70 -    19.04.2005




u  Mapping the Global Future - Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 project

US - National Intelligence Council




12.2004 ... report … considers how global trends in the first decade of the 21st century might influence world events … looks at the contradictions of globalization, the changing geopolitical landscape, challenges to governance, and international security threats. It then goes on to analyze the policy implications of these threats and uncertainties …


Auszüge zu den Stichworten Wasser / Umwelt


Relative Certainties … Environmental and ethical issues … Key UncertaintiesExtent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas ...


S.18 … Over the next 15 years the increasing centrality of ethical issues, old and new, have the potential to divide worldwide publics ... issues include the environment and climate change, privacy, cloning and biotechnology, human rights, international law regulating conflict, and the role of multilateral institutions ... (siehe auch S. S.119)

S. 34 … The trend toward rapid, global diffusion of technology will continue, although the stepped-up technology revolution will not benefit everyone equally ...

New technology applications will foster dramatic improvements in human knowledge and individual well-being. Such benefits include … improve food and potable water production .. will provide new knowledge about environment …

S.51 … Just like China, India may stumble and experience political and economic volatility with pressure on resources — land, water, and energy supplies — intensifying as it modernizes. For example, India will face stark choices as its population increases and its surface and ground water become even more polluted ...

S.52 … Whether China’s rise occurs smoothly is a key uncertainty. In 2003, the RAND Corporation identified and assessed eight major risks to the continued rapid growth of China’s economy over the next decade ...  Water resources and pollution …

S.59 … Renewable energy sources such as hydrogen, solar, and wind energy probably will account for only about 8 percent of the energy supply in 2020. While Russia, China, and India all plan expansions of their nuclear power sector, nuclear power probably will decline globally in absolute terms in the next decade ...

S.76 … There is a strong consensus in the scientific community that the greenhouse effect is real … Policymakers will face a dilemma: an environmental regime based solely on economic incentives will probably not produce needed technological advances because firms will be hesitant to invest in research when there is great uncertainty about potential profits. On the other hand, a regime based on government regulation will tend to be costly and inflexible ...






Water bomb?

"The wars of the 21st Century will be fought over water." Ismail Serageldin, Egyptian academic, former Vice President for Environmental Affairs, World Bank.

Apr 17, 2005 There are more than just political disputes between India and Pakistan The last few months have seen the Pakistan Government making desperate attempts to stall the construction of Baglihar Dam by invoking the Article 9A of the Indus Water Treaty, which deals with settlement of differences and disputes. On January 18, Pakistan took the issue to World Bank, which had earlier mediated the Indus water treaty on September 19, 1960 as it considers the construction of the dam to be a violation of the Indus Water Treaty. But this is just one of the various disputes over water resources between the two countries. There is a dispute on Jhelum River in Jammu and Kashmir, which has been lingering for the last two decades … Some Pakistani commentators have even described the Indus Water Treaty as discriminating against Pakistan and have termed the Baglihar dam as a threat to its economic existence … Political disputes between India and Pakistan have hogged the headlines in the last five decades. But problems like the Baglihar issue show that the dispute over water resources may be no less intractable. It would require the combined intellectual and technical pool of the two countries to diffuse this water bomb before it explodes and vindicates the Serageldin's prediction.



Gorbachev Calls for Global Water Treaty

Apr 15, 2005 — Mikhail Gorbachev is pressing world leaders to adopt a treaty guaranteeing clean water and sanitation for their people, a task he says is more daunting than ending the nuclear arms race during the Cold War. Dwindling water supplies and political resistance have hampered efforts to bring fresh water to poor people around the world, the former Soviet leader said … "We were able to solve the nuclear arms race because of … political will … Today we don't see that political will. But I think it will emerge that leaders will have to address this problem." Gorbachev will call for a first-ever international water treaty during an April 21 keynote address to the U.N. Commission on Sustainable Development. He envisions a binding agreement that makes access to water and basic sanitation a human right, holds nations responsible for providing it, and governs how freshwater resources are managed and shared …



Dämme verringern die Flussfracht

15. Apr 2005    Mehr als die Hälfte der 292 größten Flüsse der Welt werden aufgestaut. Der Mensch verändert mit dem Dammbau nicht nur den Süßwasserzufluss ins Meer, sondern auch die Menge des eingetragenen Sediments ... Anhand der Ergebnisse der Studie sollen zukünftige Entwicklungen der Flusssysteme, etwa durch Klimawandel und steigenden Wasserverbrauch, eingeschätzt werden ...



THE WATERY DISASTER - Has anyone seen any water?

April 15, 2005 The scarcity of water is poised to assume catastrophic proportions for future generations. Yet there is total confusion among policy-makers ... The disease afflicting the water sector has not developed overnight. The signs of distress had been evident since decades, but people remained mesmerised with the thought that being a water-endowed country having adequate water sources, monsoons would bring in the needed water every year. While politicians remained occupied with vote banks, billions of cubic metres of the precious resource got emptied into the sea unutilised year after year during the monsoons … The increasing demand on fresh water has brought up many issues in the water sector: issues of development, equity and sustainability. The problems are not beyond the present state of our knowledge and technology but what is needed is an apex organisation needed to co-ordinate the activities of harnessing and augmenting the available water to optimise its productivity. Presently such a set up does not exist. A plethora of independent governmental institutions both at the national and state levels is presently dealing with the different aspects of water ... Integrated water planning to identify and optimise water and complementary investment is therefore lacking and each institution follows its own interests, frequently, to the exclusion of the common good … We have few options left. Either we put in place the necessary institutions with adequate powers to streamline the related activities to manage the resource or face the increasing distress with a growing population …



OSCE Baku Office invites Kazakhstan's environment experts to study Aarhus Centre in Azerbaijan

14 April 2005 - Environmental experts from Kazakhstan have studied the setting up and current work of the Azerbaijani Aarhus Centre during a study tour jointly organized by the OSCE Office in Baku and the OSCE Centre in Almaty ... "This is a very responsible step for Kazakhstan, since the Aarhus Convention is one of the important documents ensuring democratic developments in the environmental area." The trip was organized in view of the planned opening of an Aarhus Centre in the Kazakh capital Astana this summer. Kazakhstan is striving to make progress in implementing the Aarhus Convention, in the run-up to the second meeting of parties to the Convention, due to be held in Almaty from 25 to 27 May 2005. The Aarhus Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters is a new type of international agreement on environmental protection. It deals with ecological rights of people, accountability and transparency in environmental matters and the relations between civil society and state agencies. It therefore covers not only environmental protection, but also democracy …



Siehe auch:


WASSER AKTUELL 53 -    29.09.2004


... angekündigtes Manual ist zwischenzeitlich auch in englisch im Internet verfügbar:

9 November 2004: Guidelines on handling public requests for environmental information



Secretariat - Office of the Co-ordinator of OSCE Econommic and Environmental Activities



Joint UN-OSCE initiative for security and environment






Hinweis von Christiane Fröhlich, Forschungsstätte der Evangelischen Studiengemeinschaft (FEST) auf zwei Veröffentlichungen von:


Jan Selby, University of Sussex



Der Download ist kostenpflichtig. Ich kann mir aber vorstellen, dass die Beiträge an KollegInnen auf Anfrage aber auch so weitergegeben werden:


'Oil and water: the contrasting anatomies of resource conflicts',

Government and Opposition, Vol. 40, No. 2 (2005).



'The geopolitics of water in the Middle East: fantasies and realities',

Third World Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. 2 (2005).






Fließt uns das Wasser davon?

Ist ein Krieg um unser Wasser einmal denkbar?

1. - 3. Juni 2005

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung - Bildungszentrum Schloß Eichholz





Herzliche Grüße von der Elbe

Jörg Barandat




Hosted by www.Geocities.ws