9ZI never had Dave approach me about a trade in his 4 seasons in the league, until he did at the 40 game mark of the 2003 season. That experience left an impression on me. The impression wasn't necessarily that Dave was trying to fleece me, it just seemed like he was offering me his worst picks relative to when he took them. Is that like in Bachelor Party, when the slimeball ex offers Tom Hanks a set of power tools to not marry Tawny Kitaen. Insert your own Chuck Finley joke here, btw. Again, the deals made an impression on me because I was offered only guys who I thought were taken as poor opportunity costs ... and I suppose when you make trade offers, a part of the rationale for making the offer is to get rid of players. One prime example of one of the worst picks relative to position that was offered to me was Mike Mussina, who, as a 9Z, Dave took in the 16th round. Mussina was the best 9Z, but he was not so special that he merited selection so early, I thought. A possible comparison to a 9Z would be an 11, and righty 11s were still available to Dave as late as round 22. But as Chris might tell me, that doesn't matter if Dave wanted Mussina in the 16th and he did not think he would be available in the 17th. I do not know if he would have been or not. Just the same, in selling Mussina to me, I was intrigued about what performamce I could possibly expect from a righty 9Z. I mean, if I was going to give up a bunch of other players in the deal, players who on average were taken earlier than the guys Dave offered, then I should expect some great production from the 9Z, shouldn't I? Well, in looking at 9Zs of the past, I did not think I would get anything too special. Here are the SL stats I considered:
R9Zs
YR MF ERA W L IP H R ER HR SO BB
Schilling 01 9Z 3 4.92 12 12 166.1 177 99 91 29 138 71
Tapani 98 9Z 2 4.40 3 2 47.0 53 25 23 3 19 14
Heffner* 01 9Z 2 5.18 4 1 41.2 47 24 24 10 18 5
Mlicki 97 9Z 1 4.82 8 11 149.1 154 88 80 24 111 55
Heredia 01 9Z 1 6.52 8 12 172.2 216 133 125 41 100 63
Grace 97 9Z 0 3.29 4 1 41.0 27 15 15 6 22 14
Adams 97 9Z 0 3.00 1 1 15.0 9 5 5 1 15 3
Blair 98 9Z 0 5.91 8 13 169.0 213 119 111 31 82 57
Clark 98 9Z 0 4.83 6 12 156.2 175 104 84 26 73 47
Ashby 00 9Z 0 4.75 9 10 159.0 163 88 84 27 86 69
Harnisch 00 9Z 0 6.25 5 14 152.2 186 113 106 29 81 58
Williams 01 9Z 0 5.72 4 10 119.2 120 77 76 25 87 56
---- -- -- --------- --- --- ---
5.34 72 99 1390 1540 824 252 512
5.34 ERA
.421 WIN%
9.97 H/9
3.32 BB/9
1.63 HR/9
Really, these numbers are not that terrible. Starting pitchers in recent seasons have been below .500 on average, so it's not as though I would have been put off by a .421 win %, and the league ERA in 2000-2002 rose pretty high, so a 5.34 ERA probably isn't that far below normal, especially for a starter. Just the same, I wanted no part of Mussina at the cost Dave was suggesting. So what did Mussina do for Dave? That wasn't the point of my looking up the guys from the past, but I think that answers the ultimate question ... what could I expect from Mussina? Here are his final 2003 numbers: 5.24 ERA .294 WIN% 11.4 H/9 2.6 BB/9 1.41 HR/9 Mussina might have had a better winning percentage for me than he did for Dave, just if I used him differently. And his totals were not all that different than Mark Mulder, who was a player I was supposed to give Dave in the deal (Moose was better than the lefty 12Z in several areas, in fact). But 40 games into the season, I had no reason to expect that Mussina would pitch any better than the 9Zs of the past or the 12Z Mulder. OK, and whether this is fair or not, here's what the righty 11s did in 2003, the group that I earlier compared to Mussina:
R11s
YR MF ERA W L IP H R ER HR SO BB
RuOrtiz 03 11G 2 4.77 6 6 117.0 118 68 62 17 63 57
Clement 03 11 1 4.27 3 13 139.0 136 77 66 19 115 58
Schmidt 03 11 0 4.45 6 11 129.1 139 71 64 18 122 45
Trachsel 03 11 1 4.80 6 5 150.0 154 91 80 22 82 68
RaOrtiz 03 11L 112.60 0 0 5.0 8 7 7 4 3 2
---- -- -- --------- --- --- ---
5.34 21 35 540.1 555 279 80 230
4.65 ERA
.375 WIN%
9.24 H/9
3.83 BB/9
1.33 HR/9
Again, I don't know if my next comparison is fair, but it possibly is relevant ... if you take the Ortizes out of the equation (exclude the G and an L, so we are comparing apples to oranges instead of apples to tangerines), the numbers are: 4.52 ERA .341 WIN% 9.23 H/9 3.68 BB/9 1.27 HR/9 So what does it all mean? I think Mussina was taken too early, I don't think he was good trade bait, and the 11s taken several rounds later proved to be better opportunity costs, if not better pitchers. But the main tangible thing about taking Mussina when Dave did, when it's all said and done, was that it did not cost him a playoff season. The other tangible thing that I took from this all is what I expected all along, that selling a 9Z is a tough sell in reasonable trade talks. | << Back | Main 2003 Notes Page | |