| VESALIUS COLLEGE SPRING 2001 Senior Seminar POL 392 INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT ANALYSIS Professor: Jean-Sébastien Rioux Office: Triomflaan 36, 2nd floor; 629-3896 Email: [email protected] Office Hours: Monday, Tuesday & Wed, 10:00-12:00 (or exceptionally by appointment) Course objectives This is a senior seminar, the purpose of which is to prepare students for further independent research by exploring, in depth, a political science topic chosen by the instructor. The students are expected to use and apply the knowledge and skills they have acquired during their university education to produce a high quality seminar paper at the end of the semester. Course theme I have chosen to explore the phenomenon of international conflict, focusing specifically on theories and methodologies that illuminate our understanding of conflict, crisis, and war in the global political system. Among other topics, we will explore: methodological and epistemological issues in the study of conflict; factors that account for the initiation of conflict; crisis escalation; and the outbreak of war, all from a social-scientific perspective. At the end of the course students are expected to have a solid understanding of the theories and methodologies that are employed to study international conflict, and will have produced a substantial research paper using this knowledge. Students will be better prepared either to undertake graduate studies, or to enter into a professional position where research and writing skills are necessary (which is to say, most of them). The pre-requisites for this class are to have Senior standing, and SOC 203 & 204 or POL 212. Required readings There is a required textbook and reader for this seminar: -- Book: Cashman, Greg. What Causes War? An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict. Lexington Books (1993, reprinted 2000). ISBN: 0-7391-0112-9 -- Reader: POL 392 reader for International Conflict Analysis Teaching methodology This class meets Wednesdays from 13:30 to 16:30 in 4F-104. There will be some traditional lectures, but the course is a seminar so about 40% of class time focuses on developing analytical and public speaking skill by having students act as seminar leaders and discussants. Each student will be required to act as seminar leader twice during the semester, with the others acting as discussants. Then, as the progress on the research papers progresses, we will then begin with the presentations of each student’s work in progress. The final grade will be computed as follows: - Class participation, 10% -- Format: class attendance and contribution to discussions - Reading summaries (5), 25% -- Format: quality of the summaries and analysis - Draft #1, 10% -- Format: 500-words on topic & preliminary annotated bib. - Draft #2, 15% --Format: 1500-word draft & annotated bibliography - Research paper, 40% -- Format: 3000 words; more fully described below As these assignments add up to the final research product, all assignments must be completed for the student to pass the course. Late penalties apply for the assignments; however, I will not accept any late term essays. The course will have two “parts”. During the first half of the semester, there is the “seminar leadership” portion of the course, meaning that the professor will draw lots on when students will be seminar leaders. A list of discussion points will be handed out to all students the week before, and the appointed seminar leader will be responsible for preparing a summary and critique of the readings. This will be given to the professor as well as the other students by 12:00 noon on the Friday before the class meeting so that the document can serve as the basis for discussion during the seminar. The other students will be evaluated on their participation in the discussions (your Class Participation). In the second part of the semester, having acquired familiarity with some of the literature, we will begin the “research presentation” portion of the course. Students will choose a topic related to international conflict, and through the assignments listed above, will have the opportunity to present their work-in- progress to their peers and having it critiqued along the way in a constructive manner. During Week 14 students will present their final draft, with another student appointed as “reader” to offer constructive criticism. Students can then have a week to make changes before handing in the final version on Tuesday May 4th. The due dates for the course assignments are listed in the syllabus, but here they are again in chronological order: - Research paper draft #1: Friday, March 16th at 12:00 noon (Week 10) - Reading summaries: You must hand-in five (5) by Wednesday, March 21st (Week 11) - Research paper draft #2: Friday, April 20th at 12:00 noon (Week 13) - Term essay (FINAL): Friday, May 4th at 12:00 noon (Week 15) The term paper will be evaluated in the following manner: logical structure of the paper (10%); extent of research (20%); quality of hypotheses and method of evaluation (50%); presentation (5%); language & spelling (5%) and quality of documentation (10%). Your cooperation in this is very important. We will be a very small group and missing classes of coming to class without having read the articles and chapters not only will be noticed (by me and your colleagues), but will actually disrupt the flow of the seminar. Therefore, please take note that students who miss three classes fail the course. The Vesalius College administration supports professors with rigid attendance policies. Course Lecture and Reading Schedule DATE LECTURE / SEMINAR TOPIC 10 January Week 1: “The scientific method of inquiry and conflict analysis.” Welcome & introduction; distribution and reading of the syllabus. Description of the scientific method of enquiry and how to formulate hypotheses about conflict behavior. Discussion of the process of conducting research, and the quantitative and qualitative methodologies in the scientific study of conflict, setting the stage for the readings. Required readings: -- Cashman, Greg. 1993. What Causes War? An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict. Landham, MD: Lexington. Pages. 1-13. (Henceforth referred to as the Textbook.) -- Nicholson, Michael. 1992. Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 11-41. -- King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane and Sidney Verba. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Chapter 1, pages 3-33. Suggested readings: -- Most, Benjamin, and Harvey Starr. 1989. Inquiry, Logic and International Politics. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press. 17 January Week 2: “The ontology of conflict.” In this session we examine the various definitions of the nature of conflict and the levels of analysis we can employ to study conflict. The seminar session will focus student’s attention to variety of explanations as to the causes of conflict. Required readings: -- Maoz, Zeev. 1990. Paradoxes of war: on the art of national self-entrapment. Boston : Unwin Hyman. Pages 1-27. -- Brecher, Michael, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. 1997. A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 1-38. -- Vasquez, John A. 1993. The War Puzzle. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 51-85. Suggested readings: -- Waltz, Kenneth. 1959. Man, the State and War. New York: Colombia University Press. -- Singer, J. David. 1969. “The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations.” In International Politics and Foreign Policy, ed. James N. Rosenau. New York: The Free Press. -- Hensel, Paul. 1999. “Issues Correlates of War: Project Description.” Online document available at http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~phehsel/icow.html#desc 24 January Week 3: “First image theories of conflict.” The theories of conflict within the first level of analysis assume that conflict originates due to human nature itself. Root causes are said to be biological, psychological, or even spiritual (the ‘evil nature’ of Man). Required readings: -- Textbook, pages 14-76 (Chapters 2 & 3). Suggested readings: -- Stein, Janice Gross. 1989. “The Misperception of Threat.” In Robert O. Matthews, Arthur G. Rubinoff and Janice Gross Stein, eds., International Conflict and Conflict Management 2nd edition. Scarborough (Ontario): Prentice-Hall. Pages 30-44. -- Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. -- Jervis, Robert. 1978. "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma." World Politics 30: 167-214. 31 January Week 4: “The state and domestic sources of conflict.” Many root causes of conflict are found in the nature of the state (or society) itself. We focus on how domestic politics affect the war-proneness of states. Required readings: -- Textbook, pages 124–159 (Chapter 5). Suggested readings: -- Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 46-67 (Chapter 3). -- Russett, Bruce, and Thomas W. Graham. 1993. “Public Opinion and National Security Policy: Relationships and Impacts.” In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 239-257. -- Levy, Jack S. 1993. “The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique.” In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 239-257. -- Choucri, Nazli, and Robert C. North. 1993. “Lateral Pressure in International Relations: Concept and Theory.” In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 289-326. -- Ray, James Lee. 1993. “Wars Between Democracies: Rare, or Nonexistent?” International Interactions 18 (3): 251-276.Layne, Christopher. 1994. “Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace.” International Security 9 (2): 5-49. -- Mansfield, Edward D., and Jack Snyder. 1995. “Democratization and War.” Foreign Affairs 74: 79-97. -- Levy, Jack S. 1988. "Domestic Politics and War." Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18: 653-674. -- James, Patrick, and John R. Oneal. 1991. "The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force." Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 307-332. 7 February Week 5: “Decision making and conflict escalation.” Notwithstanding last week’s lecture on the first image theories of conflict, conflicts can arise and escalate because of the decision making process itself. We focused last week on how domestic politics affect foreign policy behavior; today we examine how governmental decision-making processes can lead to war. Required readings: -- Textbook, pages 77- 123 (Chapter 4). Suggested readings: -- Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1980. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press. -- Levy, Jack S. 1992. “Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications & Analytical Problems.” Political Psychology 13(2): 283-310. -- Allison, Graham T. 1989 [1971]. “The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis.” In Robert O. Matthews, Arthur G. Rubinoff and Janice Gross Stein, eds., International Conflict and Conflict Management 2nd edition. Scarborough (ON): Prentice-Hall (Pages 215-229).Brecher, Michael. 1977. "Toward a Theory of International Crisis Behavior." International Studies Quarterly 21: 39-74. -- Leng, Russell J. 1993. Interstate Crisis Behavior, 1816-1980: Realism Versus Reciprocity. New York: Cambridge University Press. 14 February Week 6: “Classical and systemic theories of war.” The field of international relations really took off after WWII, with the classic works of people such as Hans Morgenthau, Quincy Wright and Karl Deutsch. We will examine theories of balance-of-power and alliance politics. Required readings: -- Textbook, pages 224-278 (Chapters 8 & 9). Suggested readings: -- James, Patrick. 1995. “Structural Realism and the Causes of War.” Mershon International Studies Review 39(2): 181-208. -- Bremer, Stuart A. 1980. "National Capabilities and War Proneness." In The Correlates of War: II, ed. J. David Singer. New York: Free Press. -- Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 21 February NO CLASS: ATTENDING THE ISA CONFERENCE IN CHICAGO ? Special activity: spend the 3 hours in the library doing research. 28 February Week 8: “Classical and systemic theories of war II.” Here we examine some of the findings of the Correlates of War (COW) project, especially pertaining to “dangerous dyads” and arms races. Required readings: -- Textbook, pages 160-223 (Chapters 6 & 7). Suggested readings: -- Bremer, Stuart A. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(2): 309-341. -- Gochman, Charles S. and Zeev Maoz. 1984. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976." Journal of Conflict Resolution 28: 585-615. -- Sabrosky, Alan Ned (ed.) 1985. Polarity and war: the changing structure of international conflict. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. -- Huth, Paul. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven: Yale University Press. 7 March Week 9: “Civil & Ethnic conflict.” It is conventional wisdom that the end of the cold war has brought an increase in intrastate conflicts, particularly in states with multiple cleavages—among which we tend to find ethnicity. We examine why some ethnic groups to take up arms and the factors that cause some ethnic differences to erupt into full-blown wars. Required readings: -- Stack, John F. Jr. 1997. “The Ethnic Challenge to International Relations Theory.” In Carment, David, and Patrick James (eds.), Wars in the midst of peace: the international politics of ethnic conflict. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. (Pages 11-25.) -- Carment, David, and Patrick James. 1999. “Escalation of Ethnic Conflict: A Survey and Assessment.” Online document also available at: http://www.carleton.ca/~dcarment/home.html Suggested readings: -- Gurr, Ted Robert et. al. Minorities at Risk Project (University of Maryland). Online: http://www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm/mar/. You must register (it’s free), then download and read the Codebook. Some of T.R. Gurr’s publications are downloadable from the Web site and you are encouraged to do so. -- Horowitz, Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press. -- Carment, David. 1993. "The International Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict: Concepts, Indicators and Theory." Journal of Peace Research 30: 137-150. 14 March Week 10: “Peacekeeping, peacemaking and human security.” We will explore the peace research literature and examine the differences between peacekeeping and peace building, as well as the policy literature dealing with the concept of ‘human security.’ Required readings: -- Diehl, Paul. F. 1989. “The Conditions for Success in Peacekeeping Operations.” In Paul F. Diehl, ed., The Politics of International Organizations: Patterns and Insights. Chicago: Dorsey (173-188). -- Hay, Robin. 1999. Peacebuilding During Peace Support Operations: A Survey and Analysis of Recent Missions. Ottawa, Canada: Department of Foreign Affairs. http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/peacebuilding/hay-e.asp -- Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. 2000. Human Security: Safety for People in a Changing World. Ottawa, Canada: Online: http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/foreignp/humansecurity/HumanSecurityBooklet-e.asp Suggested readings: -- Boutros Boutros-Ghali. 1995. An Agenda for Peace. New York: United Nations. (Available on the Web at: http://www.un.org/Docs/SG/agpeace.html. A document titled “An Agenda for Peace-Supplement” is also available on the Web at: http://www.un.org/Docs/SG/agsupp.html). 21 March Week 11: In-class presentation of term papers Students will make a 15-20 minute presentation on their theory & hypotheses. The other students must have read the others’ papers and are expected to critique constructively and offer suggestions. Required readings: -- Other students’ paper proposals. 28 March Week 12: NO CLASS: I AM ATTENDING THE MUN CONFERENCE IN ISTANBUL -- Special Assignment: work on your term papers in the library. 2-16 April NO CLASS: SPRING BREAK 18 April Week 13: “Early warning mechanisms and conflict prevention.” This lecture deals with the rich literature on conflict prevention. The topics include preventative mediation and confidence-building measures. Required readings: -- United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations. Lessons Learned Unit. Comprehensive Report on Lessons Learned from United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM), and Comprehensive Report on Lessons Learned from United Nations Transition Authority in Eastern Slavonia (UNTAES). Both documents are available online at : http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/lessons/ -- Ampleford, Susan. 2000. “Country Indicators for Foreign Policy: Methodological Review.” Ottawa, Canada: discussion paper prepared for the International Development Research Centre. Available online at: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/others/MethodsReview.pdf Suggested readings: -- Norman Patterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University (Canada): “Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project.” Online: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/ 25 April Week 14: In-class presentations of final drafts. Students will make another 15-20 minute presentation on their (revised?) theory & hypotheses, as well as their preliminary conclusions. The other students must have read the others’ papers and are expected to critique constructively and offer suggestions. Required readings: -- Other students’ paper proposals. 2 May Week 15: last class meeting, so what do we know about the causes of international conflict? In this wrap-up session, we will examine what it is that we think we know about the causes of international conflicts and how to prevent them. All the semester’s readings will be used to discuss this issue. Required readings: -- Textbook, pages 279-288 (Conclusion). -- Vasquez, John A. 1993. The War Puzzle. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 292-346. Note: this last section contains the Appendix: “Propositional Summary” that will be useful for discussion. Suggested readings: -- Zinnes, Dina A. 1980. "Three Puzzles in Search of a Researcher: Presidential Address." International Studies Quarterly 24: 315-342. -- Rioux, Jean-Sébastien. 1998. “A Crisis-Based Evaluation of the Democratic Peace Proposition.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 31 (2): 263-283. -- Kugler, Jacek. 1993. “Political Conflict, War, and Peace.” In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association. ? NOTE: term papers are due by Friday, 4 May at 12:00 noon. |
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