The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, January 24 and 25 – TX/OK: Across the region cold conditions will occur today with some warming tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 30s today in Oklahoma with clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate to strong winds from the north. Overnight temperatures will be in the 20s with winds shifting to easterly. Temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer than today with highs reaching the 40s across Oklahoma. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds from the east, southeast. Tomorrow night clouds will increase. Temperatures will be in the 20s in the north and the 30s in the south with a chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle.  Today, in north Texas and on the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s, while slightly warmer conditions, mid-50s, will occur in communities to the south. Winds will be from the north today switching to a northeasterly direction overnight with skies clear to partly cloudy. Overnight lows will range from the mid 20s to the upper 30s. Temperatures on Sunday will rebound back into the mid-to upper 60s across much of Texas with winds coming from the south or southeast. Mostly sunny skies will return on Sunday but partly cloudy conditions will return Sunday night with the chance of drizzle in some areas.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau initially move to the south, southwest this afternoon and then curve around to the west and then to the north. Each of the trajectories initially shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level.  Conditions at the sources will be cold today only reaching the favorable range in the southern areas of the Plateau and San Antonio. In addition atmospheric conditions are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind. Tomorrow air mass trajectories move to the north and then turn sharply to the east. Conditions at the source areas will improve greatly tomorrow after a cold night.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today/ Moderate to High Threat Tomorrow *** Generally, poor conditions for pollen release today along with poor conditions for transport. Some pollen release is likely to occur today in the communities along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow should see favorable conditions for pollen release after a cold night. Conditions for transport should improve slightly tomorrow as well for an increased risk of exposure through the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

SATURDAY

AUSTIN

 

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

 

 

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

 

 

SUNDAY

AUSTIN

 

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA  93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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