The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 29 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 29 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be improving, returning to warmer conditions today and tomorrow.  There is a chance of freezing fog this morning in north Texas but sunny skies will eventually prevail across the area and remain tomorrow.  Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the 40s today with clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate northwest winds. Overnight lows will be in the 20s. The warming trend will continue on Friday with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s; skies will be clear with light to moderate westerly winds. In Texas, skies will be clear today with temperatures in the 50s and 60s and northerly winds. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. Conditions will continue to improve on Friday with temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s, sunny skies, and west winds.

 

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south today and then turn east in the morning. Trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and downwind dispersal. At the source area, mostly sunny skies will return for the next few days. High temperatures today will be in the lower 40s after a cold morning. Temperatures will continue warming tomorrow into the lower 50s. Winds will be light and variable today, then pick up to moderate conditions during the late afternoon. A similar pattern of light and variable to moderate conditions then returning to light and variable conditions will occur tomorrow. 

 

 OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** poor conditions for pollen release today along with poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Cold conditions along with a dense atmosphere will present poor conditions for pollen release and for entrainment and travel.  In sheltered areas, some pollen release may be possible this afternoon, but any pollen that is released will remain close to the source areas.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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