Looking to the future -- BT Technology Timeline
Taking Lessons from Nature
Lessons and models taken from nature can be used to solve complex
problems. These two articles explore some of the opportunities.
The Future of ..... E-Business
A series of viewpoints 'on the future' of many aspects of our daily life
Towards life in 2020
No-one knows precisely what life will be like in 2020, but it is always
fun guessing. By determining the evolution of many different
technologies, it is possible to anticipate developments and when they
are likely to happen.
Here Ian Pearson, BTs futurologist at Adastral Park, looks into his
crystal ball to see what potential impact this will have on business and
social life and sets out a technology timeline to the year 2020.
Scenarios of future trends give us a better picture of how life might look,
although we must always bear in mind the fact that many things will
still turn out differently despite our best efforts. The technology timeline
in this article is based on predictions from BT researchers or from press
reports and conferences over the past few years and
represents just a small fraction of all the predictions identified. There is
always some uncertainty about development rates. Public acceptance,
political considerations, marketing and many other factors also affect
the likely date for achieving a particular event.
Dates included here are simply my best guess, and generally the
further in the future it is, the less accurate it is likely to be. No amount
of foresight can anticipate what will be invented in a few years by some
21st century genius.
Items listed here are based on known science and technology. As our
knowledge improves, the future may look even more exciting although
some things will never change. We will still need food and shelter, love,
status and self-fulfilment. And we will still squabble sometimes. These
human attributes are written into our DNA, and while we might begin to
tinker with that, some of this nature goes very deep indeed.
Computers
It is in computer-based technology that we may see the greatest
changes. By 2020, synthetic intelligent life forms will be sharing our
planet and may even have legal rights. They will catch up with human
intelligence before then in overall terms, though there will still be a few
things left that only people can do.
Most new knowledge will be developed by synthetic intelligence and we
will have to accept that we just dont understand some of it, while
accepting the resultant benefits. We will be led into the care economy,
where people gradually concentrate more on the human side of activity,
as machines gradually take over both physical and mental work.
Partnerships between man and machine will make our work more
productive and our play more enjoyable, augmenting the smallest spark
of creativity with machine intelligence. Even entertainment will be within
the machine domain, with todays crude computer game heroes and
heroines evolving to a whole range of entertainers, even chat show
hosts. It is even possible that some of our friends may be synthetic.
Since many of our relationships will be net-based, we wont even
necessarily know which of our friends are synthetic. By 2020, we can
expect to converse about anything with a smart machine which will
usually have the intelligence to implement appropriate requests.
Computers are likely to have faces and personalities and use
naturally-sounding voice synthesis.
The computers of 2020 will be ubiquitous but invisible, hidden in
infrastructure and in almost every device around us. They are likely to
be at least a 100,000 times faster than todays, maybe even a million
times. Memory for computers will be in the multi-petabit range, more
than the human brain. Storage will no longer be based on disks. Moving
parts are just not needed and will disappear, replaced by holographic
storage and a variety of other forms.
And of course, some computers will be mobile, on robots. They will
have an array of sensors comparable or superior to anything in the
natural world and will be used for jobs around the office and home as
well as in factories and agriculture. In some countries, robot
populations will approach that of humans by 2020. While millions of
robots will be small and insect-like, some will act as pets and toys, and
others will take part in sports.
Medicine
By 2020, new babies can expect to live to well over 100, perhaps to
130. In fact, for a while, life expectancy will increase faster than people
get older. With a greater understanding of the body, we will be able to
treat many more conditions, much more successfully than today. By
2020, more than 95 per cent of body parts by weight could be replaced
by synthetic alternatives. Many organs, and perhaps even limbs, could
be replaced by fully organic replacements, grown in a laboratory.
Information technology will be used to give everyone a full multimedia
medical record, including operation videos and scans. Well be wearing
health monitors, checking our emotional and physical state
automatically, and helping us reduce stress. Business and society
Improving technology will revolutionise the way we do business and
earn our living. Only a few people will be needed to staff our agricultural
and manufacturing industries, and most of todays service industries
can be largely automated too. People will focus much more on
inter-personal roles with most companies using a top-down virtual
company model, bringing in staff on a
project-by-project basis who will use advanced communications to work
together from anywhere as if they were in the same office. Workers will
change
jobs frequently, but wont want to move house each time, so they will
most likely make use of the abundant teleworking centres, full of
IT-equipped hot desks.
Education
Students will be able to attend key lectures via the net, or learn by
experience, interacting with simulations in advanced computer
systems. Gifted superstar teachers will have huge followings around the
world. By 2020, virtual environments will be used in education, as well
as in leisure and entertainment. Even today, a giant hamster-ball
mounted on an air bearing allows a person to wander around a
computer generated space projected onto the outside of the ball.
Adding the active contact lenses that we expect around 2010, this
could be both high resolution and fully three dimensional, and with a
direct link into the nervous system to create sensation synthetically,
we have all we need to produce the holodeck. Environments may be
created for leisure, entertainment, sports, education, shopping, and
even business meetings. We are only limited by human imagination in
the short term, and in the 2020 time frame, even that wont be a limit as
computers will design new places for us to explore.
Society
With many more retired people, younger people will increasingly be
called on to pay higher taxes towards pensions. Tension resulting from
this might cause some conflict between the generations, but we might
also see people making use of teleworking technology to effectively
emigrate or at least reduce their local tax bills by taking remuneration
in other forms such as information products and entertainment.
But loneliness will become much less of a problem for old people as
they keep in touch with friends and relatives via large screens with
life-size images.
Energy and environment
Developments in solar power and other forms of renewable energy will
be further developed although nuclear fusion wont be available by 2020.
The environment will start to improve as we substitute fossil fuels. Many
people will greatly mistrust mega-corporations and choose to have
much greater involvement in the production of their food. Farming
co-operatives will effectively outsource peoples vegetable plots,
producing food according to individual consumer demand. By 2020,
sensors will be extensively deployed in the countryside, monitoring
everything from climate to insect population and genetic crossovers. If
insect pollination has suffered due to greater pesticide use
accompanying increased use of genetically modified crops, then we
may see widespread use of robotic insects to do this job.
In the home
Gadget lovers will have digital bathroom mirrors, wristwatch cameras,
virtual fish tanks and electronic paintings, set against electronic
wallpaper that adjusts to the mood of the inhabitants and reduces
background noise. Intelligent gadgets that anticipate what you want and
often get it wrong will bring about cases of kitchen rage, and also a new
breed of technician, the robotic psychiatrist. Most gadgets will have
interactive voice response, with most of the boxes hidden under the
stairs, communicating with electronic pets living in the lounge. The
most traditional pub might be one that uses digital windows so that you
can watch the horses and carts outside, with all the noises and smells
of times gone by, while the 21st century is cunningly disguised.
Cyberspace will increasingly affect every area of life, with a global
internet penetration of 75 per cent by 2020. We will take access to the
net for granted wherever we are. Cordless communication will be the
norm long before then, but the infrastructure will still be fibre, probably
all the way to the home. But capacity will be a problem. Even on optical
fibre. increasing demand means that one day, we will approach the
maximum capacity of fibre, something considered infinite not so long
ago. We will be wearing not just watches and phones but jewellery that
reacts to our emotional state, personality badges advertising our
presence to others of like mind, translators, and cameras built into our
glasses to monitor whatever we see.
Conflict
With video cameras everywhere linked to automated recognition
systems, and with all electronic transactions potentially monitored,
people may feel watched in everything they do, and may be right. Such
a high degree of electronic intrusion into peoples lives, coupled with
many jobs being automated, may lead to a backlash, with many people
trying to form a parallel society using lower technology and aiming for
more traditional lifestyles.
Money
By 2020, at least one universal electronic currency will used on any
web site, or at any till in any shop, anywhere in the developed world. As
the net gradually becomes the standard platform for most commercial
activity, this global currency will soon become the currency of choice,
causing the dollar, euro and yen to evaporate into oblivion. In a world of
strong electronic signatures, encryption, and integrated systems, there
is no longer any need to put money in a bank and many people may
choose not to do so, keeping control of it themselves. Banks will be
forced to add many new services or go out of business.
Transport
We will need a fully integrated road traffic information and management
system to cope with the extra load. Computers might negotiate the
appropriate slots on the motorways to guarantee we get there on time,
long before we leave, and will automatically re-route in case of problems
en-route. All we have to do is sit back and watch as the car
automatically takes us there. Many of our vehicles will be powered by
non-polluting hydrogen fuel cells.
Ian Pearson would like to thank Andy Gower, David Mercer, Fiona
Mackenzie, Gary Dalton, Greg Mulhauser, Ken Totton, Kim Fisher,
Paul Marrow, Pauline Rigby, Peter Cochrane, and Stephen Thompson
for their help in providing information. After graduating in Applied Maths
and Theoretical Physics in 1981 from Queens University, Belfast, Ian
Pearson spent four years in missile design before moving to BT
Laboratories where he worked on IT information technology, including
computer systems analysis to the design of high-speed protocols for
use over optical fibre. For the last eight years he has been a
futurologist, anticipating trends in technology and working out the likely
consequences for business and society. He has written two books and
many papers on thesubject, several of which have received awards.
This article was originally published in the internal BT Journal
Competitive Edge. A fuller discussion of the issues raised can be
found within the online Millennium Edition of the British Telecom
Technology Journal (BTTJ) at http://www.bt.com/bttj/vol18no1/
© British Telecommunications plc 2000
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Looking to the future - BT Technology Timeline
2000
Artificial blood
Wristwatch camera
Two billion smart cards produced a year
Fingerprint recognition access to mobile phones
TV on mobile phones
Speech dialling
2001
Positioning sound at any point in space
First Robolympics held in Japan
Automatic hacker detection using pattern matching
Enhance data rate GSM evolution systems
Cordless home networks using Bluetooth, Piano or Jini
Portable voice translators
2002
Software Lego
One chip, multi-speaker voice recognition
Go-anywhere personal numbering
Use of talking head technology for conferencing
Single sheet PC or TV with processing built into display
Automated catalogue shopping using Calling Line Identification
2003
First synthetic (but organic) life form
Chips on foods tell when food is at its best
Avatar cosmetic surgery
Europa orbiter launch (search for water on Europa)
600 million mobile communication devices worldwide
Wide range of wearable electronic devices
UMTS launch (2002-2003)
2004
Instant electronic diagnosis of illnesses
Telepresence extensively used in rural clinics
Displays with image quality comparable to paper
People have cyberspace wardrobe
Cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells
300 gigabit CD-ROMs
2005
Intelligent robotic pets
Personal wearable health monitor
Paperless working (at least internally) the norm in most UK business
Effective management of the organic environment
Full voice interaction with machine
Talking head technology used in public terminals
Solid State replacement for CD
Shopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets
Global electronic currency in use
Folding watch computers
2006
First artificial electronic life
First organism brought back from extinction
Retrieval from 1 terabit database within 10 seconds
Doorstep videophone allowing remote interaction with callers
2007
Totally automated factories
All new cars fitted with positioning systems as standard
On-line voting in UK
First net war between cyber-communities
2008
All government services delivered electronically
Personalised response from household gadgets
Mars lander returns soil samples to Earth
10 per cent of UK shopping is electronic
Phone boxes using optical wireless
2009
Chips with 1 billion transistors
Photonic crystal fibre
2010
Highest paid star is synthetic
Artificial heart (lab-cultured or entirely synthetic)
Less than 20 per cent of UK workforce in manufacturing
25 per cent of UK workforce teleworking at least 2 days a week
95 per cent of people in advanced nations computer literate
Effective prediction of most natural disasters
Neighbourhood video surveillance networks
Electronic wallpaper
Supercomputers with speed exceeding 1 ExaFLOPS
Electronic fish in aquaria
Jargon translators
Most weapons attack systems rather than injure people
90 per cent of calls tetherless
2011
World population reaches 7 billion
Most software written by machine
Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities
2012
Insect-like robots used for crop pollination
DNA computer
Personal banking replaced by agents
2013
Computer agents start being thought of as colleagues instead of tools
Kitchen rage caused by electronic gadgets
2014
Fleet of garden robots for plant and lawn care and tidying
Automated stenographers
2015
3-D video conferencing
Seabed gas hydrate crystals used as fuel source
25 per cent of UK shopping is network based
First manned mission to Mars
Near Earth space tours
Cars that drive themselves a few feet apart on smart highways
2016
Housework robots for cleaning and washing
Most towns echoed in cyberspace
2017
Self diagnostic self repairing robots
Human knowledge exceeded by machine knowledge
2018
1 Petabit memory chip
Biosensors capable of processing information
2019
Major pensions crisis
Actuators resembling human muscles
2020
Artificial insects and small animals with artificial brains
Less than 10 per cent of UK workforce in manufacturing
Deep underground cities in Japan
Retirement age raised to 70
Smart skin for intelligent clothing and direct human repair
Flying wing planes carrying a thousand passengers 6,000 miles at
600 mph
Author Ian Pearson, Futurologist, BT Adastral Park for BT's
Competitive Edge magazine
© British Telecommunications plc 2000
Taking Lessons from Nature
Nature may still have many to teach us in the development and
management of increasingly complex systems.
The traditional approaches to system and software design which
engineers have been forced to rely on, are notoriously brittle. Designers
are typically forced into an often-vain attempt to accurately capture all
relevant constraints and behaviours. Once implemented systems are
usually slow to change in the face of new circumstances, often failing
catastrophically in unexpected situations.
Nature seems very different.
In comparison, it is profligate and even "gung-ho" in its operation. The
natural ecologies we see around us are complex communities of
interacting populations and individuals. Genetics and sexual
reproduction provide an engine for the generation of rival solutions to
changing surroundings and Darwinian selection acts as a merciless
judge and jury. As a result, life is all around us, stunning in its diversity,
hanging on in even the most extreme ecological niches - constantly
ready to adapt to radical changes in the environment.
These processes are incredibly effective - witness, for example, the rise
of antibiotic resistant bacteria and the success of rapidly mutating
viruses such as influenza.
As designers - of systems, businesses, value chains or societies,
nature therefore seems, a fertile hunting ground for reliable, dynamic,
parallel approaches to computation and problem solving.
As we move to a world of "connectedness", where every-day items,
processes and businesses are part of larger fluid, interconnected
systems - where better to look for guidance than the ultimate in
dynamic networked systems?
We have seen some early applications of systems derived from models
of nature - for example the use of artificial neural networks (based on
our developing understanding of the chemistry, structure and processes
of the human brain) in problems such as pattern classification and
speech recognition
Other examples have been widely discussed - for example the use of
ant-like behavioural models in the management of dynamic traffic
patterns and the rapid derivation of quasi-optimal solutions to problems
such as the travelling salesman resource allocation task.
In this paper by Richard Tateson et al of the Future Technologies Group
at BT's Adastral Park, the author looks at a number of interesting
experiments including:
Use of a model of competitive inter-cellular activity on eyes of
fruit-flies to manage the allocation of frequency bands within
cellular phone networks.
Use of the flocking behaviour of fish and birds, to aid
visualisation and mining of complex datasets.
Use of an analysis of enzyme actions to design an "information
chemistry" architecture for combinatorial problems such as
sorting.
This is not an academic issue.
We are entering the age of software agents - autonomous units of
software collaborating in cyberspace to achieve complex results, for
example personalisation and negotiation. In many cases, such agents
will act as our personal proxies - mediating the huge volumes of
information that will surround us or conducting transactions on our
behalf.
As these agents become more complex, more adaptive, more able to
seek opportunity and as we trust an increasing amount of economic
activity to them, we will rapidly create an extremely complex, dynamic,
virtual ecology permeating and interconnecting many aspects of real
world.
The emergent behaviours of information ecologies will have enormous
implications for all of us as individuals, companies, jurisdictions and
economies - and these may be hard to predict.
Nature in its full complex, adaptive, unforgiving glory has a lot to teach
us.
This article is reproduced with the permission of BT Technology Journal
http://www.bt.com/bttj/vol18no1/
© British Telecommunications plc 2000