Dear Friends,

Who will win? Who will win?  This is the distraction that has infected
pollsters, the media and popular discourse as we begin to count who has won
the October 16 Jamaican  elections.

We are inundated with TV images of  huge crowds at party meetings -- bused
in at party expense no doubt. People are decked out in party T shirts – paid
for by the party no doubt.  We hear stories about the buying of votes. The
currency is not only  money but goats, chickens, building material and even
cars.

The people ring bells and punch the air with their  fists. They dance and
cheer to the rhetoric coming from the podium – "don't stop the progress,"
(PNP)  or "let's make the change" (JLP).  The whole thing seems like a
carnival, and would be all right were it not for fact that  this is a
spectacle where people are  participating in their own political enslavement.

The media collaborate in making the whole thing seem profound by organizing
stilted, sterile debates between candidates. Would-be contenders for a seat
in parliament  tell  us what they intend to do for the people–most of it not
very convincing. The word "I" is  used  so often it is clear that there is no
independent role for the people. They are viewed as children and there is no
part for them in the governance process.

These elections, the crowning achievement of Jamaican democracy, are
without a doubt shallow, oppressive (quite a few people have been killed,
maimed and burnt out of their homes) and deceptive even though the Electoral
Advisory Commission assures us that this will be the fairest election yet and
Jimmy Carter is already here to prove it to us.

The silent issue in the election debates is a lack of consideration of how
external forces (read the world market/imperialism /globalization) limit and
dominate our economic possibilities.  With government and opposition  having
bought into the finality of  globalization, no connection is being made
between the country's historical inability to accumulate capital and the
inevitable, stultifying nature of the debt burden.

Yes, as the JLP has charged,  the PNP has dramatically  increased the debt
burden but so did the JLP during its time in power in the 1980s. The question
not being addressed is  the reason for the high propensity to borrow
regardless of which party is in power. No one wishes to address the fact that
external dependency (a legacy of colonialism -- being a primary commodity
producer)  facilitates  massive transfer of resources to our developed
international trading partners resulting in poverty and underdevelopment.

Bruce Golding (last minute returnee to the JLP)  is promising fiscal
responsibility.  Seaga is proposing the independence of the Bank of Jamaica
and placing a limit on the ability of the government to borrow money. Taken
to its logical conclusion the Seaga/Golding nexus is taking us right back to
their fiscal conservatism of the 1980s (i.e. structural adjustment)  which
made the JLP an unpopular government in less than three years. The PNP is not
in disagreement with this either, for them it is only a matter of political
timing. They wish to avoid another 1999 gas price riot.

So whether there is runaway borrowing (which means that revenue is not
forthcoming to take care of basic social services) or fiscal conservatism
("belt tightening" in popular parlance)  there are no gains for the people
since none of these approaches address the structural problems of a dependent
economy.

The PNP promises to "grow"  the economy and Seaga's claim that there will
be a rush of investment after a JLP victory are just that – election promises
and  hype. Such promises are not capable of being  demonstrated in terms of
the reality of a depressed world economy.  An extreme  example of this kind
of hype is the JLP promise to build 10,000 hotel rooms over a seven-year
period at a time when hotel occupancy is below 50% and the tourist industry
is on the verge of collapse.

Apart from this rather curious notion that businessmen invest according to
who is in power rather than on the basis of profitability, it is alarming
that the parties are hellbent on spending scarce resources on the further
development of  a tourist industry which has a marginal impact on employment
and revenue and creates very limited linkages with the rest of the economy.
The future of tourism clearly requires a long overdue discussion among the
people.

None of the parties has provided any answer to a 25% real unemployment
rate. This structural unemployment problem is undoubtedly the reason why both
parties refuse to entertain reform of a brutal and corrupt police force. It
is apparent that  they intend to continue using brutal police  methods to
contain and intimidate the population and to suppress democratic aspirations.
Make no mistake that is what garrison politics and election violence is all
about.

The JLP and the PNP  make much about a Charter of Rights being discussed in
parliament. The truth, however, is that unless  this Charter of Rights
guarantees the right to free education up to tertiary level, guarantees free
health care, and guarantees the right to a job, it is just that – hype. As
poor as Cuba is these are rights guaranteed by the constitution.

Both parties are cognizant that this so-called Westminster democratic
system where people are consulted once every five years is thoroughly
undemocratic and oppressive.  An American executive style presidency (as is
being proposed by Bruce Golding) will not solve the problem either. We need
only look at the way George Bush has used his tremendous powers to bully the
US Congress into giving him the authority  to declare war on the Iraqi people
and to destabilize the world.  Nor will the establishment of a Caribbean
Court of Justice, regardless of its nationalistic merits, make justice more
available to the poor who can hardly afford representation at the most basic
level of the criminal justice system.

After the elections  are over the only way the people will be able to
attract attention to the problems that face them is to block the roads and
burn tires in the streets. This was almost a daily occurrence under the past
PNP administration and  no doubt will continue under the next administration
no matter who forms the government.

As a minimum we need a new democracy where the people will be involved in
all levels of governance and decision making whether it be deciding on the
priorities of the budget, addressing the problem of police brutality or
making decisions about the environmental crisis which faces us, etc. The
people need to be involved in decision making at the shop floor level, in the
offices and in the communities.  Self-governance is the objective.

Until we achieve this kind of democracy people will continue to be killed
because of their party preference, they will continue to live in subhuman
housing conditions, illiteracy will continue to flourish, proper health care
will be denied to the poor, and the rich will continue to get richer and the
police will continue to kill with impunity.

An election is being  held on October 16 to determine which section of the
middle class will govern us for the next five years but the real decisions
about Jamaica's future have still to be settled.

Lloyd D'Aguilar