Article: China - U.S. Relationship Redefined<

Summary

Washington's newly declared war on terrorism is moving beyond the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia to an expanding breeding ground for Islamic militants: Southeast Asia. Beijing, which has long competed with Washington for influence there, is also offering full support to international counterterrorism efforts. This creates an opportunity for cooperative efforts among Southeast Asian nations, China and the United States -- refocusing Washington-Beijing relations toward collaboration and allowing Beijing time to bolster its own economy, social stability and military forces.

Analysis

Washington's newly declared war on terrorism is moving beyond the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia to Southeast Asia, a growing breeding ground for Islamic militants. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines have all pledged support to international counterterrorism efforts, particularly as these countries themselves struggle with the effects of rising Islamic militancy.

China, too, is offering to help tackle terrorism and fundamentalism in Southeast Asia. This creates an opportunity for collaboration between Washington and Beijing, traditional competitors for political and economic influence in Southeast Asia. Such cooperation may help to reshape Sino-U.S. relations -- redefining China as a regional partner rather than a rival -- and allowing Beijing time to bolster its military, economy and social stability.

Southeast Asia will once again play a prominent role in Washington's new war, as it did in the battle against Communism and the war on drugs. Islamic militancy is not new in the region, but concern was growing among governments even before the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad recently warned of an extremist plot to overthrow governments in Kuala Lumpur, Manila and Jakarta and to establish a union of Islamic states.

Mahathir's warning did not fall on deaf ears. Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri and Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo both met with Mahathir in August and shared his concern -- particularly as both Megawati and Arroyo are new presidents facing threats from extremists at home. Singapore, too, joined Kuala Lumpur in calling for regional caution and cooperation to stem the spread of militant fundamentalist movements.

These nations, plus Thailand, have all expressed condolences to the United States and offered to support international efforts to combat terrorism. In Thailand, daily newspaper The Nation cited a police director general as saying the Thai Royal Police have been in touch with the FBI and checked immigration records for the names of 15 Yemeni and Saudi nationals supplied by the FBI. On Sept. 13, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Thailand was a possible transit route for potential terrorists and their supporters, according to The Nation.

Thaksin's concerns are justified: Many of Southeast Asia's Islamic fundamentalist and militant groups appear to be linked both to each other and to groups in North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. The militant Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines, for example, has roots in Libya and more recently has been linked to Egyptian militants, including those accused of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. The Abu Sayyaf, which currently holds American and Filipino hostages, also has links to larger Islamic militant movements in the Philippines, and the Philippine military believes it receives supplies and training from groups in Indonesia and Malaysia.

After the attacks in the United States, Philippine police -- in association with an American "technician" -- searched a hotel room opposite the U.S. embassy in Manila where three Omanis stayed earlier in the week, according to the Philippine Daily Inquirer. Philippine police have stepped up security alerts at airports and other entry points "in anticipation of a possible spillover" of the attacks on Washington, according to a police official.

Indonesia and Malaysia have also increased security, and the Indonesian military has suggested training for special anti-terrorist units.

As these nations look to Washington for support in their own fights against regional militant and terrorist threats, China is also offering assistance. Chinese President Jiang Zemin and visiting Singapore President S.R. Nathan discussed mutual counterterrorism efforts Sept. 13, with Nathan offering Singapore's close cooperation with China on the matter.

China's involvement will not be limited to Singapore, where the majority of the population is ethnic Chinese. Beijing is constantly looking for ways to increase its presence and influence in Southeast Asia; U.S. involvement will only accelerate this process. Recently, China has increased joint anti-drug efforts with Thailand, Laos and Myanmar, and this can easily be expanded to cover anti-terrorism efforts as well. Further, Beijing harbors fears that Islamic extremism could spread to China, undermining the government's authority.

For the Chinese government, the attack on the United States both exemplified the potential dangers of low-tech terrorist capabilities and presented a potential to redefine Washington's standing as the sole, unopposable, hegemonic world power.

Beijing's activities in Southeast Asia will be termed mutual and cooperative -- with the United States as well as with Asian nations. This offers a unique opportunity for Chinese and U.S. intelligence cooperation. This will not only redefine China as a partner rather than competitor to the United States but also give it valuable insight into U.S. operations and capabilities in Southeast Asia.

In the longer term, Washington's focus on terrorist and Islamic militant threats puts fears of an expansionist China on the back burner -- or at least reassigns them to a lower priority. Beijing will use this time to improve China's economic status while strengthening political and social controls throughout the nation. China will also use the opportunity of a temporary lull in animosity to enhance its military technology and capabilities.

But that is only the latest in a wave of corruption accusations that have weakened the AWS government.

Buzek became prime minister with record popular support and a mandate for public sector reform when the AWS coalition defeated the incumbent Democratic Left Alliance in general elections four years ago.

But the government has since become a victim of its own reform policies. Voters turned on Buzek after the government overhauled the administrative, education, social security and health sectors in early 1999. The reforms led to chaos in the social security and health care systems, and Buzek's popularity quickly plummeted.

Now, Buzek's Cabinet appears to be crumbling. In June, Buzek squared off against one of Poland's most popular politicians, Justice Minister Lech Kaczynski. Buzek took the side of the State Intelligence Service in a standoff with Kaczynski's prosecutor's office over the controversial detention of an intelligence service officer, finally dismissing Kaczynski on July 4.

The dismissal led to the resignation of another Cabinet member, Culture and National Heritage Minister Kazimierz Ujazdowski, a political ally of Kaczynski. Both men are now preparing to run in the general election under the banner of the newly formed Right Alliance. They also have accused Buzek and his government of corruption and incompetence.

A rapid succession of scandals has given their accusations greater credence. On July 18, Buzek was forced to sack another Cabinet member, Communications Minister Tomasz Szyszko, after the National Auditing Office found irregularities with the ministry's handling of third-generation mobile telecommunications licenses. Though the office has not elaborated on the irregularities, Deutsche Presse-Agentur quoted a ministry spokesman as saying they may have cost the government as much as $4 billion.

On another front, Buzek also is struggling with Poland's economy. Unemployment jumped from an already high 16 percent in the fourth quarter of 2000 to 18.2 percent in the first quarter of 2001, according to Poland's Main Statistical Office.

Meanwhile, after growing at a steady pace of 4 percent since 1997, GDP growth is expected to slow considerably this year as the slowdown in Germany and the rest of Western Europe reduces demand for Polish exports. Likewise, high interest rates designed to slash Poland's 6 percent inflation rate are squeezing domestic demand.

The opposition Democratic Left Alliance will seize on the scandals and a weakening Polish economy to regain power in September's general election. Two separate polls from early July show the SLD-Labor Union alliance with between 44 percent and 51 percent voter support nationwide, according to Radio Free Europe.

The anticipated electoral defeat of the AWS appears not only certain but also very likely catastrophic. The latest survey by OBOP, a Polish center for public opinion research, showed the AWS with a mere 6 percent of national support, Agence France-Presse reported on July 19. If such projections hold, Buzek's coalition could fail to reach the minimum 8 percent ballot threshold, essentially spelling the end of it altogether.

The election could also see two new parties, conservative Right Alliance and centrist CivicPlatform, look to overtake the AWS. The latest OBOP poll gave the CivicPlatform 16 percent national support and the Right Alliance 7 percent.

The Warsaw Voice reported on Aug. 7 that these and other centrist and right-wing groups are attempting to mount a coordinated, last-minute challenge to the SLD, calling their effort the Senate 2001 Bloc. The pragmatic grouping is unlikely to alter the eventual outcome of the election.

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(c)2001 Strategic Forecasting L.L.C.