The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, Jan 16. TX/OK: The Arctic high continues to push southeast moving out of the region. Winds will gradually return to southerly although temperatures will still be below normal today. In Oklahoma, highs will range from the mid 30s to 40 degrees under clear to partly cloudy skies and light to moderate southerly winds. In Texas, cloud cover will keep the temperatures in the 40s through most of central Texas with a chance of spotty drizzle during the day. Winds in Texas will gradually shift from easterly to southerly by evening. Overnight lows will be much warmer than last night with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the north to the low 40s in the south. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to warm up with highs in the mid 50s in Oklahoma and upper 50s to low 60s in Texas. Winds will be from the southwest with clear skies in Oklahoma and cloudy skies in Texas. A chance of light drizzle continues in central Texas. Winds will gradually shift to northwesterly late tomorrow as a weak cold front moves in to the region.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the ArbuckleMountains to the northeast over eastern Oklahoma and Missouri on southerly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind the air-mass moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures will occur at the source site today with highs only reaching 40 after an overnight low of 17. Temperatures should remain above freezing tonight with a warm-up tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today ***unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Temperatures are forecast to just reach 40 degrees today which will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release making for unfavorable conditions.   In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel. With cold, dry conditions little release is expected and therefore a low threat exists for downwind travel. Temperatures should reach the mid 50s tomorrow which will be more favorable for pollen release and increase the risk for pollen exposure.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State UniversityFresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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