The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, Jan 15. TX/OK: Cold air has settled over the Southern Plains this morning with low temperatures ranging from the single digits and lower teens in northern Oklahoma to the lower 20s in western North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Morning temperatures in central and southern Texas are more moderate. Northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph combined with the cold temperatures resulted in wind chill values ranging from near zero in far northern Oklahoma...to the teens in western North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Intermittent light snow will continue across portions of northern into central Oklahoma. Highs today will be in the low 20s in northern and central Oklahoma to the low 30s in southern Oklahoma. In Texas temperatures will range from the low 40s in the north to the mid 50s in the south. Skies will range from clear to mostly cloudy with moderate to strong northeast winds throughout the region. Overnight lows will be in the single digits in northern Oklahoma to the low 30s in southern Texas. Temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s throughout the region with clear to partly cloudy skies and the return of southerly winds to most of the region.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southwest and then curve back to the northeast. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into thearea.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving close to the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the source area in the Arbuckles but low temperatures occur today with below freezing conditions expected again overnight.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Below freezing temperatures will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release making for unfavorable conditions.  Cold temperatures will occur tonight and a bit of warming is expected tomorrow.  With cold, dry conditions little release is expected.

 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State UniversityFresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]

 

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