On the Bright Side

by Kay Hafner

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from The Post-Star, Glens Falls, NY  www.poststar.com 5/25/00

Living a life that is at odds with random chance

On The Bright Side

by Kay Hafner

On the Saturday before that huge $350 million Big Game lottery drawing, my mother called and said, "What�re you doing today? Let�s go to Massachusetts and get one of those lottery tickets." I had hoped to hang around the house and do nothing, but since Mom isn�t known for her spontaneity I felt compelled to go along with the impromptu idea. Besides, it was a nice day for a drive and we needed some family time.

Two hours later we embarked on an afternoon�s adventure, my parents, my daughter and myself. The plan, as such, was to get off the Mass Pike at the Lee exit and find the first place that sold tickets. We willingly traveled three hours, round trip, and burned a half tank of gas in order to buy pieces of paper with numbers printed on them. As you probably heard, we weren�t the only crazy people driving long distances to neighboring states for the chance to win more money than most people earn in a lifetime.

Along the way I decided to educate my daughter about the mechanics behind lotteries. To show how random it all is, I wrote down the possible numbers then closed my eyes and played Eenie-Meenie-Miney-Moe, circling my pencil in the air and selecting the numbers as Moe commanded. When I had enough numbers for two lottery tickets I had my daughter pick some. She decided against my selection method but pulled some numbers from her head for me to write down.

It dawned on me that I was taking a gamble, of sorts, with this lesson. What if we did select the winning numbers? True, the odds of this were miniscule--one in 76 million-but we truly had as much chance as anyone else, whether they used computer "quick picks," their favorite lucky numbers or any other selection method. There�s just no way to predict the behavior of ping pong balls floating around in air machines.

When I was a child of about 9 or 10, I found a bicycle lock. It was one of those cylindrical combination locks with four rings, each numbered from 0 - 9. I started playing with it, hoping to hit on the magic sequence. I didn�t know about odds back then, but I figured success was pretty unlikely-after all, if anyone could guess such combinations, what use would it be as a lock? Children, thankfully, have the ability to live removed from the adult-defined "waste-of-time" world.

I walked home, pulling numbers out of the air. License plates? Nope. Once inside I kept trying. Phone numbers? Nope. In my room, I glanced at a sheet of paper on the wall, detailing a to-the-penny account of my net worth: everything accumulated from my allowance plus the change in my piggy bank. The grand total was something like $14.65. You�d think I�d remember such an important number because, lo and behold, those digits formed the correct combination to the lock! I was so surprised that I closed the lock quickly and tried the numbers again. Yes, that was it! I�d done it. I�d, randomly, cracked the code. The nearly impossible (10,000:1 odds) was possible.

It�s not impossible to win the lottery, just very, extremely, unbelievably unlikely. But if we�d won a big prize in the Big Game-even, say, a small prize of $100-my neatly crafted lesson illustrating the odds against winning in lottery drawings might have been considerably less than convincing.

This happy quandary did not occur. My numbers were complete losers, and only one of my mother�s tickets earned her $4 for having the "power ball" number. I guess she�ll have to mail in her ticket to get her winnings.

I don�t regret going. Besides the nice drive together, we had other adventures. Instead of stopping at the first convenience store off the exit, we drove into the quaint and cozy city of Lee. Along the way we saw a Friendly�s and decided to stop there for ice cream after we bought our tickets. Before hitting the highway back home I did ask to visit the convenience store right at the exit so I could get a local paper. Sales at the store were brisk, with lottery tickets and with gas, food and sodas for the people buying those pieces of paper.

The man ahead of me in line plunked down $650 for tickets. I�m guessing it was an office pool of some sort. At least I hope it wasn�t all his money.

Kay Hafner, a writer from Queensbury, can be reached via email at [email protected]. If you have forgotten your bike lock combination she recommends 10 minutes of trying random numbers--followed by a quick trip to the nearest hardware store for a new lock.

copyright Kay Hafner 2000


 
  

 

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