Article: Egypt: A Precarious Ally

Summary

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has called for the United Nations to sponsor a conference on terrorism, saying it is too early for a U.S.-led anti-terrorism alliance. Though it is a key Washington ally in the Middle East, Egypt is caught between an entrenched fundamentalist movement and the geopolitical benefits of ties with the United States and Israel. Mubarak hopes to mitigate any U.S. retaliation for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks because American strikes against Islamic terrorists and the nations that harbor them could endanger his government.

Analysis

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said on Sept. 17 that it is too early to build an alliance against terrorism and the United States should weigh heavily any military options that might result in the deaths of innocent civilians, Reuters reported.

Mubarak's comments, which were meant to temper any U.S. retaliation against Afghanistan, contrast sharply with the stances taken by much of the Arab world. The reason is simple: A well-organized and deeply rooted fundamentalist movement strongly opposes Egypt's relations with Israel and the United States, and any U.S. war against Muslims could create an opportunity for Mubarak's rivals to exploit. In the coming weeks, the Egyptian government may once again crack down on Islamic fundamentalists.

Egypt's position is striking in comparison with those of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria -- countries that have considerably fewer ties to the United States but which all have strongly condemned the Sept. 11 assaults and offered to aid an international coalition fighting terrorism.

U.S. strikes against Afghanistan and a drawn-out U.S. war against Islamic terrorists could radicalize Egypt's 66 million people. And this represents the greatest threat to pro-Western and religiously moderate Arab regimes in the Middle East. Gaining support from Egypt, the leading moderate Arab regime, is vital for U.S. influence in the region.

But not all Egyptians support the government's relationship with Washington. For example, the Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928, is Egypt's oldest, most pervasive and well-organized fundamentalist group. The organization's members include business leaders, diplomats, doctors, lawyers, politicians and professors. Despite its illegal status and periodic government crackdowns, the Brotherhood enjoys broad popular support. In fact, the movement won 17 of 444 elected seats in the People's Assembly last fall. Although still a minor voice, the Brotherhood now has the largest single opposition bloc in parliament.

The Brotherhood poses a unique threat to Mubarak because it operates within the political system but at the same time coordinates efforts with more radical groups. The group has networks throughout the Muslim world and ties to a variety of fundamentalist militant groups, including the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya, the group held responsible for the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center. Egyptians have ties to Osama bin Laden's Al-Qa'ida as well.

Now as Tel Aviv exploits the recent suicide hijackings in the United States to clamp down on the Palestinian intifada and Washington declares war against Islamic terrorists, Egypt's fundamentalists may seek to rally the public against Mubarak.

Since the Palestinian intifada began last year, the Egyptian government has walked a narrow line between diplomatic relations with Israel and the United States on the one hand and internal dissent on the other. It is common knowledge that the United States props up Mubarak's government. For instance, Washington gives $1.3 billion in military aid annually to Egypt and another $655 million in economic support, Arabic News reported.

At the same time, Israel is exploiting the United States' heightened fear of terrorism for all it is worth, leaving Mubarak in a difficult position. The events of Sept. 11 immediately altered the dynamic in Israel, giving Tel Aviv virtual carte blanche in combating the Palestinians. Israel's exploitation of the situation will make it difficult for Egypt to maintain its peace treaty with the Jewish state. The treaty, already unpopular with the Egyptian public, will become a key weapon for fundamentalists seeking to oust Mubarak.

Mubarak has said Egypt would prefer to a U.N. conference on anti-terrorism to a military coalition. His words are meant to assuage domestic opposition and remind Washington of his tenuous position.

The Egyptian government is capable of containing domestic opposition. The fact that Mubarak has survived several assassination attempts shows the government's intelligence services have penetrated most of the more radical groups. Mubarak can and likely will scrutinize the armed services and the government, purging those whose loyalty is questionable.

Meanwhile, Cairo is likely gearing up to counter a mobilized opposition. This will include clamping down once again on fundamentalist groups -- a pattern repeated every few years in Egypt. This in turn could cause a short, sharp downturn in Egypt's economy. More important, it could prompt a backlash that would force Mubarak to choose between relations with the United States and Israel or political survival.

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