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SAD IS TO STUPID AS CHALLENGING IS TO CARGO CULT

I got a couple more interesting letters about the global warming controversy. Note that there's not disagreement that warming exists. The question is, where to assign blame, and what to do about it? So rhetoric, not science, is what we're discussing here.

Christine E., a former student of mine who has returned home to Germany, is also a scientist, and she wrote to PO for the first time today. (See how good her English is! But I can't take much credit for that.)

The last one about global warming makes me kind of sad.

I think there is no doubt about global warming. Even if it would not be caused or accelerated by humans, we will have a problem with it ~ sooner or later. This whole political discussion about global warming and what it causes seems really to be a big US problem. I think we have to start doing something and not trying not find pseudo-scientific excuses e.g. CO2 is necessary for life anyway. This is really a stupid phrase. The US is one of the biggest contributors to global warming and the discussion in the US is still at this level. After having left the US (which I am still sad about!), I am really happy with the quality of news you get here in Europe.

Herb H., who originally sent the link to the Global Warming Swindle video, sent this:

I didn't want to leave unchallenged the inference that the IPCC "Summary for Policymakers" is a place to go for the straight poop. The IPCC is much of the problem ~ the perpetrator of many of the errors pointed out in the BBC documentary. I did read the "Summary for Policymakers." There are a few chuckles there, beyond the irony of IPCC being the source of info to resolve the problems created by IPCC. You will notice right away that the IPCC "Summary" is deliberately abstruse and obfuscatory. If you think "Policymakers" are going to wade through that until they believe they're making sense of it, you've had different experience with policymakers than I have.

One should note right away the fine-print footnote 6 at the bottom of page 4, which explains that the authors' "terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood, using expert judgement, of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence, Extremely likely > 95%, Very likely > 90%, Likely > 66%, More likely than not > 50%, Unlikely < 33%, Very unlikely < 10%, Extremely unlikely < 5%." All those terms and numerical brackets for them, and ALL based only on "expert judgement"! Well, someone should tell IPCC that "expert judgement" is not science any more than "consensus" is, and indeed is an anti-scientific concept.

If you look in this "Summary" for discussion of the most important greenhouse gas, one that just dwarfs carbon dioxide in importance from the "greenhouse theory" point of view, you won't find hide nor hair of it. If you wonder about volcanic carbon dioxide ~ which the BBC documentary said was greater than all the anthropogenic sources combined ~ you may find a footnote to a table explaining they left out volcanic carbon dioxide because it is "episodic."

Well, as long as the governments are putting two billion dollars per year on the table for "climate change," cargo cult science is going to fight for it tooth and nail. Gonna be interesting times.

Rhetorical Issues

In Christine's note: I'm not sure why she's sad, aside from leaving the US. Because we're all doomed? Because it's all the fault of stupid American critics of popular theories? I assume the "quality" of European news means the political opinions expressed in the news, as reflected in the way Christine expresses her views. Not sure what news sources she read or listened to in the US.

In Herb's note: The key terms here (from the PO POV) are: abstruse and obfuscatory language; the scientific meaninglessness of "expert judgement" and "consensus"; and episodic, which implies the large quantity of volcanic CO2 isn't important.

Everybody agrees that global warming exists, but the exact proportion of human contribution is in doubt. And I'm not sure what we can do about it, aside from the billions being spent. Do Al Gore's carbon credits really make a difference when he continues to own large, expensively maintained properties and flies in private jets? Some Germans, by the way, want to set speed limits on the Autobahn to conserve fuel. Also, the Germans and other Europeans have really low birth rates (except for the Muslims in Europe), so low they are not replacing themselves; perhaps preemptively depopulating the earth would be the kindest thing to do under the circumstances. But I'm not convinced that the earth is doomed, anyway. As I mentioned before, some years back there was a global cooling scare. I think we have more immediate threats to take care of. Total destruction of the earth is, of course, really important, but we're likely to be bombed before we're flooded. And by "we" I don't just mean the USA. If there is world-wide flooding, though, I guarantee the US will be the first to send help.

ACTIONABLE LANGUAGE

Someone did it again: used "actionable" to mean "practicable". Sen. John McCain said "actionable intelligence about terrorists". "Actionable" means liable for legal action, a lawsuit. But that's not what he meant. We have enough problems.

MR. LANGUAGE PERSON

Last week the link to the Dave Barry column, Mr. Language Person, was broken, but it's back again, so check it out.

TWINKIE

Another food insult: A Twinkie is yellow (Asian) on the outside, white on the inside. A Georgia Tech graduate student in international affairs named Ruth Malhotra was called a Twinkie (in addition to getting death and rape threats) for voicing conservative, Christian opinions in class and on campus. We're always fighting for free speech, but the speakers and repressors have switched since I was in college.

WORDS TO LIVE BY

One objection to the current (or any) war is that the "law of untended consequences" means that you can't predict the outcome, and you won't necessarily get the results you want. Of course this is true of ALL action ~ or, in fact, of all inaction. The opposite is a rule, expressed by my father as, "Do something, even if it is wrong." Some other military person I don't remember said that you're more likely to have a good outcome if you make some kind of decision than if you make no decision.

I've often thought about compiling a list of opposing words of wisdom that we've accumulated throughout our history of summing-up and advice-giving. For instance:

He who hesitates is lost.

BUT

Look before you leap.

And so on.

I myself like to quote proverbs to bolster a point, but I could easily find a contradictory bit of folk wisdom in every case. So nothing remains but for us to think through every new dilemma afresh, and make a decision. Even if it is wrong.

FACILE GRAND HISTORICAL COMPARISON ALERT

"Facile Grant Historical Comparison Alert" is the lead on a Paleojudaica Blog by Jim Davila. He continued:

Usually these involve America being the Roman Empire. This one in the American Chronicle is at least novel: The EU gets to be the Manichaeans.

Then he quoted from 50 Years of European Manichaeism by Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis:

What European politicians and statesmen, intellectuals and philosophers tried to exorcise with the most ardent fervor is precisely what they have immutably been so far: Manichaean!

We've been warned that to ignore history is perilous, but Davila is right about facile comparisons; I've complained before about the USA being compared to Nazi Germany.

BURROCRATIC

One of my students pronounced the "u" in bureaucratic as "ooh" instead of "you", making it sound like burrocratic. When I explained the difference we had a good laugh about burrocracy.

GOT QUESTIONS?

You can get answers at http://www.answers.com/. Look something up and you'll get returns from encyclopedias and numerous other web sources. Very useful. (What we're amazed about is that Fred can do this on his new phone, a miniature techno miracle.)

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HUR HERALD

Parvum Opus is now being carried by the Hur Herald, a web newspaper from Calhoun County, West Virginia. See Editor Bob Weaver's interview with me (February 10, 2007 entry), and the PO every week in Columns.

NEW! SHORT ORDER

Short Order is a new series of my short stories in 5 1/2" x 8 1/2" booklet format. The first two are available now for $5 each (includes mailing).

/// In Carl Kriegbaum Sleeps with the Corn, a young computer guy who dreams of becoming a big-time gambler sets up web sites for his role model, a real big-time gambler, Stockyard Stan of Kansas City. But when Carl comes up short on his gambling debts, he finds himself wearing concrete boots in the middle of a Kansas cornfield. 26 pages.

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SEARCH IT OUT ON AMAZON : It is the glory of God to conceal a thing: but the honour of kings is to search out a matter. Proverbs 25:2

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