Living
a life that is at odds with random chance
On The Bright Side
by Kay Hafner
On the Saturday before that huge $350 million Big Game
lottery drawing, my mother called and said, "What�re
you doing today? Let�s go to Massachusetts and get one of
those lottery tickets." I had hoped to hang around the
house and do nothing, but since Mom isn�t known for her
spontaneity I felt compelled to go along with the impromptu
idea. Besides, it was a nice day for a drive and we needed
some family time.
Two hours later we embarked on an afternoon�s adventure,
my parents, my daughter and myself. The plan, as such, was to
get off the Mass Pike at the Lee exit and find the first place
that sold tickets. We willingly traveled three hours, round
trip, and burned a half tank of gas in order to buy pieces of
paper with numbers printed on them. As you probably heard, we
weren�t the only crazy people driving long distances to
neighboring states for the chance to win more money than most
people earn in a lifetime.
Along the way I decided to educate my daughter about the
mechanics behind lotteries. To show how random it all is, I
wrote down the possible numbers then closed my eyes and played
Eenie-Meenie-Miney-Moe, circling my pencil in the air and
selecting the numbers as Moe commanded. When I had enough
numbers for two lottery tickets I had my daughter pick some.
She decided against my selection method but pulled some
numbers from her head for me to write down.
It dawned on me that I was taking a gamble, of sorts, with
this lesson. What if we did select the winning numbers? True,
the odds of this were miniscule--one in 76 million-but we
truly had as much chance as anyone else, whether they used
computer "quick picks," their favorite lucky numbers
or any other selection method. There�s just no way to
predict the behavior of ping pong balls floating around in air
machines.
When I was a child of about 9 or 10, I found a bicycle
lock. It was one of those cylindrical combination locks with
four rings, each numbered from 0 - 9. I started playing with
it, hoping to hit on the magic sequence. I didn�t know about
odds back then, but I figured success was pretty
unlikely-after all, if anyone could guess such combinations,
what use would it be as a lock? Children, thankfully, have the
ability to live removed from the adult-defined
"waste-of-time" world.
I walked home, pulling numbers out of the air. License
plates? Nope. Once inside I kept trying. Phone numbers? Nope.
In my room, I glanced at a sheet of paper on the wall,
detailing a to-the-penny account of my net worth: everything
accumulated from my allowance plus the change in my piggy
bank. The grand total was something like $14.65. You�d think
I�d remember such an important number because, lo and
behold, those digits formed the correct combination to the
lock! I was so surprised that I closed the lock quickly and
tried the numbers again. Yes, that was it! I�d done it. I�d,
randomly, cracked the code. The nearly impossible (10,000:1
odds) was possible.
It�s not impossible to win the lottery, just very,
extremely, unbelievably unlikely. But if we�d won a big
prize in the Big Game-even, say, a small prize of $100-my
neatly crafted lesson illustrating the odds against winning in
lottery drawings might have been considerably less than
convincing.
This happy quandary did not occur. My numbers were complete
losers, and only one of my mother�s tickets earned her $4
for having the "power ball" number. I guess she�ll
have to mail in her ticket to get her winnings.
I don�t regret going. Besides the nice drive together, we
had other adventures. Instead of stopping at the first
convenience store off the exit, we drove into the quaint and
cozy city of Lee. Along the way we saw a Friendly�s and
decided to stop there for ice cream after we bought our
tickets. Before hitting the highway back home I did ask to
visit the convenience store right at the exit so I could get a
local paper. Sales at the store were brisk, with lottery
tickets and with gas, food and sodas for the people buying
those pieces of paper.
The man ahead of me in line plunked down $650 for tickets.
I�m guessing it was an office pool of some sort. At least I
hope it wasn�t all his money.
Kay Hafner, a writer from Queensbury, can be reached via
email at [email protected]. If you have forgotten your
bike lock combination she recommends 10 minutes of trying
random numbers--followed by a quick trip to the nearest
hardware store for a new lock.
copyright �
Kay
Hafner 2000