Run Differentials

It's been pointed out by some (including me many times) that in 2000, 2001 and 2003, I made the playoffs while being outscored by my opponents. One theory trying to explaing this was that I was winning all the close games because of my strong bullpen. In 2002, when I did outscore my opponents, but finished below .500, my pen was one of the weaker ones my franchise has ever fielded. I generally bought that theory, but always thought there were other factors playing into the won-loss, runs scored/runs allowed disparity.

Anyway, I mapped out each game I played in those three playoff seasons to see the breakdown of margins of victory (and margins of losses). I tried to do the same for 2002, but the file I got from the /ORGS page was incomplete for 2002. In the table below, the +'s are the number of games I won (and the margin in those victories) and the -'s are the number of games I lost (and the margins). BO's are the games I was involved in where I won or lost by 10 runs or more, which each individual margin in parens. 

2003 +9 +8 +7 +6 +5 +4 +3 +2 +1 
      2  1  2  5  6 11 11 16 32 

     -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9
     17 13 17  7  8  4  1  1  2

BO+
BO- (-10)(-10)(-13)(-11)(-11)(-13)


2001 +9 +8 +7 +6 +5 +4 +3 +2 +1 
      1  3  1  5  6 11 12 14 34 

     -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9
     17 14 12  5  8  4  7  4  0

BO+ (+11)
BO- (-15)(-10)(-16)


2000 +9 +8 +7 +6 +5 +4 +3 +2 +1 
      0  5  3  6  9  9  8 17 22

     -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9
     18 19  9 13  2  2  4  2  3

BO+ (+13)(+13)(+10)
BO- (-11)(-11)(-15)(-11)(-11)(-10)(-15)(-11)

These numbers suggest to me that I got blown out a good deal more than I was doing the blowing out. My record in blowouts was 4 wins and 17 losses. In blowouts, I was outscored by 157 runs, which seems pretty significant to my overall run differential. My record in blowouts may be the only reason for the disparity, in truth, and it may have little or nothing to do with relief pitching. Maybe my roster, "big picture" personality (as Bob might call it), or managerial style is much more succeptible to giving up the big margins. Or maybe I'm more prone to just on giving up at a certain point to save players/relievers to play/pitch in the "close" games. My record in 1-run games in these season was 88-52, when seems pretty significant to my success ... imagine going 92-69, yet being outscored by 121.

Does allowing yourself to get blown out inherently mean you can improve your record in 1-run games? Do blowouts happen more or less frequently to certain types of rosters, personalities, or managerial styles? I really don't know.

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