Who Will Go Home With Oscar?

by Josh Marks

By the time this issue of the Beachcomber hits newsstands across East Long Beach the WGA and studios should have hammered out a deal to end the protracted writers strike, thus removing any doubts about the Oscar ceremony on Feb. 24. So the big question has now changed from who will show up on the red carpet to who will win the golden statue. Without delay then, here are my Oscar picks in some of the major categories and why they will win.

Best Picture

"Atonement," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood"

Pick: "No Country for Old Men" has been taking a lot of top prizes from critics circles and guilds, including most recently the best feature film at the Producers Guild Awards. However, there will be an Oscar for "There Will Be Blood." Academy voters tend to favor dramatic period pieces and this is an ambitious film with an epic scope.

Directing

Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly;" Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton;" Joel & Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men;" Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood;" Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Pick: Director Julian Schnabel has made a unique film that, despite being in French and about a man with a rare condition, is extremely accessible and every frame is fascinating to watch. While his film isn't as commercially viable as the other nominees, Schnabel should win an Oscar for his unusual and ultimately endearing film.

Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney, "Michael Clayton;" Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood;" Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street;" Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah;" Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis will win an Oscar this year for his furious performance as oil entrepreneur Daniel Plainview in Paul Thomas Anderson's masterful historical drama. The reclusive British thesp doesn't do movies often and when he does he throws everything he has into it. "There Will Be Blood" marks his greatest achievement yet as an actor and is one of the greatest performances in the history of cinema.

Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age;" Julie Christie, "Away from Her;" Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose; " Laura Linney, "The Savages;" Ellen Page, "Juno"

Pick: Veteran British actress Julie Christie has already won an Oscar for 1965's "Darling" and this year she will add another trophy to the mantle for her moving performance as a Canadian wife coping with Alzheimer's disease.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford;" Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men;" Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War;" Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild;" Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Pick: Golden Globe and SAG winner Javier Bardem should make a killing at the Oscars. The Spanish actor plays his hitman character Anton Chigurh to chilling effect. While the sentimental favorite is 82-year-old Hal Holbrook for his touching performance in "Into the Wild" (the oldest male nominee in Academy history), it is Bardem who will likely take the stage at the Kodak Theater.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There;" Ruby Dee, "American Gangster;" Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement;" Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone;" Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Pick: Cate Blanchett has gotten a lot of buzz for her portrayal of a just-gone electric Bob Dylan circa 1965-66 facing a backlash from the folk music crowd and a relentless British press in Todd Haynes' "I'm Not There." She gets Robert Zimmerman down to a tee -- from his peculiar mannerisms to his drug-fueled poetic rants. It is an impressive performance worthy of an Oscar.