Although moderate Arab regimes have condemned the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, popular opinion among some Arab citizens appears decidedly less sympathetic. A sustained anti-terror campaign by the United States will provoke further opposition -- putting leaders in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in a difficult position.

Analysis

The Bush administration has taken a tough stance in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Secretary of State Colin Powell promised the United States will respond "as if it is a war."

Every Arab head of state except Saddam Hussein expressed sympathy and regret about the attacks. Moderate regimes such as those in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia also condemned the attack itself, but popular sentiments even within those countries are not always in line with the political rhetoric. These relatively moderate regimes will come under increasing strain in the coming months. Each nation's leaders, who already face domestic unrest, will have to find a way to steer a middle course between U.S. demands and popular opinion.

Washington will push its Arab allies to provide diplomatic support, intelligence and perhaps even military support -- such as overflight clearances or temporary basing agreements -- for its retaliatory operations. The U.S. campaign will likely take months or years and further stoke anti-American sentiment in Arab countries.

In some cases, there is a difference between what Arab leaders say and what their populations think. Reuters reported street celebrations among Palestinians in Lebanon after the attacks in New York City. Similar events occurred in Amman, the Jordanian capital. Scattered reports suggest similar responses in Egypt.

The split between moderate political leaders and radical citizens in several countries is nothing new. Fundamentalist Islamic groups have plagued Egypt for decades. In fact, President Hosni Mubarak has escaped at least 10 assassination attempts since his 1981 inauguration. Meanwhile, Jordan's tiny population is at least half Palestinian -- a persistent threat to the regime. And Saudi Arabia faces scattered opposition as well, a situation that has already forced the government to adopt a more critical stance on U.S. policies.

Economies in all three nations are fragile and cannot support increasing numbers of jobseekers that enter the workforce every year.

Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have historically been capable of combatting grassroots opposition, but now outside support for opposition movements poses a further threat. Accused terrorist Osama bin Laden is gaining enormous credibility for his perceived role in the World Trade Center attacks. That credibility can translate into tangible support for his organization as well as more fertile recruiting grounds. Even if bin Laden does not run operations against moderate Arab regimes, his fame and ethos are rallying points for popular opposition.

Hussein, too, is being praised in some quarters for his role as the only Arab head of state to consistently oppose the United States and Israel while supporting Palestinians. This is especially worrisome to Jordan, which shares its eastern border with Iraq.