Subject: Kartog’s Picks for Nominations and Running mates.
First the GOP. I think everyone sees that short of a miracle, McCain will win the nomination (although Huckabee “majors in miracles”). Even though recently he’s been doing less well, even if he only wins 40% of remaining states, he still wins by quite a large margin. However, the fact that he’s doing so poorly is a reflection of two things. One being his cocky attitude toward winning that has pretty much gone straight to the general election and is not paying as much attention as Huckabee on the nomination trail. The other is something that the media and campaign rhetoric has been spewing since day. McCain, though acts like a “loyal Bushie” towards Iraq, has some key different ideals in what conservatives consider to be the norm. The norm, as conservatives see it, is what Bush has up his sleeves at any given point in time. This is specifically ironic because Bush has dipped to a 32% approval rating, and that include conservatives.
That being said, If McCain is going to have a fighting chance in the general election he has to be able to combat the rising amount of Dem supporters that don’t, under any circumstances, want another Bush. This differs from what most conservative feels. They just want the mindless dribble the Bush campaign has spewed for the past 8 years to continue. This is why McCain needs to choose a strong highly conservative candidate. Romney, you may think, is the obvious choice.
Romney’s seems to be the frontrunner between Huckabee and him in conservative straw polls However, I think that he lost the VP nomination when he made his farewell speech. Though the McCain campaign is looking for a strong conservative, they also can’t piss the Dems (and therefore potential votes) off. Romney’s speech made most Dems just laugh at him (largely due to commentary by popular Dems Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert) and think he is an idiot. This means, that even though some Dems might be swayed to the GOP side because of McCain’s seemingly apparent liberalism, they’ll be rethinking the decision after seeing Romney as a running mate.
This is why the only way McCain will win is if he chooses someone in the middle. Someone who seems to denote all the evangelistic conservative values the GOP loves to eat up. Right now, the right candidate seems to be Huckabee. Again, because of Stewart and Colbert, Huckabee has the same credibility among Dems as McCain has. However, he seems stronger in his conservative policies then McCain does which makes him more appealing to the hardcore Republicans that remain. I think that the McCain/Huckabee ticket is the strongest nomination that the GOP can offer this election season. That is, unless a new player somehow becomes evident. Sorry to say, Ron Paul is wasting his money and time.
For the Democratic nomination I have to draw a line in the dirt and call it as an Obama victory. Though Hillary had some strong showings early on, Barack has had the edge recently. Most pundits are also leaning towards Obama. However, the race the too close to call, so I’ll so both.
If Obama wins, he’ll need a running mate that can easily tap into the minds of the less fortunate Dems, mainly being minorities and older people. I think he’ll first choose Clinton (the female one obviously), even as a formality under the table. However, I think that Hillary will decline the VP nomination and John Edwards will become Obama’s running mate. Edwards has been very careful about not talking to press or giving away who he’s backing. He’s sitting back and watching the fun. He’s trying not to piss either candidate off so that he can get the VP nomination. And it’s working. His intelligence far supersedes the fact that he is neither black nor a woman in my opinion, and if he wasn’t against Clinton and Obama, he would be doing a lot better than he had been. This makes him a strong Dem candidate. However, he tends to not have a strong showing in states that he should be winning hands down, which ironically, is the area that Obama excels in.
If Hillary wins, the Dems could be up shit creek without a paddle. That’s the media interpretation of events anyways. The percentage of the so called HillaryHaters is actually very small on the Dem side, much to the media chagrin. Most Dems are tired of conservative administrations with the dismal failure of the Bush one to look back on. This means that they would vote for pretty much any Dem nomination, even if it happened to be a pile of dirt with a hat and tie. However, to quell the minority of HillaryHaters, Clinton will choose Obama as her running mate. Obama will most likely accept since he wants to have a say in what the next administration does. Obama clearly does better against McCain than Hillary does so making a Clinton/Obama ticket is the strongest chance that the Dems have.
This takes us to the general election. The GOP has one helluva uphill battle to win the White House this year. This is largely due to the absolute ineptitude and resentment a vast majority of Americans feel toward the current occupants of the White house. Though they have more of a chance than most people gave them credit for a couple months ago, there is a very strong possibility that the next president will paint their bedroom blue. The public has already proved that with the huge bitch slap that was the congress and senate elections. If Obama wins, he has a very strong standing against everything that is McCain and the conservatives. He also has supreme likability in both the elephants and donkeys. Hillary by herself has enough support among the Dem base that she can also fairly easily win. In fact, the only way that the Republicans have a guaranteed chance of winning is if someone makes a mistake and pulls an Allen.
That isn’t to say that they don’t have a shot. McCain/Huckabee represents both the moderate and slightly extreme sides of the Republican Party which makes them very dangerous for the Dems. With McCain’s strong showing among swinging Dems, and Huckabee’s rapport with the evangelical conservative base, they’ll get mostly all of the GOP votes and perhaps steal some from the Dems. They have unity and synergy which is something that the Dems are going to have issues with.
The media and candidates are trying to separate Obama and Clinton as much as possible. In my opinion, all that’s doing is hindering the Dem ticket in November. Obama and Clinton, much like McCain/Huckabee both represent a different side of the Democratic party. The constant bolstering of the other candidates is causing an unnecessary and dangerous animosity between a lot of voters. The only way to clinch the presidency in November is to very quickly put it behind them after the primaries and work on a more united front like the Republicans will build.
What comes in November will most likely surprise a lot of people. And as events unfold, opinions will change. However, right now, this is what looks will happen.
