The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, Jan 19. TX/OK: Across the region warm sunny conditions will occur today with warm conditions and light to moderate winds from the north and northwest.  In Oklahoma, temperatures will be in the 50s.  Winds will begin light and build towards moderate conditions during the day and overnight.  Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 30s with clear skies and continued sunny tomorrow, maintaining moderate winds from the northwest.  Temperatures will cool by 10 degrees or so.  Tomorrow night skies will remain clear with low temperatures returning to the lower 30s and winds relaxing to light and variable.  In Texas, this morning will see temperatures in the 30s, higher around the Plateau than on the higher elevations of the Plateau.  Today temperatures will reach the 70s in many regions.  Winds will be from the northwest and moderate building to stronger sustained winds this afternoon.  Tonight temperatures will be in the mid 30s on the Plateau and in the lower 40s in the surrounding communities.  Winds will continue northwesterly and become lighter over the evening hours.  Tomorrow skies will remain clear and sunny with high temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees cooler.  Winds will remain from the northwest and again return to lighter conditions.  

Trajectory weather: Clear skies today with temperatures in the 50s will occur in the Arbuckles of southern Oklahoma.  Winds will be light to moderate from the northwest and will remain steady overnight from the northwest.  The trajectories show that the air mass will move toward the south, southeast today and tonight towards the Gulf of Mexico.  Tomorrow winds will maintain their northwestern direction with sunny but cooler conditions.  Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be good for pollen release today and tomorrow because of warm sunny conditions and moderate winds.  Moderate winds today but with stable atmospheric conditions will result in only moderate conditions for travel of pollen entrained into the atmosphere.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today along with fair conditions for entrainment and transport today. Warm conditions with moderate winds will present favorable conditions for pollen release but only fair conditions for entrainment and travel.  Winds today will be towards the south today and tomorrow.  However, stable air masses across the region may partially restrict the disseminating of pollen long distances from the source. As a result much of the pollen will remain local. Tomorrow, winds remain from the northwest at moderate strength.  Sunny skies and dry conditions will maintain the chance of pollen dispersal tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Earth andEnvironmental Science, California State University Fresno), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released MountainCedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecastpathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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