Your Move...

  In the chess match of international geo-politics, a move by Pakistan and India toward conflict in Kashmir would likely put the United States in "check", facilitating a countering move that would do little other than keeping the game in progress. At this point, it's a no-win situation, as a move in our interest would end up being a move against our interest, which indicates our opponents are very able players.

     To successfully prosecute the war against Islamic terrorism, we need Pakistan (or at least Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf), in our corner. A recalcitrant, uncooperative Pakistan would make apprehension of fleeing Al-Queda and Taliban fighters very difficult, while providing them sanctuary in a nation that only a few months ago was their biggest benefactor, and where the "Holy Warriors" still enjoy strong support from the general population; an Afghanistan in the making, replete with religious fundamentalists espousing radical Islam and fomenting hatred. No, we need Musharraf to stand with us, shoulder-to-shoulder, against all manner of this specter, and, under present circumstances, he's extremely courageous to do so. The consequences for him are daunting, should his gamble fail. So, toward that end, we can't very well cut him off at the knees by supporting India at present, lest we cut off our own ability to complete the military mission of this war. Conversely, India faces deepening conflict with radical Islamic terrorists, in all likelihood based in, and protected by, Pakistan. As these are the same terrorists we've been bombing all over Afghanistan for the last several months, hunting them down like the mad dogs that they are, we may soon find ourselves allied with these very people we're fighting, opposite India, in our quest to keep Musharraf happy, in office and in tune with our war objectives..."CHECK!"

     Ordinarily, it would be a simple strategic decision to support the lesser of two evils, as it corresponds to our interests. But India is a nation with whom, since the end of the Cold War, we have had no quarrel. And we can certainly empathize with her pain and outrage in the wake of the deadly terrorist attack on the Indian parliament building in New Delhi, where, much like the Sept. 11 attack in New York, an assault was aimed not only against people, but against institutions. And if both countries marshaled merely conventional armed force, we could stay out of it. But we have two nations that cannot even feed their own teeming populations, facing off possessing nuclear capabilities. Do I think they'll use them? No. But it's hardly a gamble we can afford to take, so, consequently, we'll be forced to way-in should it come to war between them.

     I believe the Muslim strategists were thinking several moves ahead when they initiated this latest attack on India, for it serves several purposes simultaneously. First, war would create a diversion from our attempts to hook the big Taliban and Al-Queda fish, muddying the waters with regional confusion, providing fleeing terrorists a roiling smokescreen of cover to facilitate escape. Second, it would draw away Pakistani troops from the western theater, where they're needed to seal the border with Afghanistan, and, without whom, the job of apprehension would break down. And third, the Fundies seem to understand the unique dynamic in play vis-a-vis our current need of Pakistan, and are more than ready and willing to exploit it in a diabolical attempt to force our hand into making a defensive move, either in support of a terrorist harboring state, a confusing and seemingly contrary position, or in support of a democratic one, playing into Osama bin Laden's contention that the West is on a thinly veiled crusade against Islam, and likely shutting down our hunt for the bad guys.

     What to do? Ideally, this will turn out to be so much huffing, puffing and bluffing, and we won't have to decide, thereby keeping our war aims on track and focused. But life seems to entail supreme unforeseen ironies, and, like a good game of chess, the right moves are not always so obvious.