The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

SATURDAY and SUNDAY

 

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional weather:  Saturday and Sunday, Jan 17 and 18. TX/OK: A weak frontal system is moving through northern Oklahoma this morning shifting winds from southwest to northwest and dropping dew points. This front will bring only slightly cooler air into the region. On the whole, temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be quite mild. Oklahoma will see daytime temperatures today in the mid 50s to low 60s with clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate winds shifting to northwesterly. Overnight temperatures will range from the upper 20s to the mid 30s in Oklahoma. On Sunday Oklahoma will have clear to partly cloudy skies with highs in the 50s and moderate northwesterly winds. Sunday night will have lows in the upper 20s to low 30s across the state. In Texas high temperatures today will be in the low 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. There will be a chance of light fog or drizzle in some areas. Winds will be from the southwest. Overnight lows tonight will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s. On Sunday skies will be clear to partly cloudy with temperatures ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s and moderate northwest winds across the region. Conditions will be dry. Sunday night lows will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s.

 

 

Trajectory weather: Today, the air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east over southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. Sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region with temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. Conditions at the source populations are favorable for pollen release. On Sunday, trajectories move to the southeast over east Texas on moderate northwest winds. Trajectories show poor characteristics for downwind travel of pollen. Conditions at the source area will be continue to be mild with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and clear to partly cloudy skies with northwest winds.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today and tomorrow *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny to partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures will occur today and tomorrow. Winds will shift from the west to the northwest as a weak frontal system moves through the region. Pollen released today will travel to the east for a moderate to high threat for southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas. Tomorrow’s trajectories travel to east Texas but most of the pollen will remain close to the source area with poor transport conditions.

 

 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

SATURDAY

 

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State UniversityFresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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