Deaths per 100,000

Deaths per 100,000 Registered Vehicles

Last update: August 22, 2002

Source: Insurance Institue for Highway Safety

After hitting an all time high of 91, the number of deaths per 100,000 registered motorcycles in U.S. had been declining until 1997 when it hit an all time low of 49, but since then it has started trending up, and the number for the year 2000 is 66. It would be interesting to see the number for the year 2001.

Are there possible causes for this recent trend or is it just due to random fluctuation?

First, let's make some observations.

Observations

	Motorcycles	Passenger Cars	Comment
Average 1975-2000	69.85	20.65	This is the average of all numbers from 1975 to 2000.
Median 1975-2000	70.50	20.00	This is the median of all numbers from 1975 to 2000. The median is the number in the middle of a set of numbers. Half the numbers have values that are greater than the median and half have values that are less.
Difference: Average vs. 2000	-5.51%	-22.53%	This is the percentage of the difference between the average and the number from the year 2000. Passenger cars' difference of fatality rate for the year 2000 is substantially more than that of motorcycles.
Difference: Median vs. 2000	-6.38%	-20.00%	This is the percentage of the difference between the median and the number from the year 2000. Passenger cars' difference of fatality rate for the year 2000 is substantially more than that of motorcycles.
Change: 1975 vs. 2000	4.76%	-42.86%	This is the percentage of the change from the year 1975 to the year 2000. During this period, passenger cars' fatality rate dropped substantially more than that of motorcycles.
Change: 1978 vs. 1997	-45.15%	-33.33%	This is the percentage of the change from the year 1978 to the year 1997. This is the period between the years in which the motorcycle fatality rate hit an all-time high of 91 in 1978 and an all-time low of 49 in 1997. During this period, motorcycles' fatality rate dropped significantly more than that of passenger cars'.
Change: 1978 vs. 2000	-27.47%	-40.74%	This is the percentage of the change from the year 1978 to the year 2000. This is the period between the year in which the motorcycle fatality rate hit an all-time high of 91 and the latest year for which I found a fatality rate. During this period, passenger cars' fatality rate dropped significantly more than that of motorcycles

Conclusions

The fatality rate for passenger cars has steadily dropped from 1975 to 2000.
The fatality rate for motorcycles was dropping substantially from 1979 to 1997; however, the increase from 1998 to 2000 has resulted in making the fatality rate in 2000 higher than that of 1975. It remains to be seen whether the increase from 1998 is an aberration or not.
Since, generally speaking, the trend has been down for both passenger cars and motorcycles, the MSF's safety programs don't seem to have been the major contributing factor in reducing the motorcycles' fatality rate from 1979 to 1997.

Why the Fatality Rates Have Changed the Way They Have

The following is my initial thought on why the fatality rates for both motorcycles and passenger cars have changed the way they have:

The rise of motorcycles' fatality rate from 1975 to 1978 may be due to the time needed for the riders of the time to adjust to the tremendous leap in power and performance which came with the group of bikes called "superbikes." The first of the group was Honda's CB750 which was introduced in 1969, and many other similar models were introduced in subsequent years.
The decline of motorcycles' fatality rate from 1979 to 1997 may be due to that the riders got used to the more powerful bikes and also the bikes themselves got better in traction and breaking power with the improvement in tire design/compound and more use of disk brakes instead of drum brakes which are known to be "grabby."
The rise of motorcycles' fatality rate from 1998 to 2000 may be partially due to another performance leap seen in newer sportbikes and the popularity of bikes with bigger engines. Again, many riders may be having difficulty coping with additional power of newer sportbikes and bikes with bigger engines.
The rise of motorcycles' fatality rate from 1998 to 2000 may be partially due to increase in the number of older people joining the riders' pool. Older people have, in general, reflex worse than that of young people. To me, poorer reflex and a late start seem to be a bad combination for a new rider. For statistics on older riders, see "Younger Riders, Read This!" at my web site.
The biggest factor for the drop of motorcycles' fatality rate from 1979 to 1997 and also the drop of passenger cars' fatality rate may be due to the public's increased awareness of and intolerance towards driving and riding under the influence of alcohol. The year 1980 is the year MADD (Mothers Against Drunk Driving) was established. In 1986, the state of California passed a legislation adopting the BAC (Blood Alcohol Concentration) test. Probably other states did a similar thing around the same time. Until that time, people who were accused of drunk driving had some chance of defending themselves because determination of their being drunk was subjective and open for questioning in court; however, the BAC test eliminated subjectivity completely. Perhaps, more people got aware of the likelihood of being found guilty of drunk driving if they got caught and started refraining from driving under the influence of alcohol.

There Could Be an Even Bigger Factor...

The above represents my initial thought on why the fatality rates for motorcycles and passenger cars have changed the way they have in the 1975-2000 period. While looking at other statistics, I have noticed that there may be an even bigger factor which made the rates change the way they have in the period. To see the finding, read the comment in "Registered Motorcycles, Fatalities, Fatality Rates, VMTs".

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