstop and centerfield, both key defensive spots.
Ripken and Banks are the only shortstops with two MVPs. In 1995 Ripken broke Gehrig's unbreakable major league record of 2,130 consecutive games played. In 1996 Ripken broke Sachio Kinugasa's international record of 2,215 consecutive games played.
In 1987 Trammell narrowly lost the MVP to George Bell 332 to 311. Trammell was a key player on the 1984 Tigers World Series champion.
Second Basemen:
Here are the Hall of Fame second basemen.
| Hornsby | Rogers | 52 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 148 | 1942 | 2B | 1915 | 1937 | |
| Lajoie | Nap | 28 | 7 | 21 | 11 | 67 | 1937 | 2B | 1896 | 1916 | |
| Collins | Eddie | 26 | 4 | 29 | 59 | 1939 | 2B | 1906 | 1930 | ||
| Gehringer | Charlie | 13 | 1 | 27 | 41 | 20 | 1949 | 2B | 1924 | 1942 | |
| Robinson | Jackie | 14 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 11 | 1962 | 2B | 1947 | 1956 | |
| Morgan | Joe | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 26 | 1990 | 2B | 1963 | 1984 |
| Frisch | Frankie | 2 | 4 | 14 | 20 | 10 | 1947 | 2B | 1919 | 1937 | |
| Herman | Billy | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 11 | 1975 | 2B | 1931 | 1947 | |
| Doerr | Bobby | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 1986 | 2B | 1937 | 1951 |
| Lazzeri | Tony | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 1991 | 2B | 1926 | 1939 | ||
| Schoendienst | Red | 5 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 1989 | 2B | 1945 | 1963 | ||
| Evers | Johnny | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1939 | 2B | 1902 | 1929 |
Hornsby dominates the second basemen as Honus Wagner dominates
shortstop and Mike Schmidt dominates third base. Amazingly, the
second basemen have much better offensive records than the third
basemen. For that reason it is not acceptable to have two weak
hitting second basemen in the Hall. Schoendienst and Evers should
be deducted.
Here are the candidates for secondbase.
| Sandberg | Ryne | 2 | 6 | 24 | 32 | 16 | 1981 | 1994 | |||
| Stirnweiss | Snuffy | 7 | 12 | 19 | 8 | 1943 | 1952 | ||||
| Gordon | Joe | 2 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 1938 | 1950 | ||
| Fox | Nellie | 7 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 1947 | 1965 | ||||
| Stanky | Eddie | 13 | 13 | 5 | 1943 | 1953 | |||||
| Grich | Bobby | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1970 | 1986 | |||||
| Whitaker | Lou | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1977 | 1995 | |||||
| Mazeroski | Bill | 0 | 1956 | 1972 |
Induct Sandberg, Gordon and Fox all of whom were MVP. Sandberg was helped by Wrigley Field but his numbers are still substantial. Sandberg hit 40 HR, could steal bases and led his team to a rare division title. Bill James has an excellent chapter titled "Gordon and Doerr" in which he deomonstrates that contrary to the convenional wisdom Gordon was actually significantly better offensively between the two contemporary rivals and that Gordon was a great fielder. Gordon was on five World Series champions in six years with the Yankees and one more with the Indians. Fox led the go go 1959 pennant winning White Sox.
Stirnweiss padded his stats during
World War II. Grich must have been working his magic when I wasn't
looking which is what I thought before I did this analysis. I'd
put Whitaker in before Mazeroski but neither stacks up to those
already in the Hall. People who study it rave about Maz's defensive
stats but, ironically, the only thing he did with a bat was hit
the most dramatic HR in World Series history in the bottom of
the ninth of a tied seventh game in 1960 in Pittsburgh. He also
played part time for the Pirates 1971 World Series champion.
Pitchers:
Here are the top 42 rated
pitchers.
| Johnson | Walter | 48 | 46 | 21 | 75 | 190 | 1936 | 1907 | 1927 | ||
| Grove | Lefty | 34 | 51 | 35 | 46 | 166 | 11 | 1947 | 1925 | 1941 | |
| Spahn | Warren | 63 | 32 | 25 | 28 | 148 | 6 | 36 | 1973 | 1942 | 1965 |
| Mathewson | Christy | 45 | 36 | 25 | 32 | 138 | 1936 | 1900 | 1916 | ||
| Alexander | Grover | 37 | 29 | 23 | 40 | 129 | 1938 | 1911 | 1930 | ||
| Seaver | Tom | 33 | 27 | 26 | 36 | 122 | 7 | 44 | 1992 | 1967 | 1986 |
| Carlton | Steve | 33 | 16 | 26 | 44 | 119 | 3 | 45 | 1994 | 1965 | 1988 |
| Feller | Bob | 34 | 19 | 14 | 38 | 105 | 18 | 1962 | 1936 | 1956 | |
| Ryan | Nolan | 7 | 16 | 3 | 74 | 100 | 20 | 1966 | 1993 | ||
| Hubbell | Carl | 27 | 29 | 16 | 25 | 97 | 25 | 1947 | 1928 | 1943 | |
| Koufax | Sandy | 19 | 25 | 18 | 33 | 95 | 24 | 35 | 1972 | 1955 | 1966 |
| Clemens | Roger | 19 | 28 | 14 | 31 | 92 | 15 | 42 | 1984 | 1995 | |
| Vance | Dazzy | 15 | 18 | 9 | 45 | 87 | 1955 | 1915 | 1935 | ||
| Wynn | Early | 27 | 16 | 10 | 33 | 86 | 6 | 10 | 1972 | 1939 | 1963 |
| Gomez | Lefty | 21 | 22 | 16 | 26 | 85 | 6 | 1972 | 1930 | 1943 | |
| Palmer | Jim | 25 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 85 | 44 | 1990 | 1965 | 1984 | |
| Newhouser | Hal | 20 | 19 | 13 | 29 | 81 | 27 | 1992 | 1939 | 1955 | |
| Bunning | Jim | 15 | 15 | 8 | 41 | 79 | 7 | 1996 | 1955 | 1971 | |
| Ford | Whitey | 17 | 23 | 31 | 8 | 79 | 6 | 13 | 1974 | 1950 | 1967 |
| Roberts | Robin | 30 | 17 | 11 | 21 | 79 | 8 | 1976 | 1948 | 1966 | |
| Grimes | Burleigh | 23 | 13 | 18 | 24 | 78 | 1964 | 1916 | 1934 | ||
| Young | Cy | 23 | 20 | 13 | 18 | 74 | 1937 | 1890 | 1911 | ||
| Waddell | Rube | 15 | 13 | 9 | 36 | 73 | 1946 | 1897 | 1910 | ||
| Brown | Mordecai | 23 | 29 | 15 | 2 | 69 | 1949 | 1903 | 1916 | ||
| Ruffing | Red | 17 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 69 | 4 | 1967 | 1924 | 1947 | |
| Gibson | Bob | 17 | 14 | 8 | 30 | 69 | 13 | 20 | 1981 | 1959 | 1975 |
| Lemon | Bob | 33 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 68 | 3 | 1976 | 1946 | 1958 | |
| Maddux | Greg | 23 | 18 | 10 | 16 | 67 | 6 | 40 | 1986 | 1995 | |
| Plank | Eddie | 25 | 9 | 19 | 13 | 66 | 1946 | 1901 | 1917 | ||
| Blyleven | Bert | 4 | 17 | 8 | 36 | 65 | 5 | 1970 | 1992 | ||
| Marichal | Juan | 24 | 16 | 18 | 5 | 63 | 1 | 1983 | 1960 | 1975 | |
| Walsh | Ed | 14 | 20 | 5 | 24 | 63 | 1946 | 1904 | 1917 | ||
| Dean | Dizzy | 20 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 62 | 24 | 1953 | 1930 | 1947 | |
| Walters | Bucky | 18 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 59 | 15 | 1934 | 1950 | ||
| Jenkins | Fergie | 26 | 6 | 27 | 59 | 1 | 34 | 1991 | 1965 | 1983 | |
| Coveleski | Stan | 17 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 59 | 1969 | 1912 | 1928 | ||
| Guidry | Ron | 15 | 12 | 18 | 14 | 59 | 7 | 22 | 1975 | 1988 | |
| Gooden | Dwight | 12 | 11 | 19 | 16 | 58 | 3 | 17 | 1984 | 1994 | |
| Pierce | Billy | 14 | 15 | 10 | 18 | 57 | 1 | 1945 | 1964 | ||
| Perry | Gaylord | 18 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 54 | 27 | 1991 | 1962 | 1983 | |
| Drysdale | Don | 10 | 13 | 5 | 25 | 53 | 2 | 10 | 1984 | 1956 | 1969 |
| Newsom | Bobo | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 53 | 4 | 1929 | 1953 |
As with the big boppers the methodology seems pretty solid. I don't think that there are substantive problems with these Hall of Famers. Unlike the big bopper batters, post 1945 pitchers (including Spahn who played briefly before World War II) have seven of the top twelve spots. Does that mean that natural selection is not as strong among pitchers? I don't have quick answer. Walter Johnson (190) and Lefty Grove (166) have numbers similar to the top two batters, Ruth (203) and Cobb (171). It's remarkable that one batter and one pitcher have such similarly domiant totals and leads over the number two players. Johnson and Ruth seem to provide anecdotal support for early dominance of natural selection.
It's also remarkable that Koufax scored so high since his Hall of Fame credentials really consisted of only five seasons. Bunning rated pretty high. It's too bad that he had to wait so long to be inducted.
Drysdale has been re-examined since his untimely death. Bill James wrote a brilliantly detailed chapter on Drysdale which concluded that "he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame". But Drysdale is already in the Hall of Fame. I am dealing with a different question: should he be deducted? No. I remember him as a big deal, starting the All Star game to intimidate the American Leaguers which he did. I was not a fan. I did not like the fact that he was a head hunter. But his record is good enough to stay.
The top rated non-Hall of Famers, Ryan, Clemens, and Maddux, could all be inducted right now. The remaining non-Hall of Famers have strong credentials: Blyleven, Walters, Guidry, Gooden, Pierce and Newsom.
Ryan is the most amazing power pitcher of all time. His 300 wins alone might be enough for the Hall but his power accomplishments put him over. Ryan is in a virtual tie with Walter Johnson in SO points and way ahead of any other pitchers. Ryan has 5,714 lifetime SO; Carlton is second with 4,136. Ryan pitched SEVEN no-hitters. Koufax, with four, is the only other pitcher with more than three.
Clemens was the pitcher of the 1980s: three Cy Young awards. Maddux is the pitcher of the 1990s: four consecutive Cy Young awards.
Guidry and Gooden each won one Cy Young award with dominant years. Guidry led his team to two consecutive World Series championships. Guidry was a classic team player volunteering to go to the bullpen when the closer was injured in mid-season. Gooden won one World Series championship and was the best pitcher in baseball in the mid 1980s. Their point totals are high enough. Both should be inducted.
Blyleven is up there almost exclusively because of SO. He was
on two World Series championships (Pirates and Twins). Walters
led the Reds to a World Series championship and deserves to be
re-evaluated. Newsom bounced around a lot and had a losing record.
Pierce finished surprisingly high but, unfortunately, still suffers
as a second place team's version of Whitey Ford. Pierce was on
pennant winners with the White Six and Giants. I would not support
any of them without more study.
Here are the remaining Hall of Famers. They are interspersed in
my complete list with many non-Hall of Famers.
| Hunter | Catfish | 16 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 43 | 25 | 1987 | 1965 | 1979 | |
| Pennock | Herb | 10 | 11 | 19 | 2 | 42 | 1948 | 1912 | 1934 | ||
| Hoyt | Waite | 8 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 1969 | 1918 | 1938 | |||
| Chesbro | Jack | 18 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 39 | 1946 | 1899 | 1909 | ||
| Joss | Addie | 10 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 1978 | 1902 | 1910 | |||
| Lyons | Ted | 15 | 22 | 1 | 38 | 1955 | 1923 | 1946 | |||
| Faber | Red | 10 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 1964 | 1914 | 1933 | ||
| McGinnity | Joe | 21 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1946 | 1899 | 1908 | ||
| Marquard | Rube | 11 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 37 | 1971 | 1908 | 1925 | ||
| Rixey | Eppa | 13 | 15 | 7 | 35 | 1963 | 1912 | 1933 | |||
| Bender | Chief | 4 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 32 | 1953 | 1903 | 1925 | ||
| Haines | Jesse | 5 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 22 | 1970 | 1918 | 1937 | ||
| Wilhelm | Hoyt | 10 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 1985 | 1952 | 1972 | ||
| Nichols | Kid | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1949 | 1890 | 1906 | ||||
| Keefe | Tim | 0 | 1964 | 1880 | 1893 | ||||||
| Radbourn | Charley | 0 | 1939 | 1881 | 1891 | ||||||
| Cummings | Candy | 0 | 1939 | 1872 | 1877 | ||||||
| Paige | Satchel | 0 | 1971 | 1948 | 1965 | ||||||
| Fingers | Rollie | 0 | 13 | 15 | 1992 | 1968 | 1985 | ||||
| Ward | Monte | 0 | 1964 | 1878 | 1884 | ||||||
| Rusie | Amos | 0 | 1977 | 1889 | 1901 | ||||||
| Clarkson | John | 0 | 1963 | 1882 | 1894 | ||||||
| Welch | Mickey | 0 | 1973 | 1880 | 1892 | ||||||
| Spalding | Al | 0 | 1939 | 1871 | 1877 | ||||||
| Galvin | Jim | 0 | 1965 | 1875 | 1892 |
Wilhelm and Fingers were relievers and are not expected to do well in this system. Paige was inducted because of his great pitching in the Negro leagues. The others with zero points pitched primarily, if not exclusively, prior to 1901 which is the first year of my analysis.
Hunter's point total is significantly lower than Drysdale's. In other words, there is a clear break between the bottom pitcher in the first group and the first pitcher in the second group. That places a burden on Hunter and then next eleven pitchers through Haines to show other credentials. Since Hunter is the only post 1945 pitcher in this dozen he becomes the Mendoza line for post 1945 starting pitchers.
Catfish Hunter pitched a perfect game. He won a Cy Young award and has almost as many Cy Young points as Gaylord Perry who won Cy Young awards in each league. Catfish was a key pitcher on five World Series champions with two teams. Nolan Ryan's non-SO point total is 26. Catfish beats him easily in Wins and Pct. Who would you rather have pitching a big game? I support Catfish Hunter's Hall of Fame standing despite his lifetime Pct of .574.
Only two of the dozen pitchers had even double figures in SO. Maybe that works unfairly against them. Let's look for additional credentials.
Pennock (.597) pitched for three World Series champions for the Yankees where he consistently posted winning records. Hoyt (.566) pitched on six pennant winners, all but one with the Yankees, and three World Series champions. For the powerful 1927-1928 Yanks he went 22-7 and 23-7. I guess that did it for him.
Chesbro (.600) won twenty games five out of six years leading the league twice including 41-12 in 1904. Those 41 wins are the modern record and probably put Jack into the Hall of Fame.
Joss (.623) won twenty games four consecutive years pitching his entire but brief career for the Indians; Joss pitched two no-hitters. Lyons (.531) won twenty games three times pitching his entire career for the White Sox; Lyons pitched a no-hitter. Faber (.544) won twenty games four times including three in a row pitching his entire career for the White Sox; he was on the 1917 World Series champion and the 1919 team that threw the World Series although he was not implicated.
McGinnity (.634) won twenty in 1899-1901 and 1903-1906, including 31 and 35. He was on 1905 World Series champion. His 1899 and 1900 seasons are not reflected in his point total. Marquard (.532) won twenty on each of the Giant pennant winners 1911-1913; he also pitched for two Brooklyn pennant winners and one World Series champion. Rixey (.515) won twenty games four times and was on one pennant winner. Bender (.625) won twenty games twice and in ten years pitched on five pennant winners and two World Series champions for the Philadelphia As; Bender pitched a no-hitter.
Haines (.571) won twenty games three times and pitched on three Cardinal World Series champions.
It's difficult to judge pitchers from so long ago. All of these pitchers could have been omitted without causing a stir. Lyons, Faber, Marquard, Rixey and Haines, who has especially weak credentials, all have low lifetime Pct. They should be deducted. The others are marginal but these five should go.
I found the pitchers results even more chaotic than the third basemen's. As we'll see there are many non-Hall of Fame pitchers who rated on a par with the second half of the top group above.
Here's a list of the non-Hall of Fame pitchers with point totals of 40 or greater plus a few random selections including Babe Ruth. The Babe did pretty well in his short pitching career. According to a study in the 22nd SABR Baseball Research Journal Babe would have won the Cy Young award in 1916 if it had been awarded back then. The field called Rank shows the pitcher's relative position in the full list of non-Hall of Famers.
| 1 | Ryan | Nolan | 7 | 16 | 3 | 74 | 100 | 20 | 1966 | 1993 | ||
| 2 | Clemens | Roger | 19 | 28 | 14 | 31 | 92 | 15 | 42 | 1984 | 1995 | |
| 3 | Maddux | Greg | 23 | 18 | 10 | 16 | 67 | 6 | 40 | 1986 | 1995 | |
| 4 | Blyleven | Bert | 4 | 17 | 8 | 36 | 65 | 5 | 1970 | 1992 | ||
| 5 | Walters | Bucky | 18 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 59 | 15 | 1934 | 1950 | ||
| 6 | Guidry | Ron | 15 | 12 | 18 | 14 | 59 | 7 | 22 | 1975 | 1988 | |
| 7 | Gooden | Dwight | 12 | 11 | 19 | 16 | 58 | 3 | 17 | 1984 | 1994 | |
| 8 | Pierce | Billy | 14 | 15 | 10 | 18 | 57 | 1 | 1945 | 1964 | ||
| 9 | Newsom | Bobo | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 53 | 4 | 1929 | 1953 | ||
| 10 | Vaughn | Hippo | 13 | 12 | 4 | 23 | 52 | 1908 | 1921 | |||
| 11 | Saberhagen | Bret | 14 | 14 | 17 | 5 | 50 | 25 | 1984 | 1995 | ||
| 12 | Morris | Jack | 26 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 50 | 13 | 1977 | 1994 | ||
| 13 | Cooper | Mort | 14 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 50 | 11 | 1938 | 1949 | ||
| 14 | Niekro | Phil | 18 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 49 | 7 | 1964 | 1987 | ||
| 15 | Cone | David | 11 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 49 | 18 | 1986 | 1995 | ||
| 16 | Johnson | Randy | 9 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 48 | 22 | 1988 | 1995 | ||
| 17 | Reynolds | Allie | 6 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 48 | 12 | 1942 | 1954 | ||
| 18 | Cicotte | Eddie | 10 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 47 | 1905 | 1920 | |||
| 19 | Newcombe | Don | 14 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 47 | 10 | 10 | 1949 | 1960 | |
| 20 | Root | Charlie | 9 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 1923 | 1941 | |||
| 21 | Shocker | Urban | 13 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 46 | 1916 | 1928 | |||
| 22 | Derringer | Paul | 20 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 1931 | 1945 | |||
| 23 | Mays | Carl | 17 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 45 | 1915 | 1929 | |||
| 24 | Cooper | Wilbur | 21 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 44 | 1912 | 1926 | |||
| 25 | Burdette | Lew | 17 | 12 | 14 | 43 | 5 | 1950 | 1967 | |||
| 26 | McDowell | Sam | 3 | 10 | 29 | 42 | 5 | 1961 | 1975 | |||
| 27 | Pascual | Camilo | 10 | 7 | 1 | 24 | 42 | 1954 | 1971 | |||
| 28 | Hendrix | Claude | 17 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 41 | 1911 | 1920 | |||
| 29 | Langston | Mark | 8 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 40 | 1984 | 1995 | |||
| 35 | McLain | Denny | 16 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 37 | 10 | 20 | 1963 | 1972 | |
| 44 | Blue | Vida | 8 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 35 | 10 | 10 | 1969 | 1986 | |
| 45 | Sutton | Don | 10 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 1966 | 1988 | ||
| 47 | Tiant | Luis | 10 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 34 | 1964 | 1982 | |||
| 51 | Glavine | Tom | 18 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 27 | 1987 | 1995 | ||
| 53 | John | Tommy | 11 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 14 | 1963 | 1989 | |||
| 57 | Maglie | Sal | 9 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 32 | 10 | 7 | 1945 | 1958 | |
| 62 | McNally | Dave | 14 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 1962 | 1975 | ||
| 81 | Cuellar | Mike | 13 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 13 | 1959 | 1977 | ||
| 103 | Ruth | Babe | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 1914 | 1933 | |||
| 127 | Kaat | Jim | 10 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1959 | 1983 | |||
| 155 | Lonborg | Jim | 6 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 1965 | 1979 | |||
| 187 | Pappas | Milt | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 1957 | 1973 |
We've already covered the top nine in this list. Tiant and Pappas were included because their lifetime stats have been judged, by others, to be similar to Hall of Famers and those lifetime stats have been juxtaposed by others for arguments sake. Tiant to Hunter. Pappas to Drysdale. Notice that Tiant has no Cy Young points. The Pappas comparison speaks for itself.
For the pitchers with borderline point totals I'm more impressed with those who have balance among the categories rather than a lot of SO points pushing their scores up. Saberhagen has won two Cy Young awards and one World Series championship. Morris contributed to World Series champions in Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto. Phil Niekro won 300 games and has a good point total. Reynolds was the mainstay on the Yankee's five consecutive World Series champions; he was a starter who often relieved. Saberhagen, Morris, Niekro and Reynolds should all be inducted.
Cone and Johnson seem well on their way but need to finish strong. Newcombe should be re-evaluated; his problem is that he couldn't get Yogi out in those World Series games. Langston has a shot but needs to finish with a flurry.
Cicotte threw the 1919 World Series. Carl Mays was mean and he killed Ray Chapman with a pitch, bad stuff for a guy on the bubble. McClain is the only pitcher to win thirty (31 in 1968) since Dizzy Dean won 30 in 1934. McClain won consecutive Cy Young awards. He did not finish off his career and he went to jail. They'll never make it.
Don Sutton won 300 games. To me that's his only credential. I would not induct him.
None of the others should be inducted. I was shocked at how low Jim Kaat finished. Had there been a Cy Young award for each league at the time Kaat would surely have won in 1966 with his 25 wins. Kaat's a great guy but he not should go in. The Babe got more points.
*** The End ***
If you have questions, comments or suggestions, send e-mail to Ken Matinale at [email protected]