Posted by Seeker [Seeker] on November 16, 1999 at 18:44:24 {pRztWiaeukjQkQtcahuY79YAW9JMpc}:
Now that we have heard about the decrease in the U.S. publishers (not to mention many other countries), what do you think the trend for the future will be? I find myself going back and forth with two different scenarios. Which one seems more likely to you? Or do you have a third scenario in mind?
1. The current slowing down will echo the late 70s. Back then, there was disappointment over 1975. Now, there is disappointment over the generation change. For a few years, the growth slows and there are even decreases. Then, after those who are disappointed leave, and new ones come in who have never heard about 1975 (or the old generation idea), growth picks back up. The GB goes on rewriting history, and the WTS picks up steam.
2. All of the above is true, but this time the Internet changes the rules. Yes, there are new ones coming in all the time who don't know the old history, but thanks to the Net they can find out. Especially is this true of Bible Students, who cannot be threatened off of sites like this. As they would when buying a car, they research this new religion on the Net and are shocked by what they find. End result is much fewer Bible Students being baptized, and growth is permanently slowed.
My personal opinion is that scenario number 1 is more likely. Yes, the Net will have an impact in the more developed countries, but Witnesses will quickly tell their students to stay away from 'bad sites', just as they now tell them right away to expect their relatives to 'discourage' them from studying. And since there are endless amounts of people searching for the kind of easy answers the Witnesses give, they will be only too happy to swallow the arguments.
In other words, I expect the current slowing down of the growth rates to continue for another couple of years, and then to gradually start going back up.
What do you think?
Seeker
P.S. Of course, if something monumental happens, such as half the GB quitting in disgust, that would change everything. But I don't see that happening.