The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 29 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 29 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be improving, returning to warmer conditions today and tomorrow.  There is a chance of freezing fog this morning in north Texas but sunny skies will eventually prevail across the area and remain tomorrow.  Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the 40s today with clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate northwest winds. Overnight lows will be in the 20s. The warming trend will continue on Friday with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s; skies will be clear with light to moderate westerly winds. In Texas, skies will be clear today with temperatures in the 50s and 60s and northerly winds. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. Conditions will continue to improve on Friday with temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s, sunny skies, and west winds.

 

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau mainly move to the south but show some variability across the area with some trajectories moving southeast and others southwest. Trajectory characteristics are mixed for entrainment and dispersal. Trajectories from the west show poor characteristics; while others are good. At the source sites today, skies will be sunny with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the low 60s.  Low temperatures tonight will dip into the 30s in the surrounding communities and into mid to lower 20s on the Plateau. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow with sunny skies continuing.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today along with mixed conditions for entrainment and travel. Warming conditions with moderate winds today along with a buoyant atmosphere later in the afternoon will present moderate conditions for pollen release, and moderate conditions for entrainment and travel.  Winds today will be towards the south. Tomorrow winds will blow from the southwest reversing the travel direction.  Tonight clear skies will result in cold temperatures, reaching into the lower 20s on the Plateau. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

 

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

 

 

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA  93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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