The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 31/ Sunday, February 01 – TX/OK: Across the Texas-Oklahoma region today the weather will be warm with sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to the low 70s. Winds will be from the southwest and gaining in intensity during the day today. Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s with moderate southerly winds.  Tomorrow conditions will cool somewhat as a cold front enters the region. In Oklahoma, high temperatures on Sunday will be in the 50s with moderate northerly winds and partly cloudy skies. Lows on Sunday night will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. In Texas, high temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and low 70s with partly cloudy conditions. Initially winds will be from the south but will gradually shift to moderate northerly winds as the front enters the region. There will be a chance of showers along the southern and eastern edge of the Plateau. Lows on Sunday night in Texas will range from the 30s to mid 40s.

Trajectory weather: Today, the air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast. At the higher elevations the trajectories continue moving to the northeast, but the low elevation trajectory doubles back overnight as the cooler air from the north moves in. The trajectories show moderate characteristics for entrainment and travel. At the source area, there will be sunny skies and warm temperatures in the low 70s this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s. Sunday’s trajectories move to the south with less favorable characteristics for entrainment and travel. High temperatures at the source are on Sunday will be in the mid 50s with lows Sunday night in the low 30s.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow; moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, poor conditions tomorrow. Warm temperatures with sunny skies and moderate winds present good conditions for release today but with moderate conditions for downwind travel. Tomorrow, conditions will be moderately good for release but poor for entrainment. In addition, we are approaching the traditional end of the Juniperus ashei pollinating period thus the amount of pollen may be marginal.  Late January is usually the time that pollination in Juniperus ashei trees begins to wane, thus lower concentrations in the atmosphere should be expected, even under excellent conditions for dispersal.  This period also signals the beginning of pollination of Juniperus virginiana a species that is somewhat less allergenic.  In many cases the concentration of all cedar pollen in the atmosphere will remain significant but result in fewer symptoms as it represents a mix of the two species.  

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

SATURDAY

 

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Earth andEnvironmental Science, California State UniversityFresno), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released MountainCedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecastpathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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