The Best Home Run Hitter of All Time

Kenneth Matinale

Who was the best home run hitter of all time? Hank Aaron has the record for lifetime home runs at 755. Doesn’t that make him the best? Maybe, but if so, this would be a brief document. Let’s look at both lifetime home runs and season totals. Let’s do it first with anecdotal information, then with statistical methods which level the playing field across the years of modern baseball starting in 1901.

Through the 1999 season, here are the players with the most home run lifetime:

Last First HR Max AB Start End

Aaron Hank 755 47 12,364 1954 1976

Ruth Babe 714 60 8,399 1914 1935

Mays Willie 660 52 10,881 1951 1973

Robinson Frank 586 49 10,006 1956 1976

Killebrew Harmon573 49 8,147 1954 1975

Jackson Reggie 563 47 9,864 1967 1987

Schmidt Mike 548 48 8,352 1972 1989

Mantle Mickey 536 54 8,102 1951 1968

Foxx Jimmie 534 58 8,134 1925 1945

McGwire Mark 522 70 5,652 1986 1999

McCovey Willie 521 45 8,197 1959 1980

Williams Ted 521 43 7,706 1939 1960

Mathews Eddie 512 47 8,537 1952 1968

Banks Ernie 512 47 9,421 1953 1971

Ott Mel 511 42 9,456 1926 1947

Murray Eddie 504 33 11,336 1977 1997

Gehrig Lou 493 49 8,001 1923 1939

These numbers seem simple enough yet they start the inevitable series of questions that might undermine the great Hank Aaron’s claim to be the greatest of all the home run hitters. The first column following lifetime home runs is the maximum that the player hit in a single season. Aaron tops out at 47 while Babe Ruth’s legendary 60 shines even though Mark McGwire has hit 70. Of the 17 players listed only four have career highs less than Aaron’s. The next column, At Bats, is the next logical one. Hank Aaron had 47% more at bats than Babe Ruth whose record he broke. Would we claim that Pete Rose was the best hitter of all time because he has the most hits and that he was a better hitter than Ty Cobb whose hit record he broke? How about George Sisler who holds the record for hits in a season? Is he the best hitter?

The final two columns show when the player accumulated his totals. This introduces the most complicated issue of all. How do we compare home runs hit in different eras? Is there a way to show how Ruth’s 60 in 1927 relates to the 1998 season when McGwire hit 70 and compute new season home run numbers? Finally, can we take these new season numbers and add them up to lifetime totals that can better represent how each player’s accomplishments relate to all the other players?

Let’s start with the anecdotal. In 1921 Babe Ruth hit his 137^th lifetime home run breaking the record held by Roger Connor who played from 1880 to 1897. Ruth would hold the lifetime home run record 53 years, until 1974 when Hank Aaron of the Braves hit number 715 in Atlanta, Georgia. After Babe Ruth’s final season in 1935 he had 714 home runs; Lou Gehrig was second with 378. Ruth had 89% more home runs than anyone else. After Hank Aaron’s final season in 1976 he had 755 home runs. That’s 5.7% more than Ruth. Aaron had 89% more home runs than Al Kaline’s 399; Kaline was number 17 in 1976.

That’s a bit unfair to Aaron since Ruth’s accomplishments occurred earlier in the history of modern baseball, particularly if we mark the start of modern home run hitting around 1919 or 1920 when Ruth practically invented it. Aaron finished in 1976, over fifty years later. Ruth kept up his home run hitting for about 15 years. Counting expansion more than three times as many players had been hitting home runs when Aaron finished as when Ruth finished. On the other hand, none had broken Ruth’s record even though home run hitting had become much more prevalent.

Here is the list of the 17 top home run hitters again. This time two new columns are introduced: a ratio of AB/HR and a home run total of Aaron’s AB (12,364) divided by the player’s ratio. This shows how many home runs that player would have hit had he batted as many times as Aaron who batted more than all of those home run hitters. Only Pete Rose with 14,053 had more at bats than Hank Aaron. The column of projected home runs puts the matter into a very different yet concrete perspective.

Last First AB HR theRatiotheHR Start End New Old Dif

McGwire Mark 5,652 522 10.83 1,142 1986 1999 1 10 9

Ruth Babe 8,399 714 11.76 1,051 1914 1935 2 2 0

Killebrew Harmon8,147 573 14.22 870 1954 1975 3 5 2

Williams Ted 7,706 521 14.79 836 1939 1960 4 12 8

Mantle Mickey 8,102 536 15.12 818 1951 1968 5 8 3

Foxx Jimmie 8,134 534 15.23 812 1925 1945 6 9 3

Schmidt Mike 8,352 548 15.24 811 1972 1989 7 7 0

McCovey Willie 8,197 521 15.73 786 1959 1980 8 11 3

Gehrig Lou 8,001 493 16.23 762 1923 1939 9 17 8

Aaron Hank 12,364 755 16.38 755 1954 1976 10 1 -9

Mays Willie 10,881 660 16.49 750 1951 1973 11 2 -9

Mathews Eddie 8,537 512 16.67 742 1952 1968 12 13 1

Robinson Frank 10,006 586 17.08 724 1956 1976 13 4 -9

Jackson Reggie 9,864 563 17.52 706 1967 1987 14 6 -8

Banks Ernie 9,421 512 18.40 672 1953 1971 15 14 0

Ott Mel 9,456 511 18.50 668 1926 1947 16 15 -1

Murray Eddie 11,336 504 22.49 550 1977 1997 17 16 -1

One reason it makes sense to look at players with such high home run totals is because it suggests that they played full careers. That is, they probably had some down years following their peaks. That’s why it’s not fair to include players like Kiner and DiMaggio who quit near their peaks. McGwire is the exception but that is a tribute to his incredible home run hitting prowess. Gehrig also missed declining years because of his tragic and sudden end due to the terminal illness that bears his name. However, he still amassed a virtual total of 500 home runs and is included for that reason.

McGwire and Ruth project to hit well over 1,000 home runs. Aaron drops to tenth. Considering that Aaron hit no more than 47 in any one season, one can see that his strength is his consistency over an incredibly long time. Aaron’s total remains unchanged because everyone else is being adjusted to him.

The biggest improvements are: McGwire 9, Williams and Gehrig 8. The biggest drops are: Aaron, Mays and Robinson 9, Jackson 8.

This still does not take eras into account. The statistical method will address that later.

Here are all the players who led the league in home runs at least as frequently as Hank Aaron.

Last First Number

Ruth Babe 12

Schmidt Mike 8

Kiner Ralph 7

Ott Mel 6

Killebrew Harmon6

Cravath Gavvy 6

McGwire Mark 4 *

Aaron Hank 4

Klein Chuck 4

Mays Willie 4

Williams Cy 4

Williams Ted 4

Mantle Mickey 4

Baker Frank 4

Mize Johnny 4

Jackson Reggie 4

Davis Harry 4

Wilson Hack 4

Griffey Ken 4

Greenberg Hank 4

Foxx Jimmie 4

* Note that Mark McGwire should have five because he also led majors in 1997 with 58, the fourth highest total up to that time. However, he split the season between the As of the American League and the Cardinals of the National League. McGwire hit 34 in the AL and 24 in the NL.

Babe Ruth set new records for most home runs in a single season four times, in three different home parks: for the Red Sox in 1919 - 29 in Fenway Park, then for the Yankees in the Polo Grounds 1920 - 54, 1921 – 59 and finally in Yankee Stadium 1927 – 60. Ruth held the single season record for 42 years from 1919 to 1961 when Roger Maris hit 61 playing 5% more games. In 1927 Ruth out homered every other team in the American League. In 1998 when McGwire hit 70 he would have needed 216 home runs to have done that and 108 to out homer even one team. Following the 1927 season Lou Gehrig’s 47 home runs in 1927 was the second most by any player other than Ruth. Ruth had 13 more home runs than any other player to that point in baseball history. Following the 1998 season Sammy Sosa’s 66 was the second most by any player. McGwire had 4 more home runs than any other. Through 1927 Ruth had 27% more home runs in a season than anyone else. McGwire had 6% more in a season than anyone else. Even if we compare McGwire’s record 70 to Ruth’s 60 the difference is 10 home runs and 16.6%. And McGwire’s team played 5% more games.

Here are the top spreads between the first and second place home run hitters. All except Cy Williams in 1923 are in the American League.

Dif Pct

1921 Ruth Babe 59 Meusel/ Williams 24 35 146%

1920 Ruth Babe 54 Sisler George 19 35 184%

1926 Ruth Babe 47 SimmonsAl 19 28 147%

1928 Ruth Babe 54 Gehrig Lou 27 27 100%

1956 Mantle Mickey 52 Wertz Vic 32 20 63%

1919 Ruth Babe 29 Sisler/Baker/ Walker 10 19 190%

1923 WilliamsCy 41 Fournier Jack 22 19 86%

1924 Ruth Babe 46 Hauser Joe 27 19 70%

After their ferocious home run race in 1927 (they were tied at 45) the Babe doubled Gehrig’s second place total the following season. In 1919 when Ruth originally set the home run record the Babe had the biggest percentage lead ever over the runner up.

Here are Hank Aaron’s leads.

Dif Pct

1966 Aaron Hank 44 Allen Dick 40 4 010%

1967 Aaron Hank 39 Wynn Jim 37 2 005%

1957 Aaron Hank 44 Banks Ernie 43 1 002%

1963 Aaron Hank 44 McCoveyWillie44 0 0%

Here are Mark McGwire’s leads.

Dif Pct

1998 McGwire Mark 70 Sosa Sammy 66 4 006%

1999 McGwire Mark 65 Sosa Sammy 63 2 003%

1996 McGwire Mark 52 AndersonBrady50 2 004%

1987 McGwire Mark 49 Bell George 47 2 004%

Let’s look at the ball parks for McGwire’s 70 home run season in 1998 in the National League versus Ruth’s 60 home run season in 1927 in the American League.

Dimensions for Ruth’s seven AL road parks in 1927:

Park LL LC C RC RL Ave Name City

Bos 320 379 488 405 358 390 Fenway Park Boston

Chi 365 375 455 375 365 387 Comiskey I Park Chicago

Cle 376 415 450 400 290 386 League II Park Cleveland

Det 340 365 467 370 371 383 Tiger Stadium Detroit

Phi 312 405 468 393 307 377 Shibe Park Philadelphia

StL 355 379 430 354 315 367 Sportsman's Park St. Louis

Was 358 391 421 378 320 374 Griffith Stadium Washington

Road 347 387 454 382 332 380 Average of Ruth’s road parks

Home 280 460 490 429 295 391 Yankee Stadium New York

Ave 313 424 472 406 314 386 Average home and road

Dimensions for McGwire’s fifteen NL road parks in 1998 (AL parks for inter-league play not included):

Park LL LC C RC RL Ave Name City

Ari 330 374 407 374 334 364 Bank One BallPark Phoenix

Atl 335 380 401 390 330 367 Turner Field Atlanta

Chi 355 368 400 363 353 368 Wrigley Field Chicago

Cin 330 375 404 375 330 363 Riverfront Stadium Cincinnati

Col 347 390 415 375 350 375 Coors Field Denver

Fla 335 380 404 380 345 369 Pro Player Stadium Miami

Hou 325 375 400 375 325 360 Astro Dome Houston

LA 330 385 395 385 330 365 Dodger Stadium Los Angeles

Mil 315 362 402 362 315 351 County Stadium Milwaukee

Mon 325 375 404 375 325 361 Olympic Stadium Montreal

NY 338 378 410 378 338 368 Shea Stadium New York

Phi 330 371 408 371 330 362 Veterans Stadium Philadelphia

Pit 335 375 410 375 335 366 Three Rivers Stadium Pittsburgh

SD 327 370 405 370 330 360 Jack Murphy Stadium San Diego

SF 330 365 400 365 328 358 Candlestick Park San Francisco

Road 332 375 404 374 333 364 Average of McGwire’s road parks

Home 330 372 402 372 330 361 Busch Stadium St. Louis

Ave 331 373 403 373 332 363 Average home and road

Here are the key numbers side by side, distances for 1927 minus distances for 1998:

Road LL LC C RC RL Ave

Ruth 347 387 454 382 332 380

McGwire332 375 404 374 333 364

Dif 14 12 50 8 -1 17

Home LL LC C RC RL Ave

Ruth 280 460 490 429 295 391

McGwire 330 372 402 372 330 361

Dif -50 88 88 57 -35 30

AverageLL LC C RC RL Ave

Ruth 313 424 472 406 314 386

McGwire331 373 403 373 332 363

Dif -18 50 69 32 -18 23

If we compare their respective power alleys, RC for the lefty Ruth and LC for the righty McGwire:

Road Home Ave

McGwire 375 372 373

Ruth 382 429 406

Dif 7 57 33

Center field is a whopping advantage for McGwire - 69 feet! At home McGwire’s advantage is 88 feet! The overall average to all fields gives McGwire a 23 foot advantage.

The Method:

For each AL and NL season starting in 1901, a ratio is computed of AB/HR. Those are averaged for all the seasons. This eliminates the differences in numbers of games and teams. It treats each season equally. Each League gets an average. Let’s call it the league century average. Then, that average is applied to the ratio for each league year average to compute a ratio for that league that year. Each player’s actual home run total will be multiplied by this annual league ratio.

The result will be a new home run number for each player adjusted for how that season fits into all the other seasons. If the frequency of home runs for that year is greater than the league century average the ratio will be less than one and the player’s home run total will be reduced accordingly, otherwise it will be increased.

For instance, here are the six occurances of players hitting 60 home runs in a season.

New Player L L L L_Cent

Last Year Team L AB HR HR Dif AB/HR P*L AB HR AB/HR Ave theRatio

McGwire1998 StL N 509 70 28.0 -42.0 07.3 04.8 88,701 2,565 34.6 86.5 0.40

Sosa 1998 Chi N 643 66 26.4 -39.6 09.7 03.5 88,701 2,565 34.6 86.5 0.40

McGwire1999 StL N 521 65 23.1 -41.9 08.0 03.8 89,011 2,893 30.8 86.5 0.36

Sosa 1999 Chi N 625 63 22.4 -40.6 09.9 03.1 89,011 2,893 30.8 86.5 0.36

Maris 1961 NY A 590 61 23.1 -37.9 09.7 03.7 54,904 1,534 35.8 94.3 0.38

Ruth 1927 NY A 540 60 61.0 01.0 09.0 10.7 42,117 439 95.9 94.3 1.02

For 1999 and 1998 McGwire and Sosa have the same league average of AB/HR, 34.6 and 30.8 respectively. In 1998 home runs were being hit once every 34.6 AB. For both the 1998 and 1999 seasons McGwire and Sosa have the NL league century average. In 1999 dividing that year’s average by that of the century results in a ratio of .4. When McGwire’s 70 home runs are multiplied by the ratio of .4 the result is 28 home runs.

The rate of about one home run every 35 AB was almost the same in 1961 for Maris as it was in 1998 for McGwire. In 1927 for Ruth it was almost three times less frequent.

The two columns in the middle show something not used in the calculation of the player’s new home run total but of interest. The player’s personal ratio for that season of AB/HR is multiplied by the league’s to show how much more productive the player was than the league. For instance, in 1999 McGwire hit home runs 4.8 times the league average. In 1927 Ruth hit home runs 10.7 times the league average. Ruth’s 60 was more than twice as productive as McGwire’s 70.

The designated hitter (DH) was not made a factor. It should have been but that would have introduced much complexity and I was not at all clear as to how to go about it. In 1973 the first year of the DH the NL had a higher home run rate of only .16% more than the AL. In every year after that the AL had a greater home run rate, the difference ranging from .97% in 1976 to 36.23% in 1982. However, from 1960 through 1972 the AL had a greater home run rate in all but two of those 13 seasons. The biggest AL bulge was 28.32% in 1964. Plus the AL expanded by two teams in 1977 and the NL did not expand until 1993 and 1998. In 1993 the NL deficit shrank from 20 percent to 6 percent then went back up to 15.5% in 1994. So what factor should be applied to the AL starting in 1973?

Here are the numbers starting in 1960.

Year A N Dif Pct

1960 38.5 40.5 -1.95 -5.06%

1961 35.8 35.2 .57 1.59%

1962 35.6 38.3 -2.67 -7.52%

1963 36.9 45.1 -8.16 -22.09%

1964 35.6 45.7 -10.07 -28.32%

1965 39.7 42.0 -2.34 -5.89%

1966 39.6 40.2 -.57 -1.44%

1967 45.3 49.9 -4.67 -10.32%

1968 48.6 61.6 -12.98 -26.68%

1969 39.7 44.7 -4.99 -12.54%

1970 37.6 39.5 -1.88 -4.99%

1971 43.6 47.8 -4.23 -9.72%

1972 52.5 46.4 6.08 11.57%

1973 42.7 42.6 .07 .16%

1974 48.2 51.7 -3.49 -7.23%

1975 44.6 53.6 -8.99 -20.14%

1976 58.6 59.1 -.57 -.97%

1977 38.4 40.9 -2.51 -6.53%

1978 45.5 51.1 -5.58 -12.27%

1979 38.2 46.3 -8.08 -21.12%

1980 42.2 53.3 -11.08 -26.23%

1981 47.8 60.7 -12.87 -26.90%

1982 37.4 51.0 -13.57 -36.23%

1983 40.9 47.0 -6.11 -14.95%

1984 39.3 51.6 -12.23 -31.08%

1985 35.5 46.2 -10.75 -30.30%

1986 33.8 43.2 -9.37 -27.73%

1987 29.5 36.3 -6.79 -22.99%

1988 40.5 51.3 -10.75 -26.55%

1989 44.8 48.2 -3.40 -7.58%

1990 42.8 43.4 -.61 -1.43%

1991 39.7 45.7 -5.97 -15.04%

1992 43.4 52.1 -8.66 -19.94%

1993 37.4 39.6 -2.25 -6.01%

1994 31.1 35.9 -4.83 -15.52%

1995 32.1 36.0 -3.89 -12.12%

1996 28.8 35.0 -6.16 -21.37%

1997 31.6 35.7 -4.11 -13.00%

1998 31.4 34.6 -3.20 -10.20%

1999 29.6 30.8 -1.12 -3.77%

For individual seasons this puts AL players at a disadvantage, especially for those home run hitters who played after 1973, notably McGwire and Ken Griffey, Jr. However, it may not skew the lifetime totals all that much.

Here are those lifetime totals.

Last First NewHR HR DifHR Start End

Ruth Babe 718 714 4 1914 1935

Ott Mel 419 511 -96 1926 1947

Aaron Hank 371 755 -388 1954 1976

Gehrig Lou 364 493 -129 1923 1939

Foxx Jimmie 353 534 -182 1925 1945

Hornsby Rogers 315 301 14 1915 1937

Schmidt Mike 315 548 -238 1972 1989

Williams Cy 311 251 60 1912 1930

Mays Willie 310 660 -351 1951 1973

Williams Ted 291 521 -231 1939 1960

McCovey Willie 275 521 -249 1959 1980

Robinson Frank 265 586 -323 1956 1976

Stargell Willie 262 475 -216 1962 1982

Jackson Reggie 255 563 -311 1967 1987

Mize Johnny 248 359 -113 1936 1953

Killebrew Harmon246 573 -331 1954 1975

Musial Stan 245 475 -233 1941 1963

Kingman Dave 238 442 -206 1971 1986

Banks Ernie 238 512 -275 1953 1971

Mantle Mickey 236 536 -302 1951 1968

Klein Chuck 236 300 -65 1928 1944

Simmons Al 233 307 -76 1924 1944

Dawson Andre 232 438 -208 1976 1996

Mathews Eddie 228 512 -287 1952 1968

Williams Billy 223 426 -206 1959 1976

Murphy Dale 221 398 -183 1976 1993

Bench Johnny 220 389 -172 1967 1983

Winfield Dave 217 465 -250 1973 1995

DiMaggio Joe 215 361 -148 1936 1951

Murray Eddie 214 504 -290 1977 1997

Bonds Barry 206 445 -243 1986 1999

Evans Darrell 206 414 -208 1969 1989

Yastrzemski Carl 204 452 -250 1961 1983

Greenberg Hank 203 331 -128 1930 1947

Perez Tony 203 379 -176 1964 1986

McGwire Mark 200 522 -322 1986 1999

Ruth, Cy Williams (131 to 8) and Rogers Hornsby (81 to 6) are the only players whose home run totals actually increase as does their relative position. Ruth moves from 2 to 1. Aaron drops only to 3. Mel Ott in the number 2 slot is partly explained by his hitting about 60 percent of his homers at home in the Polo Grounds where he no doubt took advantage of the short 260 foot distance down the right field line. Mays drops from 3 to 9. Frank Robinson from 4 to 12. Mickey Mantle from 8 to 20. McGwire from 10 to 44.

Babe Ruth is the best home run hitter of all time. The Babe hit about as many as anyone else in individual seasons and for his career and he did it when not many home runs were being hit.

*** The End ***