It might be single digits and snowing when you read this. Or, it might be sunny and well above freezing. If you live in the Glens Falls region there�s only one word for whatever weather greets you today: winter.

There are varying degrees of cold, and winter in the North Country brings them all.

I don�t pay much attention to weather forecasts in general, and hardly at all this time of year. I�ve got my winter jacket, my gloves, my boots. Unless I�m doing something special�taking a trip or planning an afternoon of errands�I don�t even check to see if there�s a storm brewing. When bad weather hits, I deal with it. If it doesn�t come, at least I didn�t throw my life in a tailspin for nothing.

I can hear some of you say, "Well, you have to be prepared." To which I reply, "If you prepared for every snowstorm that�s predicted or anticipated, you�d be at �red alert� all winter." I choose not to rearrange my life for something that may or may not happen.

That doesn�t mean I don�t think ahead to what-if. I just won�t do anything until I see evidence that it�s going to pan out. Even if that means waiting until 7 a.m. to cancel a 9 a.m. appointment.

We recently ordered two kitchen appliances and arranged to have them delivered. Even on that day, Saturday, the salesman was cautioning that a storm was expected on Friday. As long as it didn�t develop, we�d be fine.

On Thursday I got a call on my answering machine wondering if we would be ready that afternoon because the snow might make things difficult on Friday. By this time I�d heard through the grapevine that the storm might even be accompanied by some ice. My choices were to say yes, even though I wasn�t ready and it was a really bad day for the delivery, or say no and perhaps have to reschedule for the following week if the snow did come as predicted. I decided to say no and stick to the original plan.

The snow arrived as scheduled, but with less punch than feared. Our new refrigerator and dishwasher were delivered as scheduled. The only ice I was concerned about that day was the choice between crushed and cubed coming from my new icemaker.

The problem with long-range weather planning is that there are too many variables. It�s more complicated than a horserace. When was the last time you heard someone place a bet on whether or not it would snow?

"Hi. It�s me. Put me down for two inches on Monday afternoon," says the meteorologist. "I�ll hafta give ya 50-50 odds on that one," the bookie would reply.

An Albany area TV station is very proud of the fact that it has its own Doppler radar. This means that they know what�s coming from the skies as it�s happening�a full 15 minutes before their competitors, who share the same old radar and wait for the same reports.

Immediate weather conditions. What a concept. Unfortunately for them, when I want to know if there�s snow coming out of the sky I don�t turn on the TV and wait for the weather report. I look out my window.

This is not a diatribe against the weatherman. Storms develop, weather patterns swirl and spin, and the meteorologists track and report the developments with amazing accuracy. When all is said and prognosticated, however, they are making guesses. Highly educated guesses, it�s true. But guesses nonetheless.

Remember when you were a kid? You�d wake up and find snow on the ground and be amazed. Thousands of tiny snowflakes fell from sky to ground and slowly piled up, accumulating into inches and inches of something that wasn�t there the day before, and might not be there the day after.

Kids don�t need Doppler radar projections. They know how to live in the moment.

They also know how to dream.

Last Friday should have been a snow day. That�s what many students and teachers were thinking the night before. I heard a radio forecast that said snow wouldn�t develop until the afternoon, so I cautioned my daughter at bedtime not to expect a blizzard to sweep in and cancel school. She ignored me and wore her pajamas inside out anyhow (a new superstition which had worked a month earlier). Her hope was that the weather forecast was wrong.

A good bet, but in this case, the wrong one.

On the Bright Side appears every other week in The Post-Star. Catch up on earlier installments at www.kayhafner.com. Send comments to [email protected].